Member Info for big-blue

Danphonic, the idea that the pandemic and causes and items that effect it have no bearing on discussions on airline prices is a bit of nonsense. Keep well and truly clued up on the issue informs whether to expect an RI or not, for example. For wobbles, the question is waiting until sp reaches 230p. OK, so I ignore everything else, by 20 or 30 million quids worth of IAG and wait. But for how long? Would I not be wise to keep an eye on how well there is a return to normal and how attitudes around the world are affecting that time line? There is one fundamental difference to the airline sector today compared to 2019. A worldwide pandemic that some feel is over and some feel is still well underway. Every aspect of every airline is directly affected by it and therefore when taking just a mere 90 degree perspective on what information to consider when considering whether to buy or sell issues related to the pandemic must be the highest on the list. Normally it is the price of oil, but that barely gets a mention at the moment.

https://simpleflying.com/asiana-removes-a380-from-schedule/

Some reality checks for the rainbow chasers when gauging just how much income IS being generated against the debt mountain.

The most fundamental important bit, if you are holding. If an RI drops, ensure you have the funds to buy up your allocation to ensure you maintain a breakeven. AN honest debate would be how big an RI could be, what kind of allocation could be expected and hence be prepared. Rather like begin vaccinated to prep your immune system, get informed to prep your finances!

Did you see how I ran the vacc debate straight into the heart of the IAG funding debate? Clever boy eh?

https://www.airport-technology.com/news/norse-atlantic-eu-us/

Like it or not, Norwegian MKII is competition and frankly IAG and BA could do without it.

"just like it's not your problem if I should die

Hope not fordm. We would never get over it. It would be the end of everything if you should go before us. It'll be out with the shrouds, orange juice laced with eternal sleeping powder and off to bed for the long sleep.

"'Mostly ill in hospital are jabbed because 99% of vulnerable people are double jabbed.'
That would be the case if the jabs make absolutely no difference..."
What about those jabbed that didn't need to go to hospital because they had an immune system able to fight of the virus when they inevitably contracted it? No vaccine ever professes to guarantee complete protection, but your chances fighting of a virus having been vaccinated is on any measure higher than not having any vaccination and just hoping you get lucky with whatever state of your existing immune system.

"Most in hospital aren't in primarily for covid anyways."
Counting methods need a full open scrutiny.

"It's not like saying seatbelts etc, if you die in a car accident the seat belt had no effect to the outcome did it ?"

Again, what about all those in an accident that didn't die because they were wearing a seatbelt? As with vaccinations, a seatbelt is no guarantee of surviving you, but your chances are greatly increased of surviving if you are wearing one.

"You don't get hated/discriminated against as a seatbelt wearer or not, or have to prove you wear a selt belt to access places/events/services."

You can be prosecuted and eventually thrown in a prison as a persistent offender. There is a disquite against those who increase risk to themselves and ended up filling hospitals with completely unnecessary injuries. And there is an equivalent embargo on access to places if you are a smoker. Furthermore, ID is required across the board to buy knives, glue, alcohol, tobacco and adult material. Under your logic, all those restrictions should be removed so as not be discriminatory. Free love? You would like free sexual contact for any age between any age so as not have "hated/discriminated" behaviour directed at children???

"But you prove my point that the jab free being responsible for the busy hospitals is BS."

The overwhelming number of cases of direct covid problems occurs in people unvaccinated - worldwide.

"Meanwhile, only 17300 deaths OF covid, the rest had other ailments contributing to or causing their death. Hardly a pandemic and not a reason to risk kids lives with a deadlier jab."

The method of counting cases is indeed to be questioned, but by definition it has been a 'pandemic' and the vaccine risk to life for any age group is substantially lower contracting covid. And following on from the exposure of expert opinion being wide of the mark with modelling, add in the EU politics against the Astra jab and the still current lack of explaining how the heart swelling can be caused by a mRNA vaccine and then multiply by the fact that Pfizer report the same thing, as have all the others but with vanishingly small numbers and the alternative theory that the reaction was in fact a hypersensitive reaction to the metal of the syringe or a compound in the syringe... the case still isn't proven it was anything to do with the vaccine!!!!

"Jab free are accelerating herd immunity, most ill and in hospital are jabbed. Don't believe the hype."

Astonishing. As so many non vaccinated have discovered, as they are told by the consultant in the hospital there is nothing more that can be done and that they are going to be put in an induced coma which they may not wake up from so they should ensure their will is registered and say goodbye to loved ones, covid is real - it kills - and your best chance against it is with a vaccine that billions have taken with no ill effect whatsoever.

"So why were the Sage "scenarios" so wide of the mark?

An annex in the Sage documents points to some of these revisions. It suggests that the LSHTM changed their models to show that Omicron was between three to eight times more transmissible than Delta – but did not appear to make any adjustments in the models for severity. They assumed the virus was as deadly as Delta but by then real-world South African data was clearly showing the variant had far less severe outcomes."

The gongs were definitely handed out too early!

The omicron mis-modelling is easy to explain. Pig headed bloody minded bigotry towards South Africans, especially the 'white' doctors. Most in the modelling community are university academics and through that left leaning politically. The previous anti-apartheid political position is still very prevalent especially with the advent of woke and cancel culture. So the clear data from SA was dismissed as it was just unconscionable for the modellers to be seen to be engaging with the great white enemy in the southern hemisphere or accepting any of their information. This one should come back on the universities in a big fashion. There is also the point that the wild estimates of spread rate could never happen in the physical world.

The so called experts will have a lot to answer to if the enquiries are to be done properly.

