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@Rossannan My conservative viewpoint is and remains as such that the likely price is around 23-25p but that is only because I do not wish to be disappointed as i have been in the past by previous takeovers I have witnessed . However, there is mounting evidence that there are other interested parties and that alone could well drive a valuation that none of us can yet appreciate, such that as viewpoints such as yours and mine are indeed conservative in their make up.

Furthermore, there hasn't been an official bid yet and thus the actual process hasn't even truly started yet. If we then add a second or indeed third bid to that process, then it will only get even more complicated and extended. So even at circa 13 weeks the Indico-2 result is still well within reach without further updates on where the process is heading.

Finally, whatever the doubts about achievable price and or bids etc, it is for me well worth sitting on our hands and awaiting the next physical developments because at just short of 18p, we are still some way away from that supposed top end 25p marker.

Morning all, yes a modest discovery but confirmation that the oil stretches from Mariposa all the way down to Sol-1, which is a circa 13km fairway.

Slide 18 of the enclosed Feb presentation clearly demonstrates the potential activity generated by the initial Indico discovery. This Sol-1 discovery will only further add to that.

I like many others here am at a loss as to why the block is still only being drilled with 1 rig. The Calao-1 well result was announced on 26th March and it then took circa 7 weeks before the next well Sol-1 was spud (11th May). At the time AMER stated that this would be in the Indico structure, which in itself demonstrates a communication problem between the 2 parties. I accept that there is evidence that ONGC need time to upgrade surface facilities and acquire land etc but that shouldn't stop wells being drilled particularly when they are from existing pads. Even to a lesser trained eye it is clear that the block is on a go slow because after such a monster find at Indico the block really deserved more energy being applied to it. This is particularly true when I consider what GeoPark achieved on Llanos 34 in the first year post the initial 'large' finds.

It is of course of little use now and AMER will be judged purely on what it is offered for its assets going forward but it is a damn shame and it is with hope that we at least get to witness the results of Indico-2 materially affecting the bid process be it we likely have around 13-14 weeks to 'survive' until that point in time.

http://www.amerisurresources.com/images/rns-pdfs/Investor-Presentation-Feb-2019.pdf

@Margaret365 Yes this is another intriguing development. I will admit to a simple lack of knowledge here when i openly ask on what basis Stifel can be joint financial broker to AMER and make disclosures on behalf of M&P?

The RNS would imply that Stifel have bought shares and then sold them on to M&P? I can't think why else they would declare a purchase and a sale unless I am reading things wrongly.

@Lindon You are correct. The latest known update (BE Update 27th March 2019) states the following ;

"After promising pilot results at laboratory scale, Bushveld Energy procured two tons of vanadium for conversion into vanadium electrolyte. The scaled-up conversion process is currently being executed. If proven successful, samples from the produced electrolyte will be provided to battery companies for suitability assessment. There is significant expressed interest from VRFB manufacturers for vanadium electrolyte and appetite to add long duration energy storage to power systems and renewable energy projects in Africa overall. "

However, given that we are now some 4 months further down the line, logic says that these samples are out there by now and it is simply a case of the next update being released to confirm this. Hence my reasoning for talking about samples that have/are being sent out to VRFB manufcaturers.

Incidentally, given that there is currently no other example of such a large producer of vanadium producer who is willing and able to produce low cost high quality electrolyte, I would think that every VRFB manufacturer that is worth its salt has been on the phone to BMN inquiring into the possibility of receiving samples because right now the industry needs that to compete.

Given that a business connection already clearly exists with Avalon, I would be very surprised if they are not on the short list of VRFB manufacturers to which electrolyte samples have/are being sent.

With the publicized problems that Rongke Power have had with their Dalian project and their strategic connection with UET, I would expect that they are both very much on a that list too and are for me the biggest current prize on offer in terms of custom given their ambitions and what a guaranteed supply of cost effective electrolyte could do to boost their market penetration and expansion.

Good morning all,

An interesting development with Redt and Avalon today, which ties very much in with the rhetoric expressed in the recent Energy Storage 101 presentation.

Slide 36 raises the point that consolidation has already been taking place in the lithium sector and has enabled these merged businesses to expand and develop far more efficiently.

Navigant Research is quoted as saying that ;

"These developments have brought both greater levels of financial resources and maturity to the still developing energy storage industry.”

With regards to the existing vanadium sector mergers such as the one that brought UET, Rongke and Bolong New Materials together, the BMN team state this ;

"Such transactions are a prelude to greater future activity toward consolidation in vanadium energy storage. Bushveld’s integrated strategy anticipated the necessity of this trend earlier this decade"

There are currently simply too many smaller players struggling to establish themselves and in order to develop the industry that must change, and today's announcement is a stepping stone in that direction. So it isn't truly really about where or if BMN are involved, it is about the industry starting to change itself in order to set itself up to compete for what will inevitably be a very large opportunity in the coming years.

