Member Info for big-blue

ermmm.... this was posted earlier. It isn't as good news as it seems because the PCR test gamble still applies. Tests put off millions from travelling, the faf, the cost and the horror of being positive and having to cancel everything without refunds unless you paid for the insurance.

Spain screwed up not taking into account the age range of vaccinations, has attempted to introduce a quick fix and simply put the exact same restrictions for families with young children back in place. Given what is known about omicron now it is about as stupid as it gets and shows just how political the end of the pandemic is going to be.

Never spread bet in my life, so you must be referring to somebody else.

Ladies, gentlemen and poo flingers, place your bets. You are probably going to get better odds on a Vegas roulette table predicting which way this is going to play.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/traders-now-betting-at-least-one-u-s-fed-hike-will-be-supersized-1.1721603

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/federal-reserve-seen-carrying-out-seven-us-interest-rate-hikes-in-2022-dgk8fqcp5ruecxj.html

https://www.bellinghamherald.com/news/business/article258286628.html

https://www.aircargonews.net/services/ground-handler/strike-action-threatens-vancouver-airport/

Yup, things getting back to normal. More trade union sabotage.

Who needs a job Jtan? Might be taking on some engineering contract work later in the year. I do have a little import export business to keep me busy. Like to keep my hand in and skills up to date.

https://nitravelnews.com/news/jet2-responds-to-spains-covid-relaxation/

Ahh... not so good! The Spanish require 12-17 year olds to provide a negative PCR test. So the gamble is you book and pay for a holiday and hope the test is negative just 72 hrs before departing???? NO! That is the kind of gamble that has crashed the travel market. And it doesn't matter about promises to rebook for free or whatever. A lot of people have booked time of work that they will not be able to get back and most people only have small windows of opportunity to book holidays due to work. So this really doesn't help that much. Best just leave the kids at homme and go without them. Ahhhhh.... now I get it!!!

The new 'USSR' is the soviet EU. Putin longs on jealousy at the way the EU commission enslaved the populations of EU states and slowly but surely suppresses national borders, even installing a single currency. He yearns to return to a soviet Russian at least to the same level as the soviet EU. He wants the same.

The sector prices are very gradually restoring to breakeven. The pop up adds and video box have gone again. The sun is out and warm [despite yet another promise of snow drifts and hellish storms which will never show]. The local KFC will be preparing all the chicken ready for my Friday special. I've shed loads of wonga so don't care if everything tanks anyway. It's a good day.

Parts of the Ukraine are ethnic Russian, like in the 90% with first language Russian. The lands are rich and fertile. There are an abundance of natural resources. It isn't dessert territory. The end of the cold war left borders a bit of a mess around the Soviet satellite states. As with the Balkans, Ukraine and Belarus are unfinished business. Yugoslavia fell into a nasty war and that was enough to contain the problem of borders. But they are back on the table. The Ukrainians are not so innocent in retaining the ethnic Russian enclaves. Putin has upped the ante to kick the EU ass to get on and put proposals to solve it on the table. It needs a people vote solution - but of course the outcome is predictable with the ethnic Russian enclaves. At worst, Russian forces could go in to secure the Russian enclaves on a protection pretense. They put boots on the ground without displacing any Ukrainian forces. That makes diplomatic settlements harder though. But Putin has no intention of invading the whole country. He would just have a never ending insurrection against the invading forces to content with.

The UK market reaction over US inflation on Asian market drop seems to have stabilised at only 2.5% on the sector. Higher recent gainers dipping proportionally more.

Been reading a lot of articles about expectations of fed rates. The consensus I picked up is the market has priced in a 5 stage interest rate hike in the US, but the inflation at the upper levels may result in a 7 stage increase. No early rate hike being talked about. Also, discussion about how real the interest rate hikes are wrt to fuel prices. That is, the rate could fall as quickly as it has risen. So inflation rates could suddenly drop, but interest rates are too high too quick and you end up heading towards recession. We might get some sort of US commentary by 1.30pm GMT before the US markets open. I am not expecting anything to change from what was previously predicted and hence priced in since a big chunk of the inflation is fuel prices that can reverse overnight. So I'm still on for a breakevenish day, maybe even a rise at the end as the sector recovery returns back on track!

