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Also from the Redwheel article - I’m holding ITV for the exact same reason…

“As value investors, we are always on the lookout for a bargain but there are occasions when the market puts such a low valuation on a business, that you are essentially paying nothing for one part of it. By buying at a discount, this strategy builds in a ‘margin of safety’ and whilst in the short term an undervalued company’s share price might fall further, in the long run the built-in value should ultimately be recognised by other investors, prompting the share price to rise to reflect the stock’s intrinsic value.”

Interesting 13/11 public comment by Redwheel on Sky / ITV deal; they value Studios at “£2.5bn – £3.75bn” and call zero Media & Entertainment valuation “silly”.

“ITV was one of our original ‘In for free’ stocks, as we have long believed that the Studios business accounted for the market cap of the entire group and hence the Media and Entertainment (M&E) business was being valued at zero by investors. The Studios business is now nearly as large the M&E business. According to management guidance, Studios is expected to generate more than £2bn in revenue in the 2025 financial year, compared with £2bn in 2024. Based on the company’s forecast for an adjusted earnings before ‘EBITA’ margin of between 13% and 15%, this implies statutory operating profit in the region of £200m to £250m . Given the strong growth, fragmented industry, and healthy profitability, we believed that a fair price for that income stream should be anywhere between £2.5bn – £3.75bn, against an enterprise value for the entire of ITV of £3.1bn. Therefore, it seems that, at today’s prices, we are being given the M&E business for nothing – an attractive price no matter the long-term trajectory of those earnings.

As this blog was about to be released, news emerged that ITV are in talks with Sky (owned by Comcast) to sell their Media and Entertainment business for £2bn and the share price rocketed up 20% on the day . Whilst this deal may never come to fruition, it does demonstrate that a valuation of zero for this business was on the silly side.”

Https://www.redwheel.com/us/en/accredited/insights/in-for-free-revisited-2/

ITVs biggest (8.4% as at 1st Oct) shareholder Redwheel (RWC Holdings) also took a 5.25% stake in WPP in November, which is now also attracting interest - adding to a very interesting end of year for the hedge fund.

“Outsider investors have been circling WPP for months. Earlier in November, U.K.-based investor Redwheel acquired a 5.25% stake in the holding company.”

Https://www.adweek.com/agencies/havas-reportedly-exploring-a-deal-with-wpp/

“Stricken WPP draws takeover interest as FTSE 100 demotion looms”

Https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/wpp-ftse-100-demotion-bidders-6p9p2ptfp

Https://www.redwheel.com/uk/en/institutional/

“Insiders expect CEO Carolyn McCall will look to sell the Studios business next, which could fetch roughly £3.5bn.”

Yes everyone on the ITV discussion boards is thinking that too!

I am also thinking £1.6b + £3.5b - £0.5b debt = £4.6b / 3.75b shares = 122p which is +54% above Fridays 79p close. In my opinion ITV is now heavily supported here and basically waiting to explode above an approx 84p medium term resistance - and once it does it’s not coming back down here. There I said it. Others may disagree! :)

Https://mediacat.uk/itv-wants-sale-sky-wants-scale/amp/

From Huckers @ ADVFN:

“US fingerprints all over UK broadcast shake-up, as Sky bids for ITV”

Https://rethinkresearch.biz/articles/us-fingerprints-all-over-uk-broadcast-shake-up-as-sky-bids-for-itv-free-to-read/

“Enders estimates combined ITV-Sky sales would hold 30% of UK video ad market”

“Overall, it calculated that tech giants Google, Meta and Amazon account for 55% of the total UK ad market but, narrowed down to just video, Sky Media and ITV Media would hold just over 30%, a share that would be “very likely to decline over time”.”

(Requires free registration)

Https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/enders-estimates-combined-itv-sky-sales-hold-30-uk-video-ad-market/1939755

Oh dear. This will need Gov intervention - damages like this would destroy the BBC.

Maybe just give Trump ITV and call it quits. Yes humour again!

“Donald Trump has said he will sue the BBC for between $1bn and $5bn over the editing of his speech on Panorama.”

Https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-confirms-he-will-sue-the-bbc-over-panorama-edit-despite-apology-13470587

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/ITV.L/history/

10 Nov 80.00

11 Nov 81.00

14 Nov 79.00

Bear with me, I like numbers :)

ITV trades in 0.01 pence increments so there are 100 possible endings (.00 to .99)

A quick glance at the ITV closing price history link above, especially if you scroll back a few months, shows that .00 happens rarely, or 1% of the time as you would expect.

2 days in a row is quite rare. We’ve now had 3 over a 5 day period, super rare!

