Member Info for BigDano

In relation to query around Expedia selling package holidays. Expedia have many partners in their network and have a partnership going with TC since 2017 which may have grown to be selling TC packages.

https://skift.com/2018/09/24/thomas-cook-looks-to-expedia-for-vacation-rental-access/

http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/308795/thomas-cook-launches-hotel-booking-platform-with-expedia

https://www.thomascookgroup.com/news/20122018/thomas-cooks-expedia-group-alliance-now-live-in-all-key-markets?ref=Home

https://www.prolificnorth.co.uk/news/digital-agency-news/2019/06/thomas-cook-airlines-moves-marketing-team-london-manchester

Quisty - Bookings are Guided at 12% reduction in line with reduced capacity - FACT.

Funny post MP0818, in this business you should take note of the soundbites leading up to quarter results.

http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/335170/thomas-cook-to-open-a-cooks-club-and-casa-cook-in-egypts-el-gouna-resort

Will Waggott, chief of tour operating, said Cook bookings for this summer were up by 15% for Egypt and by 57% for winter 2019-2020 compared with last year.

Expect we might see an EBIT that exceeds market expectations for Q3. The board and new CFO set this up to get rid of all the auxiliary costs in Q2 so that Q3 margins will be maximized.

The board is clever??. Get all shit out In Q2. AND forecast Q3 to be shit. Hope the weather not to be shit. Q3 Weather is actually shit. Q3 results are they going to be shit?. We have had shit weather, did they say the worst in 20 years?.. maybe I'm talking shit!..

They will dismantle the planes and sell as scrap metal or they will just fly them!.

Michael o Leary(Ryanair)is quite brilliant and it wouldn't surprise me if Ryanair disrupted the bidding process for the airline. He has a past history of telling the media one thing and then doing the opposite. His intentions are to grow in Germany and not let Lufthansa dominate the market. He could well be in the running for TC.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0618/1055962-germany-the-battleground-in-european-aviation-war/

I couldn't find any revenue numbers on TC Sport but it would seem that it continues to be a growing business year on year..

https://www.mirror.co.uk/travel/uk-ireland/premier-league-offers-huge-uk-16511045

"No signs that anyone is prepared to reduce capacity therefore we would anticipate the wave of consolidation in European short haul is not over.”

Lufthansa have a massive war chest and buying TC will also give them guaranteed bums on seats.

Its game on and will be positioned to Lufthansa shareholders as necessary to help turn around the loss making eurowings

I don't live in the UK and wasnt referring to the UK. The weather does have a major impact on all tour operators. A failing to understand or ignore that basic concept means you don't understand the holiday business.

A record 12 weeks here in the Nordics in 2018 resulted in numerous people deciding to holiday at home.

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/attribution-of-the-2018-heat-in-northern-europe/

Weather so far this year has been very poor it continues and the Nordic region will be going on holidays. TC news of collapsing is not an issue here as the general public only see Thomas Cook, Airtours, Ving and Neckermann all of which are under the TC brand.

Agreed and the H1 assessment on the outlook for H2 was that underlying EBIT to be behind the same period of last year. With the adverse weather hopefully the bookings are ahead of projections thus giving a more favourable EBIT number and positive results for a change. Likely to have got the RNS on the airline before the results are out so hopefully we have a run of positive weeks ahead.

More poor press for Boeing and thus bad news for TUI - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/15/boeing-dreamliner-b787-safety-fears?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Gmail

2 weeks left to close of Q3 trading period. Weather has certainly helped, I wonder how much of a positive impact it has had on the booking numbers. This time last year the warm weather had a serious impact on bookings as noted in the 2018 Q3 results report.

Another wet and cold day.. this weather keeps up and the Q3 results are going to be more positive than the PF outlook that was given to the market when delivering the 1/2 year results update.

Shark.. "TC has so much retail space on long leases where they are only incurring more and more losses" - how do you know how many shops are on long leases?. Do you know how many are going to close this quarter when leases are up?. Do some research and stick to facts and stop spouting rubbish.

"Of course, a strong summer would preclude the need to reach down the back of the sofa. “We have the facility in case we need it,” says Fankhauser. "

If the weather remains across Norther Europe as it so far then a strong summer is guaranteed and there will be no reaching down the sofa..

I think Fosun won't have any issue with the Nordic tour business being sold but Triton will have to pay top price if they want to get it.

I'm going to hold out for the long haul, I may sell a small portion after the airline sale. I would like to see it hit 76p purely because it was the price I paid during the rights issue which was a pretty small holding compared to what I'm currently holding.

I sold a 3rd of my portfolio last week to top up here and I'm going to sell more to top up further on Monday. Here's my view. Fosun know they can't bid until the airline sells which also means they buy the brand they have been chasing for years with low to no debt. I see the sale at being in the 1B region because TC will sell the Nordic tour business to Triton and the airline.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1ST1I3

They want the business and will have to pay top dollar. Lufthansa will get Condor and the rest of the airline will be sold.

Anyways the sale of the Nordic tour business and the airline will put a massive dent in the debt. All paving the way for the GIANT Fosun to come in and get the oldest and best know brand in the business.

I don't see an RNS on the sale until July and by then the share price should continue to rise...

GLA

.. and the next 10 days shows plenty of more wet weather across the UK and Northern Europe. A cold wet start to the summer period can only be a good thing to encourage punters to book a foreign holiday.