Member Info for Biffadog

WW,

HUR did more than just attempt to test WD.

It was given the full DST programme, it's just that the well failed to produce the goods.

"So the question is, were there losses during the drilling of Warwick West?" and that's the $64M question.

Answers on a postcard....

Just for the record, when Roy Kelly said about Kerogen holding HUR until the big pay day, the WD well result was not known and the view at the time was that the WD drill was progressing well.

I was one of the 5 or so people in the post AGM conversation as Genghis can confirm.

Not sticking up for Roy Kelly or Kerogen but just wanted to point that out.

I was as ****ed off as anybody when they sold down 110M shares at 46.5p. Really helped the cause. Upshot is somebody readily bought 110M shares knowing the WD result. Must fancy the rest of HUR's prospects.

Interesting today mind......

GLA.

Every HUR drill so far has hit fractures. That’s not the hard bit.

WD hit fractures just not the right ones (awaiting full report from HUR).

At WW they will have hit fractures. That’s a bloody given.

Seismic easily finds the fractures but can not identify content, ability to flow and ultimate connectivity.

Hope this helps.....

GLA.

EV,

What road show and what's that go to do with the price of fish anyway ?

I'm not certainly not aware of any roadshow at the end of November. There was one recently, if that's what you were thinking of.

If anything, HUR are only going to do a road show if things are going well, as they have no need to raise any money for the company coffers (they have plenty of cash and are throwing it off all the time), so It's only purpose would be to bring new money into the market to boost the SP.

You don't do that on the back of bad news.

I think your nervousness is probably caused by not knowing how to call it.

GLA.

FB,

I have no idea when HUR are going to attract some new institutional money to the table and that is undoubtably what the SP needs to forge ahead.

HUR is certainly suffering from "investor fatigue", that's for sure.

I think it's fairly safe to say that HUR need at least one more successful well and a few more months continuous EPS production (backed up by a second detailed report), before those boys start to arrive in town.

In addition, I think the GE needs to be over and done with and to have produced a conclusive result on Brexit but that's more of an aside.

I don't believe HUR is derisked to the level that those sort of investors require at this moment in time.

However, we are finally getting very close to this point.

Sometimes it's worth just reflecting on how far HUR have come in the last 3 years and just how strong they are financially rather than getting bogged down in the day to day SP movements. We all do it .

GLA.

FB,

Had a quick look and the consensus seems to be Giant Fields are over 500M barrels recoverable and Super-Giant Fields are over 1B barrels recoverable. Here's just one example below.

http://www.britannica.com/science/petroleum/World-distribution-of-oil#ref502624

On that basis, HUR easily have the potential for two "super-giant fields" in GLA and GWA.

Happy to split hairs with you but I think it's pretty safe to say HUR have a ****ing shed load of oil WOS.

GLA.

Hi Albi1,

What I meant was, don't read anything into the fact that this was a recent deduction by HUR and thus used as the subject matter for this presentation, and as such, it's only now that HUR have been confident they have at least two "super-giant fields".

They have known this for a very long time now and I agree with them 100% from everything I have read, BOD I have spoken to and AGMs and presentations I have personally attended (I will also be there on the 28th November FWIW).

Of course, HUR have two "super-giant fields" in GLA and GWA. They are simply massive.

That's why we most of us are here.

GLA.

HUR have been referring to GLA and GWA as "super giant fields" for a long time. Dates back to 2017.

It's nothing new so don't read anything into that.

Anybody that wants to attend the presentation only needs to register for a ticket. It's free and tickets are still available.

GLA.

BB,

I didn't say clkmouse was wrong. He could get lucky.

All I pointed out was that last time out clkmouse very obviously did not have a reliable source or any inside information but was quite happy to state with authority that he knew when the DST was going to happen.

He was miles out.

I doubt anything has changed this time around.

We are getting close to the DST stage, so any fool can say expect DST this weekend, or even next weekend, or even the one after that for that matter.

GLA.

clkmouse,

I take it you are having a laugh.

I say this because last time out, your well test date predictions were many and wrong.

The DST testing at Lincoln was conducted over the weekend of the 7th/8th September.

On the 6th August you said DST was going to be the 19th August and on the 13th August you revised this to month end.

Suggest everybody ignores your post as last time out it was pure BS.

GLA.

the street,

Here's the quote. It refers to high impact exploration wells and has no direct reference to any wells HUR are drilling (past or present).

"LONDON – In the first half of 2019, 51 high-impact exploration wells were completed, compared to 36 in the same period in 2018, according to Westwood Global Energy.
Senior analyst Jamie Collard said gas discoveries are up and oil down on 2018. The commercial success rate has also improved, running at 37% so far compared to ~27% recorded in 2017 and 2018."

