Member Info for BigEgo

Omalley123

Timberrrrrr.....

Hardly.

More like a tissue drifting away in the breeze…

No politics. This is the ITV thread.

Tubi? Yeah the “advertisers” must be climbing over each other to book slots.

If by “advertisers” we mean donkey charities and double glazing firms. lol.

Google: What are the most watched shows on Tubi?

Most Popular

MasterChef. 2023

NYPD Blue. 2005. TV-14. Drama · Crime.

The Flintstones. 1960. TV-G. Kids & Family

Columbo. 2003. TV-PG. Mystery · Crime

Plus a zillion Bollywood movies… yawn.

@contrarian123 - Hope you're still around fella. This shows why it's important to ignore negativity! :)

"contrarian123

Posts: 1,802

Price: 63.78

No Opinion

RE: XMAS Present To Myself...22 Dec 2023 11:22

Jesus

you must be a first rate mug"

Since my 22 Dec 2023 post on LSE, I have continued to add and now hold > 1m ITV shares, average in the low 60s. Unrealised profit is £200k+. Annual dividends are £50k+ (nice!)

Obviously I am really pleased where the price is 6 months later, however I see no reason to sell, and will continue compounding my position size by adding monthly and reinvesting all dividends... roll on 25 July interim results and the 1.7p dividend announcement (or more please!) ;)

"BigEgo

Posts: 275

XMAS Present To Myself...22 Dec 2023 11:00

Hi all,

So today I have bought 910,171 shares on ITV.L as a XMAS present to myself..."

Dipmytoein = the 8.5m was most likely shares taken from Treasury to be used in an employee share option scheme - as reusing these shares is cheaper/easier than issuing new shares.

For a little while the RNS was wrong - stating the same number of shares repurchased as the number held in treasury - of course treasury was lower due to the deduction. However thankfully this error was spotted recently and the current RNS messages show the correct numbers, as per 20 June RNS:

"the Company holds 63,655,643 of its ordinary shares in treasury"

and 8.5m higher:

"the Company has repurchased 72,155,643 ordinary shares "

Bear in mind 85p is just the value of the ITV Studios part - I calculate the rest of ITV Group is worth between 40p and 60p depending on how you do it. So total enterprise would be 125p to 145p.

ITV’s valuation case (Updated!)

In November 2022 Investors Chronicle published a great article by financial writer Jemma Slingo - that quoted calculations by “Thomas Singlehurst, head of European media equity research at Citigroup”.

It was the first time I had learned that the sum of ITVs parts might be greater than the ITV Group valuation, based on the full year results 2022.

So now the full year results 2023 are available I thought it would be interesting to try and recreate the calculation and see if it still stands up.

There are a couple of caveats to this.

Firstly an EV Factor Benchmark of 13.8 was used based on FL Entertainment at the time. Looking for the current EV Factor for FL / Banijay throws up a range of numbers around 12/13 or so (I’m sure Thomas has access to much better data than we do!) - so I’m just going to stick with the prior number for a simple comparison.

Secondly the calculation mentions ‘subtracting the relevant debt’ which is unclear however it looks like 623m was deducted which coincidentally was the 2022 net debt - but for the whole ITV Group not just ITV Studios - so again for a simple comparison I will use the net debt figure in the 2023 results of 553m.

Ok so now it’s just a simple calculation. In the first row of the image linked below I show the method to arrive at the original articles 74p value for ITV Studios.

And in the second row using 2023 results we get 85p.

So, caveats aside, in summary I think the original articles premise still holds:

“The conglomerate discount is now so acute at ITV that you don’t just get the broadcast business for free – you actually get it at a negative value,” argued Thomas Singlehurst.

Https://ibb.co/jvhgYCC

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/11/24/the-price-is-right-itv-s-valuation-case/

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/british-broadcasters-growing-faster-netflix-164719117.html

Very strong straight out of the gate…

Still keeping an eye on the pink price zone in this chart posted 31/05:

Https://i.ibb.co/R72hZ2f/ITV.png

The full ITVX May Debrief slide deck is a good read.

https://d3sebdkplhxau9.cloudfront.net/3017/1863/2068/ITVX_Debrief_May_2024.pdf

Https://i.ibb.co/Vw4fy1J/ITV.png

Serious question - so what would you do if they go up 5% instead?

Would you accept a 5.5% smaller position with the same funds after stamp duty cost , or would you add 5.5% new cash to buy back the same position?

Another way to interpret it - ITV have up to 240m EUR available to cancel debit at a low rate of 1.375% - which they would only do if they had spare cash rolling in. This is very interesting!

You're right! I read it too quickly - its not a new issuance - its offering existing holders early repayment effectively.

RNS

"today an invitation to holders of its outstanding €600,000,000 1.375 per cent. Notes due 26 September 2026 (ISIN: XS2050543839) (the Notes) to tender such Notes for purchase by the Offeror for cash (such invitation, the Offer), subject to the satisfaction or waiver of the New Issue Condition (as defined below)."

Looks like ITV has spare funds to cancel some of it's existing debt! Wow!

"Subject as set out herein, up to €240,000,000 in aggregate nominal amount"

If I am reading this right - they have upto £240m EUR available to cancel some of this debt if the holders want to. Wow again!

Just appears to be normal debt management operation.

Companies issue bonds at a certain rate payment back on a certain date.

This offer is "€600,000,000 1.375 per cent. Notes due 26 September 2026"

So institutions can buy and get a return due 2026. Looks like a really low rate though - will anyone take it up? If so ITV gets access to cheap funding if needed.

Correction,

Current Voting Rights (including Adjustments ) : 4,005,550,995

Https://i.ibb.co/N7cG70T/ITV.png

That "love island junk" attracts viewers, which attracts advertisers, which generates profits, which credits dividends into your account twice a year! ;)

On 03/03/2022 ITV crashed on news of investment required in ITVX, taking it down from 110p... (1st blue ellipse in chart below)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-03/itv-plunges-after-revealing-itvx-streaming-platform-investment

Here is a 7 year weekly chart back to early 2017 - showing a wedge that is interesting as it includes not just the COVID related fall but also the big daily range on that fateful day - projected forward using a pink box. Price has barely explored this area again apart from a brief foray in 2023.

You can clearly see that ITVs price has been stuck in this falling wedge with a few contact points (green circles), supported by four resistance areas under 60p.

Personally I think that once we re-enter the pink area which has had little price discovery - ITV will take off through this range (2nd blue ellipse) and beyond...!

Price has already managed to break out of the wedge on the far right - and has been building a base ready for entry into the pink area above...

https://i.ibb.co/R72hZ2f/ITV.png