The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Alex Schlich, founder and managing director of Yellowstone Advisory, has just been released. Listen here.
Told ya they were going South. All over by October, Russia off all Ukraine soil and POLY completely out of RUSSIA.
JAB, I avoided giving the exact date and time as I knew somebody on here would come back on me, "ha ha nar nar you said you would sell 876 on 27th October 15:22 but you actually sold at 15:38, so you were wrong - admit it and leave this board forever with your wild inaccurate predictions",
is what some will, WILL, attack for me for.
Over by October, coincidently this maybe the same month POLY WEST pays out a dividend from Kazakhstan profits and cash from the sale of Russian assets and the next day I sell out for 876p. October is going to be a good month.
We were repeatedly told this during the cold war. The moment the door was opened a crack in Berlin, it was pushed wide open all over the USSR. You assume people will be loyal and patriotic to Russia of today? Just over 1 mill Russians used VPN at the start of this year, it is now 23 mill and rising. Why? So they can see what the rest of the world is saying. At the moment Russians just discovering what is happening in their name are in shock and denial. But as the reality sinks in and not every single news outlet globally can be accused of running some mass anti-Russian propaganda, there will be acceptance and retribution. As night follows day Russians will become aware and horrified - as of now it is highly unlikely due to information carried around the military, enough personnel will be loyal enough to mobilise, position, arm, target and fire some rusty old tactical warhead unsure of its stability or the trigger mechanism all in name of those who sent half their colleagues to be slaughtered in Ukraine. Think it through.
news in the west is packaged with beginning, middle and end. The editors are managing a middle story at the moment. There is no hint of an end story, so they follow mostly other 'current' stories at the moment.
Russia is in big trouble and will become increasingly unpredictable as it tries to cover up its internal collapse. It fooled amnesty international for example, but truth is out already over that as they steered researchers to filtration camp detainees who would be freed if they claimed Ukraine was doing this or that.
I will not even be surprised to hear Russian propaganda false flagging a nuclear strike, or trying to set it up. That will be too much for lower level commanders. Rebellion is rife on battlefields at the moment.
All over by October. POLY to announce dump of all Russia tixic Assets within weeks, irrespective of war end date. Rehabilitation for Russia will take many years, probably over a decade.
"We are constantly given bogey men which are injected into the media to what they call 'NUDGE' public opinion."
Jaw on floor!
So Putin is a propaganda 'bogey man' invented by the west to nudge theory the west, where? I don't think Putin needs any level of bias for people to make a full throttle evaluation. In hypnosis, only about 20% o a population at any one time is susceptible enough to be manipulated. That falls to 5% for persistently and repeatedly susceptible to suggestion. Just because mass media is massively biased one way or another, does not follow the population actually agrees or follows. Thatcher, Brexit, Trump... none of that should have made it to 20% support based on mass media bias and coverage.
Lewis has been caught out before pushing an agenda under the guise of a consumer rights champion when he is actually a leftie campaigner with an 'act'.
You also engage in classic misdirection referring to the standard VARIABLE rate. I haven't mentioned SVR at all. I am talking about the 'default' standard rate,
"The energy price cap is backstop protection from the government, calculated by Ofgem.
It applies if you’re on a default energy tariff, whether you pay by direct debit, standard credit or a prepayment meter.
If your supplier has stopped trading and you are switched to a new supplier you are likely on a price capped tariff.
It won’t apply if you:
are on a fixed-term energy tariff
have chosen a standard variable green energy tariff Ofgem has exempted from the cap.
Contact your supplier to check if you are on their default tariff."
As for my own circumstances, I told you I was bumped on to Eon and the rate is well below the the default and when the term expires in October I will do my research, might even go for a variable in anticipation of rates falling and avoid looking into a fixed term.
Whichever way it goes, Russia does not hold some ace trump or leverage over the west with energy supplies. Like all the other calculations over the invasion of Ukraine, he has got it spectacularly wrong. Europe doesn't do 'made a fool' off very well, embarrassed over constitution referendums so they stopped them, embarrassed over Brexit so retaliated with sanctions in the guise of a trade deal, embarrassed over covid so tries to claim Astra jab unsafe causing a major problem fanning the ant-vax campaigns, and now Russia exposes a catastrophic error in energy supply policy. You watch, the EU will react severally against Russia and we will all be very grateful POLY pulled out as son as it did (I hope). And with luck zero carbon will get buried in the process.
Well I simply do not believe that being on the standard now your supplier alone, let alone the other suppliers, has no cheaper tariff. That simply does not ring true. Which supplier is this, the one with only one tariff charge?