You are a ****ing moron but I guess you ay least know that, don't you ?

GLA.

6 moths solid production from FOIL is the 5th December, so not long now.

Hopefully get a CMD in January 2020 with a detailed update on the EPS.

Tanker offloads seems to be indicating a steady production level above guidance.

No RNS from HUR to say there have been any problems with the EPS thus far.

COS forWarwick overall was given as 75%. Nobody has publically given a COS for WW as an individual prospect, so quoting 35% COS is a load of old tosh.

Them be the facts.....

GLA.

Hi ronok,

I admire your optimism. Let's hope it is well placed.

The result of WW is likely to be mid to late November (19th November is exactly 8 weeks from spud) going on the recent Lincoln well.

The WD well took a bit longer but there were fairly well documented delays to that drill.

Still way too early for DST and flaring. It's all about the drilling fluid losses at the moment. IMHO.

GLA.

You could have fooled me reading all the comments on here (by you and others) regarding manipulation and why the SP is so stagnant at the moment....

You seem to forget that we are but a matter of a few weeks away from a major drill result.

The SP action and low volume is but a reflection of the uncertainty until the result of WW is known. It's just treading water that's all.

Just my opinion but surprised nobody has mentioned this today.

GLA.

EV,

Nobody is dumping anything. The volume is tiny. Hence the effect on the SP of relatively small trading volumes.

Having read back through your posts over the 4 weeks or so you have been registered on LSE (under this name at least), you seem to fall firmly into the "sower of the seed of doubt" category.

Just another parasite....DYOR folks.

GLA.

Look, I'm sure it will all come out in the wash but it's not as clear cut as cyan2 might have it. His view is rather simplistic to say the least.

GLA.

"Rockhopper’s share of Sea Lion Phase 1 development fully funded post project sanction through $337 million Development Carry and $750 million Standby Loan from Premier"

What you need to understand is that a whole heap of stuff has changed since the original PMO/RKH deal and that everything is very much up in the air until there i clarification on the ECA/UKEF funding.

However take the $750M stand by loan from PMO. Good luck with that. No chance.

If you have your doubts then phone RKH yourself and get clarification.

I'm not saying it won't go ahead, I'm just pointing out what's in play. That's my lot.

GLA.

Morning Whackford,

Apologies for any confusion I may have caused. It was certainly not intentional.

When the project cost was $1.5B we had $800M from the ECA, $400M from the service companies (pretty much agreed) and $300-400M cash from RKH and PMO.

Whilst RKH have a $337M carry, there was no certainty at the time that this could be split between the the ECA part and the cash the actual companies would need to find. This is up in the air and is for RKH to negotiate with PMO.

So, if RKH cannot get that flexibility, it might well meant that they only get 40% of the $300-400M ($160M at 40% of $400M) and "lose" the rest of the carry. That was certainly the situation a while back when I spoke to RKH about it.

However, if the ECA funding does not come up trumps, it may well be that RKH manage to transfer the remaining $217M of the carry ($377M-$160M) over to the ECA part of the deal.

RKH need 40% of that $800M which is $320M, so even then they are a bit short.

However the project cost has now increased to $1.8B so RKH require an extra $120M (40% of $300M).

So even in the best case scenario, RKH are $223M short on the costs to fund Sea Lion with no discernible cash flow to pay G&A before Sea Lion produces oil.

My main point still stands though. The gamble is not whether Sea Lion will go ahead.

It almost certainly will and PMO have various options to pay for their share comfortably.

The gamble is on what basis RKH can manage to fund their share should the ECA funding not come be approved (in part or while). Even a small amount of ECA funding will bring with it the banks. Without any UKEF funding in the pot, the banks are not interested. That is fact.

Maybe I painted a picture that was a little too grim but if you don't understand how this deal is put together then you can't make an informed decision on how good a punt it may or may not be.

I wish you all luck and may well join you.

GLA.

I am not saying UKEF application will fail. Far from it and yes, I agree that UKEF have plenty of funding available.

Either way PMO will go ahead with Sea Lion. That is pretty much a given.

All I am saying is that if you are a RKH shareholder the gamble is not whether Sea Lion will go ahead, the gamble is whether PMO get UKEF funding as without UKEF funding RKH are up the creek without a paddle. They do not have the luxury PMO have for raising funds to pay for 40% of Sea Lion.

If UKEF funding comes in then you win. If UKEF funding does not come in then the best you can hope for is a sale of the company, as any other route (equity raise, CBs etc) leads to massive dilution to current shareholders.

I've lost money on RKH from 50p down, so just weighing up whether to have a punt at the 18p level or not.

I just think it's important to understand the bet that's all.

GLA.