IAG cash earnings slump 62%....

Crickey! But wait. Now take a breath and look a bit closer. This is Australia's IAG insurance group. Another lesson for the newbies. Be aware of other shares with the same licker or very similar. You might make some rash decisions rushing to beat the market!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/11/spain-ease-travel-rules-unvaccinated-children-half-term-holiday/

A bit late, haven't hundreds of thousands already cancelled because of the Spanish pre flight rules?

Yes, old cold war attitudes. Putin used to be head of KGB!!!!! Old habits die hard.

https://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/jet2holidays-sees-surge-in-bookings-as-travel-reopens/

Some positive vibes to go with your morning cuppa.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/973853/iag-shares-drop-as-heathrow-airport-reports-weaker-demand-973853.html
"IAG shares drop as Heathrow airport reports weaker demand"
Lazy headline writer? So if that is the impact on IAG, what has impacted all the rest of the sector? Durrrrrrr......

https://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/gatwick-to-reopen-south-terminal-next-month/

Gatwick opening S terminal. Normality resuming, but slowly.

LSE seem to be turning all the popup boxes back on. What an absolute mess they are making of the webpage, AGAIN!

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/797583.html

The apparent call for US citizens to leave Ukraine. However, when you read it, the basis might seem to be more about covid then Russian invasions.

""If remaining in Ukraine, exercise increased caution due to crime, civil unrest, and potential combat operations should Russia take military action," they note.

"There are continued reports of a Russian military build-up on the border with Ukraine, indicating potential for significant military action against Ukraine. The security conditions, particularly along Ukraine's borders, in Russia-occupied Crimea, and in Russia-controlled eastern Ukraine, are unpredictable and can deteriorate with little notice," the recommendations say."

There are a number of countries around the world with the same sort of travel advice, 'watch your back'. This statement doesn't really much and also gets the US of the hook accepting responsibility for its own citizens [media].

Sodding video box is back on every single refresh, all feedback ignored. Far too big and auto plays causing a major distraction. End result? Immediate deletion without absorbing any message. Why oh why do these programmers insist on wrecking web pages with all this multimedia crap?

Remember the war has been going on since Crimea was 'annexed' and thousands have been killed with proxy separatist forces backed by Russia have been trying to annex other ethnic Russian territories. The massing of an invasion force on the border was a ramping up of the situation to poke a response from the West which results in a settlement and an end to hostilities in the disputed zones. It was a face saving way out of what is becoming a protracted conflict that Putin clearly wants to end. But it took weeks and weeks before the west made any response to a huge invasion force. Putin must have been quite bewildered as to why there was simply no response to such a huge force and I think it was becoming a real concern to him maintaining the force [fuel, supplies] for a very unplanned extended time!! Eventually there was a response when Nato started talking about it and the French/Germans/EU who had taken the reigns on the situation previously very belatedly got going with the staged diplomacy. Nato forces are no going through the routine of shows of support moving arms and some forces around, despite the bloody Germans being very awkward about it. Putin has basically been put in the embarrassing position of having an open door invasion opportunity which he didn't want and has had to sit on his hands whilst a very incompetent EU got their act together. Now Putin can point to the 5000 helmets and advise suing for peace using some sort of peoples choice in the ethnic regions. If he did try an incursion, his army would have the sh.it kicked out of it. Whilst Russia has some sophisticated weapons and boots on the ground, it is no match for British and American technology. There will be no Balkan like restrictions on rules of engagement on this one, it would be gloves off - which is why Putin was never going to go for an 'invasion'.

I don't think there is any chance at all of Russia taking any action, nor was there any. There is puffing up of feathers on both sides as the end game is played out. Putin has finally got western leaders engaging with his demands, he has the French as primary brokers so will get most of what he wants [in return for a backroom deal for the French re fuel of course]. The event that is happening at the moment is combat exercises with Belarus, and the Russian propaganda machine will ensure the West is flooded with images of Russian tanks and warplanes making a lot noise and explosions. Broadcasters like the BBC will ramp up the propaganda on behalf of their Russian comrades just as they have done with Truss' visit yesterday as it will continue the anti-Boris campaign.

Sit back, relax and enjoy a week of good old fashioned cold war propaganda broadcasts. This is nothing compared to the good 'ol days.