Member Info for big-blue

More brain boilers for some of you.....

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/covid-briefing-omicron-cases-iceland-22647104
""It is now only the unvaccinated at serious risk of harm and hospitalisation. I think we need to design policies that are fit for business and society, and those who are vaccinated as opposed to the unvaccinated tail wagging the triple jabbed dog."

I think it is safe to say, as the vaccination drive was a community event for the benefit of everybody, including the vulnerable, not taking part and standing aside and then getting upset about people noticing your group is only going to antagonise those who already feel you're not pulling your weight. At times like this, discretion is the order of the day. You may not be obliged to have the jabs, but complaining you are looked on or treated differently to those who did choose will fall on deaf ears. You made your choice and society will open up and operate around those who participated. You can not expect to be treated as if you are vaccinated, when you are not. Your choice.

If pre-flight tests are to be scrapped,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59877796
and PCR are scraped, that must mean if day 2 test remains it will have to be lateral flow. But what use will the lateral flow be? Unless you have some sort of symptoms knowing if it is flu, covid or a cold is meaningless. And if travellers should be checked every journey, shouldn't everybody taking any sort of journey also be checked. If the idea is to capture people moving from one place to another and isolate them if they have covid, than that logically implies everybody taking any journey if they will be at the destination for more than 2 days. That's the logic. There are loads of journeys within the UK that are a lot further in distance then to places in the EU and Ireland.

https://www.corkbeo.ie/news/government-scraps-key-travel-rule-22651659

Fancy 'expressing' yourself?

https://www.euronews.com/2022/01/04/police-officer-bitten-amid-violence-over-covid-restrictions-in-germany?utm_source=vuukle&utm_medium=talk_of_town

https://www.newsweek.com/pandemic-protests-germany-grow-violent-police-try-enforce-covid-restrictions-1665421?piano_t=1

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/thousands-defy-dutch-government-ban-on-covid-protests-41204082.html

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/dead-emotional-support-dog-killed-southwest-flight-b1987079.html

errr.... and what about the many people allergic to cats and dogs? I can get an asthma attack from certain cats on rare occasions. If I need a comfort Tarantula spider, would that be acceptable? Or maybe a pet python, snakes on a plane for real? The great unwashed are just so full of it.

Everyday, in every way, it's getting better and better....

This is the classic mantra, repeat it all the time and maybe a crazy fan won't shoot you dead in NY after asking for your autograph! And the moral of this story is....

Looking at the sector, seems the partial lifting of testing is priced in with little speculation of a full lifting of testing. As it was being leaked that only lateral flow tests are to be used for identifying self-isolation in the workforce and dumping PCR tests, it would also be easy to transfer this over to travel pre-flight for inward bound. However, I suspect the people holding the PCR stockpile will have lobbied to wait for the PCR kits to have been used up, so it is possible the change will be delayed to middle of the month.

Possibility of a full lifting of tests is low imo. Therefore, after profit taking, the new 'floor' for the sector will have been reached. Unwinding from the norm of covid restrictions is going to be difficult and drawn out as people now have to adjust to a new norm and overcome another change.

https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/business/200389/thousands-of-ghost-flights-scheduled-to-keep-much-desired-slots

If all the testing is lifted, it might be a good time to hit skyscanner and book a load of bargain day trips - to countries that don't need any tests to visit. It is possible we might be back to only needing your vacc 2D code and passport soon.

I got my days mixed up yesterday thinking it was all ready Wednesday, bank holidays and a desire to get on with it I think. So rather than being ready to respond to an overnight travel rules announcement, I have to keep my eyes on the news feeds today. The lobby is strong for removing all restrictions but the chair of the Manchester Group was interviewed this morning in a very aggressive manner for some reason. Sounds like the BBC is not on board!

I would expect the travel review to be put before cabinet first before being released, although there will be enough leaks for the market to know in advance. Maybe the anger in the interview was in retaliation as the BBC will have sight of leaks. Who knows.

Anything less than a full withdrawal of all travel testing will be indefensible. Coupled with the failure to pull back restrictions yesterday, failure to reduce quarantine time in the workforce, and any opposition around the cabinet table to removing travel testing, the day could be the actual end of Boris. There are noises of some fiddling of workforce testing by removing the PCR. I note the freedom lobby has not been touring the studios or doing many media interviews. That is generally an indication of high level plotting going on ready to ambush.

I would love to be a fly on the wall of today's cabinet meeting.

https://www.flightglobal.com/flight-international/what-awaits-the-aviation-sector-in-2022/146889.article

A good read

https://healthpolicy-watch.news/twindemic-first-cases-of-covid-flu-coinfection-reported-europe-sees-above-normal-cases-of-seasonal-flu-cases/

This is the sort of crap which is going to be twisted and used and abused by lobby groups to keep the pandemic going. Fear and fear of the unknown will be deployed in ever more draconian measures. As we have seen, too many leaders are very easily led to be seen to be doing the right thing even if it is entirely wrong.

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/germany-ends-travel-ban-for-british-travellers-today/

Impressed with the sp holding through the afternoon, IAG is tickling 160 again. Market is expecting something and bought in for it. SO if Boris announces travel changes in press conference tonight then the there will be a very significant jump tomorrow WHICH WILL BE A PROFIT TAKE WINDOW. If the news is very good and if there is a big spike it might turn into a profit take frenzy within a few mins so tomorrow morning I'll have my fingers on the button for manual trades from first thing. The market has been definitely set up for something.

I am increasingly confident this surge is due to pending news of significant changes to the travel test regime.

As I speak, 160 for OAG is breached. I said it would do it before the end of January, although 1st trading day and hitting the target was a bit unexpected. There you go.

Testing is recognised as meaningless in an increasing number of countries. It is only of use for academic studies using the travelling public as one mass lab rat experiment at immense cost to the industry and individual liberty. This is the next big totem to fall and I believe it was to be reviewed today. I will put a fiver on all testing to be removed, big backlash form those very few academics that would use the data - and a major sp rise the day after the announcement, in the order of 33% av for the sector stocks!!!!
Yep, that is a prediction and would very safely get my IAG at 160 before end of January, which is not far off at the moment, and I suggest that is on some speculation the testing is about to be changed rather than dropped altogether.

In my estimation the lockdown lobby is losing out by the hour and the UK government is growing increasingly bolder to unlock further.
Woof Woof!!

And do remember, that which may not be named is constantly stalking every stock in this sector, some are more vulnerable than others!

Do be aware though, big leaps up also triggers hard profit takers. Volatility will most likely be the order of the month as the various lobby groups try to push their agenda. Are these declarations of 'major incident' or 'emergency' by more and more health authorities actual and real or are they inspired by lockdown lobby contacts pressing hospital managers to go down that route for the headlines? What kind of impression does that create in the headlines? Throw in school panic and lots of unknowns and you get a media storm going and a 'consensus' suggested by a narrative goes around in circles and you end up with mass lockdowns. Competing against that is the other side pointing out there are not the deaths or hospital occupancy as a major incident, peaks are passing, numbers declining and collateral damage of lockdown is often much worse than not locking down.

So it is going to be a bumpy ride switching to the new normal, end of pandemic, end of lockdown, end of narrative. A lot of movers and shakers are going to struggle to let it go!

There she pops +8.8% IAG, 8% Easy J

bots seem to be putting sector up around 4.75%, no price yet for IAG or Easy. Could be a big one.

Huge delay in a price coming up, must be a mountain of orders to clear.