RE: British Airways owner 'exposed to French and German demands for a break-up'10 Feb 2022 10:31
Last year there were three separate brokers indicating IAG would need an RI based on the state of the books. IAG prevaricate for over a month not making a single comment except a press interview where the CEO stated they were looking at other options BEFORE resorting to an RI. Many quoted an abridged form of the comment stating he said it was ruled out when it wasn't. The sp went into terminal decline the longer IAG continued with no updates and it was reported the city was rife with speculation. Finally the company announced it had taken on more credit in the form of government backed loan. On that basis people have assumed there will be no RI, although a broker recently raised the prospect again thanks to omicron.
The effects of omicron on the business finances will be shown in a couple of weeks. There are a multitude of options depending on what business philosophy IAG and BA decide to take post pandemic. Most of the peer airlines have already had RI and IAG has not. The company has been very quiet about business information and people will factor that into the overall assessment. For me, it is more probably that IAG will do a RI in order to unburden debt and in doing so make BA a far more attractive commodity to be disposed of. Others will equally say it is more probable IAG will use revenue to pay of credit. There is a probability IAG will be forced to dispose of BA anyway, or BA will pass to EU ownership only and the long term plan of the commission to have the 'national flag' of the EU prominent on all EU carriers with lesser state markings showing original origin, like the currency. With IAG so silent, it is anybodies guess as to what they will do!