What is key is that BMN have recognised it early and have molded their integrated model around, a model that does allow for a strategic investment in the VRFB manufacturers that goes on to own the local VRFB plant in that BMN will feed into (see slide 59)

That VRFB company for me would be UET but the door is always open until it is closed is it not.

http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Energy-storage-101..pdf

Whilst I am very much against bids rumors etc being posted without concrete evidence, I am not so sure I buy the sudden change of heart from iis buying up stock and driving up the SP. Somebody suddenly wants stock and they don't appear all too bothered by the affect it is having on the SP.

It feels very much like somebody knows something the vast majority of us don't yet know.

According to the company website FIL held 6.63% of the company (equal to 80.62m shares) as of 29th March 2019.

The 22nd July declaration stated they now hold circa 58.6m shares.

That means they have sold around 22m over the last 4 months or so.

@JTD No worries. The more investors can pool their knowledge and observations given what we are no doubt up against in terms of said ambiguity and a general lack of transparency, the better.

You said "for me the most interesting information is the price 18p. If FIL bought them for M&P then the 17p bid is history, they will have to pay 18p upwards in cash under takeover rules"

I say exactly right.

There is an interesting story unfolding already in the declarations from those shareholders holding more than 1%. Hermes Investment Management are thus far adding at these levels, be it in small quantities thus far and currently hold just over 1%.

More importantly Legal and General have sold down just under 4m since 19th July, which brings their entire remaining 4.35% into play at these levels until we see evidence to the contrary.

FIL have declared since then so the first 4m must have gone to another home.

@JTD Firstly, to be clear I am very much aware this is early days and have said as much in my last post. I am merely following events as they unfold and attempting to plot the trajectory be it as I say, early days still. Where i have perhaps jumped the gun a little is in assuming that FIL have effectively sold their shares to M&P at the offer price. That I cannot say for certain. Perhaps they have indeed agreed in principle to the final offer price.

However, that isn't what is key here. The most important point is that M&P one way or the other have 4.82% and FIL are buying shares above the offer price (18p) be it in small quantities.

I expect more purchases today nut it will be about the size once more, which will demonstrate the intent. Logic says if you start buying shares at 18p and more are available at that price or less, then you continue. But I stress again that we are talking very small quantities at this stage and it is much more about the policy and the fact that FIL ( an investor keen to leave the party) is suddenly buying shares in the market for M&P.

I take your very interesting points about the market competition and tend to agree but as always nobody really knows anything concrete at this stage other than what the RNSs have declared to date. Like you though I do expect strong competition from the existing partners because they are in the game and that fact alone is reason enough for it.

The RNS is as follows ;

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AMER/fil-limited-form-83-amerisur-resources-94uzmwe59kxpeey.html

@JTD It isn't about the number of shares at this time it is about the intent and the price they are willing to pay.

It is still very early days but the fact is that a party holding 4.82% of AMER stock has declared for M&P and is willing to pay more than the known offer (17p) in the market.

I suspect FIL have taken the offer price but as others have already said here, they have been selling down and potentially affecting the SP, thus their deal with M&P may be more than meets the regulatory eye.

Morning JTD. The FIL Form 8.3 update from yesterday altered their position under section 1F compared to that stated in the 22nd July update.

As of yesterday they declared on behalf of Etablissements Maurel et Prom (M&P).

In addition, they declared that they had purchased 102,168 shares on the open market.

I take that to mean that FIL have sold their share to M&P and are actively buying stock on the market on their behalf.

After yesterday's announcement I will be keeping an close eye out for the next FIL update. Are they acquiring shares at this level for M&P and if so are they being more aggressive than yesterday's 100k of buys. Total control currently sits at around 4.8%.

Somebody queried whether they could get to 30% by buying at 18p. My position on this is no, so long as more iis do not give in as easily as FIL, which I don't believe they will because they aren't as keen as FIL to leave.

Lets see shall we.

I agree. They were bound to have some success with iis and FIL look to be closer to them than perhaps first thought. If they'd bought several million shares on the open market yesterday it might raise an eyebrow but 102k doesn't show a great deal of intent just yet.

Let's see what tomorrow's FIL update brings.

A mandatory offer must be made once they reach 30% but they are a long way from that if other iis fail to surrender their shares.

From what I have read, and I do welcome other thoughts on this, FIL have been wanting to exit for some time and so were highly likely the strongest candidate for selling out to an offer that is considerably above the levels they were prepared to exit at. There is no connection at this time with any other larger holders as each has its own strategy. I would suspect that just like many of us here, those iis that have rode out recent times of frustration etc here have likely done so because they see greater value, which I take as a good sign.

The really interesting part is that FIL appear to now be purchasing on behalf of M&P.

Very much worthwhile keeping an eye up for FIL 8.3 forms each day that's for sure.

Well I would be careful allowing oneself to be too overly dramatic at this early stage as they only managed to acquire 100k of shares on a day when over 26m were traded. So they aren't at this stage showing too much willingness to push purchased too hard on the open market. Plus their efforts will in itself push the price up because seller at this level must be fairly limited.

That said it is a significant development and the game is certainly afoot.

Yes I have doubled checked and that is very much how it looks given that the previous FIL announcement from yesterday stated the shares were still their own.