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Webast link for anyone that missed the presentation this morning.

https://www.investis-live.com/itv/65ae9816bacfa60c00b892a8/wopwp

We now know the buyback cap is 402.5 million shares.

But we also know there is just under 2% open short interest - and once these investors hit their profit or loss target they are also forced buyers to close, and 2% of available shares is about 81 million shares.

So the market needs to find just under 0.48 billion shares in the near future which is just under 12% of the 4.05 billion available.

SimplyWallSt also tells us that the general public / retail owns just under 5% of the available shares.

Which means that a large shareholder will have to become a motivated seller - and the only possible motivation is price - and they will want a profit - which I doubt exists for any of the major shareholders below £1.

Liberty, RWC, Schroders, Silchester etc etc are all major (and long term) major shareholders. Good luck getting their shares.

So … based on the 2 bits of text below. We know MS will be buying ITV shares - then selling them in to ITV (at a profit if possible I expect?!) - and also that MS may engage in hedging (derivatives?).

So what is their strategy here? Force DOWN the price aggressively then scoop up cheap shares before flipping them back to ITV??

Could be some fun & games ahead.

“…and the on-sale of such Shares by Morgan Stanley to ITV.”

“Morgan Stanley may undertake transactions in Shares (which may include sales and hedging activities, in addition to purchases) in order to manage its market exposure under the Programme.”

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ITV/itv-plc-share-purchase-programme/16365894

Shame - easy target - but media always focuses on the negative right? We love to read about murders, not birthday parties.

Total revenue down only 2% seems better than expected.

Dividend maintained.

Lots of positive narrative.

Feeling confident. But market is always unpredictable on ITV results day…

Well we have reached the close... results out 7am.

I predicted 62p today, didn't make it, almost did with a boost after the Budget, but still an up day just under 61p and to be honest being up the day before results is a miracle in itself for this share!

Still hoping for a slightly increased divided...

My dividend punt is : Final 3.8p which alongside the prior interim 1.7p would equal a full year of 5.5p

(This is versus expected 1.7p + 3.3p = 5.0p )

Good luck all - see you in the moring....

“Is it concrete?”

Well either I cut & pasted it from Sky News or I just randomly made it up - you decide! :)

Some film studios to benefit from 40% gross business rates relief until 2034

The chancellor now turns to support for the creative industries, saying the UK has become "Europe's largest film and TV production centre".

Jeremy Hunt says studio space has doubled in the last three years and he is "committed to providing more tax relief for visual effects in film and high-end TV".

As part of that, he announces there will be a 5% increase in the rate of tax credit and the 80% cap for visual effects costs will be removed in the Audio-Visual Expenditure Credit.

Eligible film studios in England will also benefit from a 40% relief on their gross business rates until 2034, he adds.

Chancellor announces multiple tax breaks for TV Studios

Sure but we all know those politicians are mainly worried about countries like China.

Nobody would bat an eyelid if eg Apple or Walt Disney wanted to own ITV - it doesn't read across to the US Gov for example...

"to stop foreign governments from taking over UK media"

I hope it's more likely a private company makes a bid than a government(!).

Liberty Global holds 10%, and nothing stopping another private tech/media/TV company from anywhere globally holding the same percentage - or going further and making a bid.

Agree with other poster - Competition and Markets authority would decide. Politicians just make noise.

Today’s closing price will be very interesting as it represents the hopes and fears of all ITV shareholders large and small prior to reading the results announcement tomorrow at 7am while the market is closed…

Shall we play a game? What is your prediction?

I’ll go with 62p close today. :)

Yes - but the point is you’ve not discovered something shockingly new - the drop in advertising revenue has been talked about by ITV and market commentators for most of the last year. That’s why we’re at 60p not 90p.

It’s priced in then.

It would not make sense for this to be reiterated yet again in the results Thursday and anyone, unless they’ve lived on the moon for the last year, to be surprised and panic sell. Again.

In theory then the only real potential surprise would be a more positive narrative supporting a share price recovery. Let’s see what happens tomorrow…!

Read the RNS.

ITV unveils new celebrity Jaws reality show with actual sharks

The premiere is set to coincide with the 50th anniversary of the Spielberg film.

https://www.digitalspy.com/tv/reality-tv/a60058272/itv-jaws-reality-show-sharks/

“In a quiet but significant move, ITV has pulled the plug on its ITV Catchup channel on Amazon’s Prime Video“

https://www.cordbusters.co.uk/itv-catchup-axed-prime-video/

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/3-ftse-250-stocks-consider-060000658.html

Https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/03/hit-shows-such-as-mr-bates-could-bring-a-dramatic-improvement-in-itvs-fortunes

Sale achieves net £253m

We don’t know what prices the buyback tranches will be at but let’s go with all at 65p a share for now.

That cancels 361.5m shares.

ITV shareholder page states:

“The Company’s issued share capital is 4,025,409,194 ordinary shares”

So should leave around 3.663 billion shares to share the same dividend pot - ie approx 9% more per share all things being equal.

ITV currently pays 1.7p interim and 3.3p final total 5p for year.

Therefore I’m going to stick my neck out and say final dividend may be increased by at least 0.5p to 3.8p (total 5.5p for year).

It’s not often a company can sell an asset that everybody has forgotten about - which generates 10% of the market cap!

Just underlines how unrealistic the market cap is. And with the buyback - this will cancel a lot of shares. Think it’s roughly just over 4 billion in issue currently - so should take it well under that amount.

And I agree with most posters - sends a message the dividend is safe / covered - which takes a concern away.

Only going in one direction from my point of view - not selling!