Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
And the bit I didn’t copy, ……….
The final 3 sentences is the shocker, and who we are dealing with
Finally, Maril indicated that it is a problem too complex to let it go without taking an active role on the part of the State: "the expropriation of YPF is the most complex thing that Argentina faces in history. It's 16 billion dollars for a mistake made not only by a government, but by an entire Congress that voted without reading what it was approving."
Taken from source :
https://noticiasyprotagonistas.com/actualidad/sebastian-maril-el-gobierno-argentino-deberia-prestarle-atencion-al-pedido-de-burford-capital/
Sebastián Maril: "The Argentine government should pay attention to Burford Capital's request"
April 22, 2024
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The international analyst referred to what was announced last Friday where Burford Capital asks for 51% of YPF's shares to be transferred to them in the face of the non-compliance of the National State.
Last Friday, Judge Loretta Preska lifted the secrecy of the summary in a presentation made by Burford Capital to transfer 51% of YPF's shares to her in the face of the non-compliance of the Argentine state.
This presentation had been made in April and is very important in the current political context, although it did not have the impact it should have. International analyst Sebastián Maril, spoke about it on 99.9 warning that "I am surprised that there was no noise about this except for the headlines on Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. It is necessary to pay attention to it because it is a snowball that continues to grow. Since Argentina doesn't pay attention to it, we don't sit down to negotiate; so they ask Judge Preska for what they are legally authorized to ask for. That is that 51% of YPF's shares are transferred to them because Argentina is not paying."
After this issue was made known, an explanation from the government on the subject should have been reached, but there was absolute silence: "next act, I expected some kind of comment from YPF or the government, but it did not happen. YPF is obliged to report this to the regulatory body of markets in both Argentina and the United States, so it will have to submit a statement in both exchanges."
Maril was also very clear about the possibilities of these actions being effectively transferred and pointed out that it is almost impossible: "the expropriation law prevents the Argentine government from transferring state-owned shares without two-thirds of Congress approving it. What Burford wants is to make noise and they sit down to negotiate. Judge Preska will order the transfer of the actions and if Argentina does not do it, the contempt that we have not heard since 2014 begins. Milei is targeting the United States for everything he intends for the country, but a country that does not comply with an American court, goes into contempt and is politically serious. They have to pay attention to it."
For the specialist, it is not a minor issue because similar situations will begin to arrive in the future: "this is the beginning, more requests for seizure, transfer of ownership or whatever you want to call it are coming. The problem that we Argentines have is that we do not act until we have the problem in our noses and when we have it, we blame the previous government, the climate or whatever. We avoid facing the serious problems
It’s all over the news in Argentina, now that Lady Preska has unsealed the private information.
Can anyone estimate the current value of the state owned portion of YPF shares. I’m thinking Burford have played a very clever move here.
I am interested to know the views of our viewers on this board.
What is our share price likely to be when we actually have a settlement agreement approved and payments coming through ?
This is of course what we are all waiting for !
I presume this may well be in another 12 months - 18 months time.
Pull back seems to be in progress. It was on the turn before the big sell off in US. Wait for Monday, the Iran situation is also making investors jittery.
Could see a significant drop in markets with this Middle East problem
FFC
You might want to get your wallet out.
Might go down to 1150 in the next couple of days,
What’s your view
BW, is the share purchase complete ?
Share price looking strong, don’t know what is moving it, could be rising with the FTSE, or was it the news on on SYSCO ?
I feel we’re heading back to the 1250’s, then it could be topsy turvy. Somethings going to break, can’t have the FTSE marching on and on.
TWT, thanks for your viewpoint.
The appeal decision should be out October time. Then time to sit down and negotiate. Hopefully, Milei
Has the upper hand by then and can persuade the Argentine parties to back him. A lot of uncertainty, I would like to see Burford seizing some assets to get the message out before then, or at least the threat to
proceed. Any more views are most welcome.
Presuming there will be a settlement agreement on the YPF case.
I would like to put the question of timing to those experienced investors. on this board.
What are your views on when we are likely to see a settlement or indeed news that it is being discussed by both parties.
If I remember correctly, Mithaq initially paid £5.25p per share, so nice profit for them
FFC,
I have no doubt that Burford have every eventuality covered to protect themselves.
Update…….
Not a CNN lot here and not sure what it means, but this is at arbitration stage.
https://globalarbitrationreview.com/article/funded-claimant-must-provide-security-claim-over-mining-ban
FFC,
Yes please,
If £26, that would be a life changer for me and my wife.
A nice thought, something to look forward to, keeps my mind in a good place
FFC,
Lovely to see someone who is positive, I share your thought and if you are correct that would bring the S to around £17.50p
I wonder, what timeline do you have in mind with regard to this sudden uplift in the SP. ?
Interesting article, but essentially good reason why we should not negotiate the sum of 16B . We should hold out. Argentina is not poor , it is rich in resources
https://amp.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/jan/11/lithium-war-over-argentina-white-gold-jujuy
I would say don’t trust the Argentine government one bit. Shaft them for every single penny. Corner they until they have no option but to pay the Full Amount , that is what we want and what we have waited for.
Penylots,
Frankly, I would be pleased to see the enforcement route in play, I rather think it won’t come to that, but if it does this would be well publicised and a bit of an embarrassment to Argentina.
GTX,
At some stage there will be some discussion with Burford behind the curtains. Who knows this may be going on already but doubt it.
My thinking is that one a deal has been agreed in principle this will then become public as it will need to be approved by Argentine congress.
GTX,
Is this a recent article