Member Info for big-blue

Which way's up Putin?

lol

They've left Rostov. People are complaining about the sate of the roads after the tanks chewed them up. Wagner were given a standing ovations and cheered on as they left.

If this isn't a putsch then the Kremlin will be very VERY worried by that display - unintended consequences?

Two narratives are emerging. The 'deal' was a con to buy time so Putin could deescalate the situation, then strike back hard. I fovoured that one yesterday and still do.

The other is it is a put up job to relocate Wagner in Belarus to carry out a strike on Kyiv or Poland. Yes Poland. The basis being Wagner is not Russian but rogue and so Russia isn't responsible so any action by NATO would be an attack and hence Putin can qualify a nuclear strike.

Papa has apparently gone to ground. Is he hiding from the air strike on his vehicle? Or is he preparing the base to launch an attack from Belarus?

We know Putin is now desperate to get NATO involved in all out war as a cover for the defeat in Ukraine. We know he wants to use nuclear weapons to give the impression Russia is some sort of superpower to be frightened of. The Ukraine war has erased all pretense of being a super power or having an army to be feared.

Putin wants to look tough so Papa is a dead man. Putin still needs to kick start the war with NATO, possibly with the large scale nuclear dirty bomb at the power plant.

Which ever way he turns, he has boxed himself in and for his mental landscape the only way out is extreme violence. He may end up simply trying to nuke Ukraine anyway in a last ditched effort to force his fantasy world as a reality.

Https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-approves-plan-to-blow-up-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant/

They blew up the dam. The reactors are next.

You cruel bastard.

Now you've said it, I want some. I need some. I must have iced gems.

The civil war to come is a given. As the Russian army is finally driven out of Ukraine the recriminations and breakdown of he narrative will unfold. Prig has already had his 'truth' broadcast replayed across most of Russian social media re the mythical existentialist threat and all the Nazi rubbish. Prigie may well have moved too early trying make a clean neat coup of the corrupt and even with the intent of keeping Putin in power.

But whether with a clear defined leader as in Papa or a messy multi-way and ethnic divided violent extended civil war, once the lid is lifted off the pressure cooker, the knives will be out and there will be mayhem across all 11 time zones. The propaganda narrative on telly may appear strong and complete, but whenever the lid is lifted it is quickly discovered just how different people were thinking all along.

Population compliance to organised propaganda is an illusion. Ask the vote remain camp. The net zero zealots are also discovering this as that house of cards continues to collapse too. And as for the media trying to control the vote against Trump................

"might"?

One question, Did Prigozhin accept a high rise penthouse apartment or bungalow with all windows at ground level for his residence?

A reasonable summary of events here, introduces the Belarusian angle which may be bigger than expected.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/25/7408419/

POLY? Oh yeah, my prediction is big sp drop Monday and for all Russian stocks as the instability causes further market turmoil.

More to this, Putin attempted to buy off Priggie with millions. The exile arrangement was already in place. Prig was happy to go to Moscow until the Chechens sided with Putin (price unknown).

But the biggest overall is the lack of opposition to Wagner on the ground. He appears to have been articulating for all the rank and file - and now he has just dumped on them. Expectation is increasing mutiny along Russian frontline without a leading definable advocate against the senior military. Middle ranking and a few high ranking left stranded, may rebel.

Collapse of the command structure was already visible in some areas, that may well accelerate. Ukraine stepping up attacks. Psychologists will explain this in terms of how a team falls apart on the field of play as the final whistle approaches with no hope of victory. This is underway amongst Russian forces.

Saturday was a major hammer blow on the concrete wall, a big chunk fell off as a big crack was exposed.

The grand old duke of York.

No resistance to think of. Curious. A full blow armed convey heading to Moscow with full narrative for all to see and hear. A key bit filmed on a tripod mounted camera. With Prig rather aware of the camera. A rather animated discussion with the two Russian generals.

I did speculate earlier that these of passage could have been under orders from rhe Kremlin.

Was it a stunt?

Very reminisant of the attempted coup against Yeltsin. All sorts of funny weird things going on. Anybody rember the little police car chasing the black limo round the streets😂

.. and last word, this is just one of aa number of private armies. Any of them can turn alligenc on a whim. Russia looks completely vulnerable and defenceless, good opportunity for some old scores to be settled by border states and internal ethnic groups.

When faced with overwhelming odds against you, first promise everything the other side wants. Convince them. Then kill them when they let their guard down.

A major crackdown has already commenced against retired and former Wagnerites across Russia. See what happens when the active members find out. When Prig is killed. When artillery open fire on Wagner camps. Next time, there'll be no u turn on the motorway.

I just can't get my head around how Prig has been so easily duped.

"Putin position in Russia will be stronger "

Oh yeah? Explain the very obvious lack of resistance to a small private army openly declaring they are going to Moscow to crush the regime. Stronger? Are you sure?

Actually BSR, I named the town the convoy would stop near to regroup and prepare for an assault. It is just possible the Wagner line has advanced so fast it is very stretched out and this is he regrouping. On a battlefield thelast thing you wantis extended lines of supply.

The whole thing is very odd. Nothing adds up here. I'd still stock up with the water and claim your underground space. Partisans and others will now be on manoeuvre without communication.

No fat lady singing yet.

Shall we start a sweepstake, how soon before Papa announces he has been double crossed (assuming he lives long enough). Major aggressive clamp down already being dealt out to Wagner former members with raids on homes and extended family. The eradication of Wagner as a friend of Russia has already begun. Well, it had already begun yesterday when the Russian army started bombing Wagner to begin with. That will simply re-commence once they are in barracks.

I've merely reported as events unfolded. I do predict civil war. It came bloody close today. The stable door is now over. I also predicted too and fro events. My main prediction on civil war is when Russia is pushed out of Ukraine. That will happen, today exposed some critical information, not least what forces Putin will call upon when the civil war kicks off and just how exposed Russia is internally with no civil defence structure to speak of.

What failed prediction?

There is one huge massive big thing revealed by this though. Wagner encountered very little opposition from forces that didn't want to hinder or get in the way, and also the fact there were so few army units around. There will be a lot of very disappointed Russian soldiers tonight. Capitulation on the front line and surrender seemes the only logical way out now. Plenty of upper levels of command will have started to prepare and move against Moscow orders. They have been left in no mans land as Ukraine escalates the counter offensive.

Talk about clowns in a circus. Can't even carry out an insurection without turning that into a farce too. None have them have got a clue. Idiots before the world. What must new best buddies China be thinking about the friendship without end now?