Ghuxy, I said people do not need to pay the maximum standard tariff. In act, I expect there will be few, maybe none, that actually raise the standard tariff to the allowable limit. Nobody i denying prices are increasing, what is contested to the hysterical claims all prices are going to be raised to the theoretical maximum and there are no options. The biggest issue with prices isn't even being mentioned and that is the fixed daily charge, but I expect the new PM to have a go at that in September as zero carbon is rolled back. Part of this panic and hysteria is deliberate to allow zero carbon to be rolled back, but not enough. We saw early in the PM campaign how all candidates were immediately coerced into sounding on side. I expect big changes there, big chunks of bills removed as green levies are suspended, big cap on daily charges and nobody ever actually charged the kind of rats being predicted, not implemented but predicted. And there has been a bidding war there with various campaign groups trying to add on more potential increases to up the headline figure for the BBC to ram on every broadcast.
If you are on standard tariff, you can switch to a lower fixed price tariff or even lower variable tariff and the variable tariff will never reach the rather silly predictions of today. But overall you will be paying more than if covid, Ukraine and zero carbon hadn't happened since e don't have shale gas in the UK.
"germany is in no way prepared if russia pulls plug. it is the end of them as an industralised manufacturing country"
I believe the worst case scenario is in all gas stops now, Germany might have a 5%ih contraction in GDP. Hardley 'the end'. Germany, along with other parts of Europe has committed to dump ALL Russian energy imports, ALL. The error of the reliance policy is well understood now, major reorientation in power generation is underway, resourcing of LNG is taking place for the long term, coal will be increased for short term. Zero carbon is being sidelined and with luck it will be kept there. The ending of industrialised economies was going to happen due to the madness of zero carbon. The biggest loser will be Russia, it will only be receiving income from sales to Hungry this time next year. Russia will have to tax the hell out of other cash producers like gold to try and make up the shortfall. The existing global price system will be dismantled when Europe turns of the supply itself, probably by next spring.
"I checked, they have quoted double my current fixed rate, which was double my previous fixed rate, no deals anywhere."
So if you started at 100, then goes to 200 and you are claiming the lowest quote was 400? That sounds like you had a vanishingly small tariff to begin with, I called them unsustainably low and they were. Anybody on the standard tariff can get a lower tariff even with the current supplier. Some people can't be bothered to switch, or are ideologically opposed to switching and instead martyr themselves on the fuel bill alter. This time round though, I wonder how many objectionists will keep it up.
I'll be using my £400 handout in autumn to pay for my regular visit to the German Christmas fairs, bratwurst anyone?
"russians will be putting huge pressure on germany - with fuel..which is really going to have to make them choose.."
Europe as already chosen which is why coal stations are being re-commissioned and stock piles are being rebooted for winter. Heating gas will not be used for electricity production so here will be enough to go around. The sticking point is trying to keep the zero carbon policy at the same time, but the realities of that policy were already starting to raise alarms.
As for the other theories about annexing lands and declaring them Russian, that is irrelevant unless the there is international recognition of any declaration. Russia duped a few countries countries at the start and pays for the silence on going with giveaway fuel deals, but when it comes to a formal declaration that Donbas is Russian, that will require all the other countries to get their fingers dirty involving themselves directly. Russia will find at that point the passive attitude to its actions will disappear and there was never 'support' for their action, just ambivalence. Due to that, it is highly unlikely Russia will try to annex land as purley Russian and instead set up controlled enclaves of what the UN will continue to recognise as Ukraine.
It won't change the basc act that Russia is, and will continue to be, toxic, for a very long time to become and POLY wil be wise to split asap.
The scares on energy bills are for maximum standard tariff. If people stay on those tariffs rather than the signing up to a far lower tariff, more fool them. The in unsustainable cheap tariffs are gone leaving the main 5 or is it 6 to switch too. Easy to find rates well below standard tariff. Got bumped into Eon last Nov and same bills as last year. Lot of media hysterical scare stories like killer heat waves and outback mega wild fires. At some point this crazy media broadcast trolling is going ti have to be formally challenged.
Wow, Wizz air us going to bail out Russia. I have a large wadge of Wizz air stock. As long as Wizz do not fuel up, take on Potable water, use Russian pilots or have any servicing done in Russia, it might even be safe to board the aircraft. What will be interesting ia how many Russians will be on the inbound flights (count on one hand) and how many will be on the outbound (remembering the scenes at Kabul airport recently).