RE: How Good Is Serenity?25 Sep 2019 14:50
No riposte from me. I respect fully what Spike501 is saying. I am not here to win every argument or drive my rhetoric only.
I have previously shared evidence, be it limited, that any senior debt facility, would likely include other assets even if not forming part of the first development.
That aside, I do think the thinking around LIB phase 1 is too rigid right now. The company can change the plan if the plan is worth changing, and it leads to a better outcome for shareholders. It may cost a little time maybe even a little dilution but the one thing that a solid find at Serenity can do, is substantially de-risk the business by diversifying it into 2 field locations.
That has worth, which along with the physical barrels of oil, would drive substantial share appreciation, which would offset the debt to value ratio.
Furthermore, if Serenity demonstrates that it is the play that the company believes it is (WH Ireland talk about 69mmbbl recoverable), then the SP should push to levels that allow the junior debt holders to start exiting their position through warrants. De-risking the business even further.
At 93m shares in issue, it isn't going to take much to push this towards 75p - £1 mark, given we are talking far more resource, and much less risk.
Around that sort of mark I would expect warrant holders who are sitting at a 48.1p average, to begin to take advantage of the situation, if not before. That's why I really do like the debt funding. If successful on Serenity (and its not guaranteed), then said success with such a low total shares in issue base, should flush out the debt or at least lower it to far more manageable levels. Hence why I say this is about success with the drill bit and not the debt right now.
Production is of course important and right now there is nothing in any of the words from I3E to say that LIB phase 1 isn't going to happen but aI struggle to conclude that a solid positive outcome could be anything but a big positive for I3E, with or without a confirmed phase 1 development plan in place, at the time when it lands.
It is possible that LIB phase 1 ends up needing either Serenity or a revised A3, to get it over the line but I don't feel it is that far away anyway.