"if this wave starts to turn around"

Every man and his dog, every woman and her cat, can see the bloody graph, there has been a significant U turn in cases and hospitalisations and deaths are no where near the previous variants. So where does this 'IF' come from?

There are many in the 'expert' community that want to extend this pandemic and are set to eek out every last hour/penny.

I think Jtan that the reaction to the next variant, which will come along [might even be here but swept under the carpet for the moment!!!], will be an intense focus on what the experts are trying to say. I think omicron proved without any shadow of a doubt that the expert analysis was not worth much and had probably not been worth much throughout. So the bar to introduce any kind of restrictions will be very much higher and pragmatism in interpreting information at the hospital entrance as opposed to some academic theoretical model which would never happen in the physical real world will be much more widespread. It is possible local restrictions like we would see with the likes of Ebola or the previous SARS might happen, but the one single main spreading component must be addressed, the falsehood believing masks stop spreading a virus must be taken head. If mask wearing is used to control future outbreaks of a virus that can live for several hours outside of the body, we will be going around in infection cycles forever. It really is THAT simple.

I noted yesterday, visited a Morrison's and an Asda. As before during mandatory mask wearing last year, most of the staff were not wearing the masks.

Have you also noticed the massive disinfecting cleaning regimes have largely disappeared and very few people now bother using hand sanitisers which are still free all over the place?

People have given up trying to stop the spread as most people are intelligent enough to realise it is a futile endeavor like trying to stop the cold. We have the vaccine, we know we are risk from a wide variety of bugs, we understand the reality of the situation and the reality of omicron. Time to call it and pull all restrictions and downgrade to an epidemic.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/2022/01/17/watch-emirates-a380-magically-disappears-into-fog-after-take-off/

Nice vide, what is interesting to see is the vapour due to the pressure drop at the entrance to the engines. Normally atmospheric conditions only show the vacuum over the wing and trailing wing vortex. With this video you actually get the sense of the engines sucking the aircraft forward.

shhhh bobbins, or everybody will want one!

I recommend KFC.

Please write more carefully. You mena, at your dentist practice? You tracked through genome sequencing the source of infection in your practice? You sound like one of the experts with your robust analysis and tracking data. Given the infection rate amongst school children, the probability that you can claim that was an infection source is pretty weak. And anyway, covid comes into your practice, did your masks stop it spreading in your surgery? No. But the likelihood is one carrier came in, mask saturated with the virus, touching various communal surfaces and inevitably leaving highly contaminated material which is then picked up and quickly spread around the others in your practice, and other visitors.

either
"no one from our team has got covid"
or
"Most of us got it as soon as the kids stopped wearing them at school last summer"

Meanwhile the hysterical empathetic brigade try to use the age old emotional kosh to wipe out competing arguments. If we didn't have a vaccine, 'getting a grip' would be the single option as society would starve under perpetual lockdown.

I will repeat something I have mentioned a few times with masks. You will hear many qualifications for masks all talking about stopping or reducing the aerosol. A barrier will of course reduce the aerosol, although in the real world not by much. What you never hear discussed by the gods of TV is the spreading of the virus from touching masks saturated with the virus, then touching a surface and then somebody contaminating themselves touching that surface. Most disease isn't transmitted like this because the virus can't survive for more than a few seconds outside the body. UV is a big killer for example. Covid19 can last for a couple of hours outside the body.

The last time you heard about this method of transmission was right at the start of the pandemic when the TV gods wanted to promote masks. But then it grew to be an anti-Trump symbol in the states and all the rational discussion ended. When masks became mandatory thanks to the WHO retaliating against Trump for Trump criticising the WHO's pandemic response lockdowns and runaway contamination of populations was guaranteed. Every single wave of infection in every single place on earth has turned exponential only when masks have been imposed. Between forced full mask wearing, the rate of spread has never risen anywhere as fast. All the proof that masks have been the principle superspreaders is out there. Politically so many pinned their colours to that mask that backpedaling and accepting masks were an error, and indeed most governments have been aware of this for at least a year but trapped by the mask lobby. It is one reason why masks must be removed from aeroplanes. The toilets will become the perfect transmission route to infect the whole flight, something demonstrated on a flight recently - can't remember details but it was captured due to full plane testing somewhere recently.

Masks spread the virus, they are the super spreaders. They only became a thing as they became a political badge, anti-Trump, to begin with. It is insane they have been used as they have. Nothing more than a comfort blanket, a tool for forcing social compliance on people who otherwise have individuality. Insecure people are very afraid of individuality and the pandemic has allowed a great deal of forced compliance. It is breaking down, has been for a while. In the years to come, as the enquiries report, masks wearing will turn out to be the biggest error of all.

I am satisfied to know, I get under your skin, I am in your head, you are so troubled by me you have to spend your time hunting for something YOU consider to be scoring a point against me, not anybody else, but ME.

Sweet dreams about me tonight!

You are forgetting that results are just 6 weeks away and the effect of omicron has been big. I am not expecting much above 160 for the end of Jan. I think the city has priced in poor results, shorters have taken positions for very poor results and dilution. I think the last couple of months weigh much heavier on the sp than emerging out of a lockdown to where things were in October last.

Let's just hope it was relocating aircraft and crew . Feeds in to an expectation as to what Q4 omicron results might look like. Testing, even just one, is enough to put off casual flying and of course the problem of sudden rule changes. All testing needs to end and the term endemic replacing pandemic. Experts who are trying to extended the pandemic for their own ends need to be stopped.

it's all a matter now how quickly governments get themselves out of the hole. Media has a big part to play here. If they are cynical, it will take months, if they are supportive it'll take weeks. If they turn on the experts, it will take just days!

Wasn't trying to be patronizing, don't need to try apparently :)