So what’s going on? Well with a little help from ChatGPT:

✔ Auction dynamics are present on the LSE:

Institutional traders submit large Market-On-Close (MOC) and Limit-On-Close (LOC) orders. Round numbers have:

• more resting liquidity

• larger visible limit-order stacks

• algo anchoring points

✔ ITV exhibits unusually high round-number liquidity, which often happens when:

• a stock is in play (news, rumours, deal speculation)

• institutions place large resting orders at big levels (70p, 80p, etc.)

• momentum pauses at psychological thresholds

ITV right now ticks all three boxes:

Surging price, huge volume, takeover speculation, and round-number clustering.

📌 Conclusion

Seeing 3 .00 closes in 5 days is a signal that the price is magnetised around round-number liquidity levels — typical in periods of elevated interest or deal chatter.

All the people replying to posters like that are just providing fuel to the fire.

I filter. You should filter. Then you don’t see their messages and you don’t reply to them either.

If you keep replying they keep posting.

FFS I just want to read ITV articles not constant bickering with idiots. Stop or I will filter you too!

Well well well, how the turntables. (!)

Https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-and-reeves-ditch-plans-to-raise-income-tax-in-budget-13470025

Looks like Johnny Consumer will be able to afford an ITVX subscription after all.

Yes this is humour!

Mainly I think it demonstrates the danger of making any decision, investment or otherwise based on rumours.

Like the thousands of people who rushed to take their 25% pension lump sums fearing it would be scrapped in the last couple of budgets and wasn’t - then wanted to pay it back in!

Yes something will be taxed for sure. But it might not have the immediacy of a deduction from people’s monthly wage packet. It could be freezing bands for more years, tax by stealth, or taxing things people don’t tend to think about all the time like inheritance or indeed pension benefits like salary sacrifice.

The lens of no immediate wage packet hit ‘might’ could be positive for markets and shares currently considered to be ‘held back’ by budget rumours / fears. And I think we all agree ITV is one such case.

Get past the budget.

Get past the 60 day lockup date (either Liberty sell last 5%, good riddance, or they don’t, yay they’re hanging in there) and let’s see where we are.

2026 will be a strong year for ITV thanks to the World Cup for example.

Ideally we reach May and get the larger final dividend before anything is finalised on the Comcast / Sky approach. That’s 6 months and a perfectly normal timeline for complex deals like separating 2 inter linked business divisions.

“The best investment advice is often the most straightforward. Buy quality businesses at reasonable prices, hold them for long periods, and ignore the noise. Everything else is a distraction.”

Yes 2026 will be a year to shoot the lights out - thanks to the World Cup and Six Nations.

Sky know this. It’s a cheeky offer.

£1.6bn is not enough!

Great write up of the Palooza event McCall spoke at.

Also - wow - “And then came the chart.”

A sea of yellow. Awesome ITV.

Https://omaroakes.substack.com/p/itv-palooza-the-last-great-show-in

“When a company you own suddenly moves from “unloved value” to “potential takeover candidate,” many investors sell too early, missing the real payoff if the process plays out - give the catalysts time to unfold…”

:)

Exclusive find(!)

“ITV addresses the Sky takeover speculation”

“In her opening speech, ITV chief executive Carolyn McCall immediately addressed Sky’s proposed £1.6bn acquisition of ITV Media & Entertainment, saying that though nothing further can be added to the official statement at this stage, she and the team would “remain completely focused on ITV”.”

“She said: “You’ve all seen the press speculation regarding a possible sale of our M&E business. As you can imagine, we can’t say anything more about that now. What we can say is that we will remain completely focused on ITV, and we are continuing to deliver with great energy our strategy. And, of course, we are brilliantly serving our viewers and advertisers, and intend to continue to do so with great shows and engaged audiences.”

Though ITV remained tight-lipped about the deal, the proposal remained a hot topic of conversation among attendees.”

Https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/itv-palooza-stars-70-years-ads-elephant-barbican/1939437

82p touched

And we get our 1.7p dividend on 25th

Shame about the timing I’d rather have reinvested it at 68p!

From the 67.7p close on 6th ITV has now risen 21%

Well, I was wondering this - surely other media companies would delight in blocking Comcast’s plans?

They are always scrapping and trying to get one over on each other, blocking bids and generally misbehaving!

Everyone in the industry worldwide knows about the potential changes at ITV now - so the question is are any boardrooms plotting counter moves or are they just gonna sit back and watch? Doubt.

ITV continues to embrace social media and the younger audience in the hunt for revenue.

“ITV Announces Advertising Partnership With TikTok”

Https://www.itv.com/presscentre/presscentre/presscentre/media-releases/itv-announces-advertising-partnership-tiktok-pulse-premiere

I almost don’t want to sell it!

“ITVX SMASHES STREAMING RECORDS, HITTING 3 BILLION STREAMS”

Https://www.itv.com/presscentre/presscentre/presscentre/media-releases/itvx-smashes-streaming-records-hitting-3-billion-streams

Https://news.williamhill.com/tv/bbc-director-general-odds-2025/