Member Info for big-blue

Not correct woody. The available debt was the same. Without omicron only a small amount, maybe none of the facility would have been drawn down. But the Winter market was lost and about 6 weeks of recovery time was lost thanks to omicron. It is reasonable therefore to think that a large chunk of the loan facilities have been drawn down and the debt pile will have increased significantly. From there, does the business try and pay down the debt with revenue for some years whilst not being able to deliver dividends as per the terms of the loan. Or does it raise money from the market in some way to pay down the debt and allow dividend payments. The raising of money may or may not dilute the share pool. It could be a RI, could be a iis issue only [very bad for retail investors as no offset of new shares for the dilution], could it be a bond issue, or could BA be sold off leaving IAG with no related debt obligation but wrangling the deal to keep a large stake?
I personally don't think BA would allow IAG to leave out retail investors. But business is business and there is a widely anticipated restructuring across the industry. BA itself has created brands which it sells of as part of it's business strategy. The results date is well placed for BA as the industry recovers post pandemic, it will be interesting to see what the financial strategy will be. I'm watching like a hawk and ready to jump in if the business plan suites me. I don't want to see any dilution of any sort.

https://www.businesstravelnewseurope.com/Air-Travel/Unfair-air-fare-add-ons

Interesting read - especially the fuel surcharge bit;
"The current price of Brent Crude oil is $87. “A link between surcharges and fuel consumption doesn’t exist,” says the travel manager. “A typical actual cost of aviation fuel on a Boeing 787 is $100 per passenger from New York to London, assuming there are 250 seats on the plane and 80 per cent of them are filled.” YQ/YR surcharges are often several times that amount."

https://www.dfnionline.com/latest-news/heathrow-predicts-50-2019-traffic-levels-2022-08-02-2022/

Not a great forecast.

Many have looked for correlations in duel listings to get ahead of the market. Many have failed. You need hyper fast trading links to get one step ahead of the exchange trading reports and price updates. You will not find a reliable correlation in price lag or look ahead to make secure trades. If it were possible, we would all be doing it.

https://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/global-airlines-expect-strong-pick-up-in-new-job-creation-says-iata-1.85525675

This is one giveaway that the airlines are ramping up their schedules back to pre pandemic. It has been a slow restart since the US opened up again, then omicron shut things down all over the place whilst more testing deterred travel.

https://www.gulftoday.ae/news/2022/02/08/putin-signals-compromise-over-ukraine-after-macron-talks

Maybe get another bounce upward out of this.

Putin I don't think had any intention of actually invading. But that won't stop Marcon running around claiming to have stopped Putin alone. Of course, Nato shipping over plane load and plane load of weapons and beginning deployment of troops ready for action in neighbouring states had nothing to do with it. Nor did the instructions from Xing in China to NOT go over the boarder have anything to do with it. Nor the threat of very severe economic sanctions aimed at crippling Russia and the elites. No, it will all have been down to Marcon, oh and the 5000 German helmets! lol.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-flies-moscow-high-risk-diplomatic-mission-2022-02-06/

Marcon was never seen again.........

https://airinsight.com/frontier-spirit-merger-makes-it-5-in-the-us/

'ere we go! Is this the starter gun for the big consolidation? Will the merged airlines make a pitch for Easy Jet?

https://www.ttgmedia.com/news/british-airways-to-resume-flights-as-morocco-reopens-32671

Excellent. Fancy popping down to Marrakech again and doing the balloon trip they did on Travel Man. Looks great.

Is there a poo flinger out of their cage? Can't see as have a large filter list these days.

NorthScotsundezenaJamisonBenjohnson90mxiartJohnbri4OssinghMuma

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50858

Oil price is predicted to fall. I think this analysis is a bit conservative and production will be increased to get Brent stable under 70$ quite quickly. With Ukraine out of the way Russia will be rejoining the production rota. Also there are noises within government to get UK production more active - my £500 punt on onshore UKOG will get a good pick up if that is carried through to solid policy support. I think the Russian scare has resulted in some policy rethinks. Whether there is 10 or 20 years supply of gas/oil, get the planning issues dealt with under new laws, reduce onshore field tax and MAKE ME RICH. I've go half a million UKOG shares, I want to be selling at £10 a share before Christmas, lol. You gotta dream.

Big question, will market makers decouple IAG from the sector to trade freely with results, or will the whole sector be dragged around with movement based on results? Seen it before.

I think I can honestly say I never saw one single episode of 'Neighbours'. I therefore have nothing to say o the matter.

Blimey!

I'm not used to saying that :)

amortisation. One of the oddities of business. Why have debt if you can pay it off and keep cash in the account. Inflation. Since the credit crunch many business switched to cash in the account due to low inflation. As inflation rises, so cash will be switch to credit. It is a weird balancing act but is the best way to avoid devaluation of your companies income. However, you have a balance of cash to credit. The likes of IAG have way too much credit.

The issue isn't off topic for this or most chat boards. The cost of net zero will/is one of a number of factors depleting disposable income. Stocks relying on consumer spending therefore need to keep an eye on the issue. If the public turns against new zero and the schemes are watered down or given more realistic time frames, seeing that ahead of time could result in a long term investment opportunity. At the moment I wouldn't hold IAG for a pension fund because of the way the climate change policies all work against free travel. But keeping an eye on the issue, might change my mind if I think a major policy change is underway and get in before the iis factor it.

I agree Ed1 that fossil fuels were always going to run out and therefore switching to an alternative fuel was always going to be needed. But two things are being done that shouldn't. Forcing a change in such a short range of time, i.e this 2030 business. It took decades to develop the ICE to reach the performance and reliability needed today [not just cars but a multitude of generators for example to pump domestic water]. Battery power is just way too far off to replace most power generators and prime movers. And the copper needed for motors???? The second issue is believing renewable energy is going to substitute fossil fuel. It never was. Solar panels are grossly inefficient and none of them anywhere on the plant will recover their own footprint outside the tropics. Wind power is intermittent and the engineering a long way of being stable. And again most turbines will never cover their own carbon footprints, especially when adding maintenance.

The solution to the problem of switching from fossil fuel has been forced down the wrong technological path and against impossible time scales. The solution is nuclear, especially small scale, room temperature superconductivity and a burning fuel derived from unlocking Hydrogen from water but storing it in a nitrate chain molecule so carbon is not part of the emission.

All of this of course assumes that global warming has anything to do with the existence of man or burning fossil fuels. Historical ice cores show temperature changes precede carbon concentration. That makes sense because temperature change promotes or hinders plant rate of growth which in turn increases or decreases photosynthesis which in turn affects the co2 level.

Why important for investing in airlines. What long term future for your investments. Battery powered 777s? Really? Hydrogen fuel? Kerrr-boom at 34,000 feet!!! Difficult fuel to store and use safely [see rocket launches that go wrong for proof - and how long sis it take them to get it right, most of the time].

As the Fed and boe interest rate policy is more certain thanks to boe 0.5% rise indicating where the fed is going, the markets are reorienting for a mid term year or two of relatively high interest rates. The next big item on the agenda now having the dominant hand in market sentiment is oil. Whatever the green lobby thinks, oil is still a principal market maker. At the moment I don't think the market is fully convinced whether oil will stay in the levels it is or will come back down. I suspect pressures on economies will force market intervention [did it ever go away] and oil will be forced back down to the low $70 Brent region. There is also increasing vocalisation against net zero. If you question climate change, you are classed a denier and 'cancelled'. Cancel culture is nothing new to the sciences!!!! But raising concern over the cost of 'net zero' is, for the moment, getting some traction in news agendas. It is important because 'ner zero' is going to become by far the biggest issue as the real costs associated become apparent, as they already are. The Ukraine situation I think has been factored in as a very low risk issue.

The big fundamental is, people even on here scratch their heads not understanding why the sp is not shooting past 200, 300, 400 given all the apparent perfect news for travel and IAG. The reason is the markets are dominated by macro variables since the pandemic started and will continue to be dominated by macro variables. If oil was around the stable $70 level and net zero was on a 2050+ time scale rather than the crazy 2030 time scale, then news on borders opening up have a much greater leverage on the sp. It is possible for some events to have a greater impact for a while moving the sector to a new level [up or down]. IAG results will affect the sector and the overdue consolidation of airlines will also have an impact. But I think macro variables are going to continue to govern the general sp movements for the whole market for at least most of the next two years.

http://www.tradearabia.com/news/TTN_392685.html

And more competition. Get the feeling of being ganged upon?

https://www.traveloffpath.com/new-european-airline-launches-direct-flights-to-u-s-and-canada/

More competition. IAG should be concerned of this. The Germans are very adept at twisting EU money and regulations to suite their industry and impinge on others. BA may have more of a competitor here than first glance.

When I say 'austerity', I'm talking about the real thing. Not the picking at the edges we saw over the last decade with a couple of libraries closed here and there. I'm talking about backpedaling to 1950s type expectations. And the when looking at the numbers currently being spent on climate change and expected over the next decade, that has got to be looked at as more and more of an expensive luxury that is not needed. Every single claim on the climate change agenda has an alternative counter argument these days from people with credentials on a par. It is just that that side of things is held up as a anti- culture to be swept under the carpet. It is more and more difficult to do so as the costs of implementing the net-zero change move ever closer to individual back pockets. So far the huge sums of money have seems far off being dealt with at government level. But explain to somebody about the fixed climate change levy on their fuel bill and then there bill will go up even more very soon and people quickly get the perspective. As I've said an a number of occasions, one more election to go before society collapses. Money is going to be tight again for the next twenty years, paying for turbines that will never cover their own carbon footprint let alone power existing domestic needs let alone the demand for the evs will inevitably become a major talking point. The BBC may have to loose it's license to broadcast in order to get a proper open debat on the subject. So be it.

Lloyds, before covid there was a great deal of loose talk about a disease coming along and wiping out half the world's population to balance things out. Actually, the disease did come along!!!! Except the human race was no far enough advanced to make a vaccine before the pandemic could level off the population - oh and woke culture that could never contemplate the laws of nature doing what perhaps had to be done.

So it might have to be that old backup tool of humankind to bring the population back to sustainable levels, war. As you say, to maintain the never ending growth a limit will be reached beyond we can go no further with population growth and blooming debt. Mind you, I have never ever owned an Apple product, or purchased one. So there still might be growth left in the system somewhere!

.... should add, this is where all the climate crap will finally be put under the microscope on a cost benefit analysis. Huge sums, into the trillions are now being thrown away on climate change schemes and the benefits are highly questionable. All those turbines, spinning lumps of very expensive and very high maintenance metal. They are nowhere near offsetting the coal stations closed and we are routinely importing power from France to keep the lights on now. We've been had by smooth talking environmental crap sales people. We could do a lot to curb inflation by stopping wasting all the money on climate change crap.