Member Info for Biffadog

Fair enough.

They are flaring the gas not the bloody oil !!!

Polite Request.

Can you lot STFU about Greta, Brexit and UK politics.

If that's what gets you through the day, then why not set up a Facebook page and you can chatter to your heart's content,

GLA.

Mover123,

That is the incorrect.

Flaring at LC was on Saturday/Sunday and an RNS was released on the Thursday to confirm oil type, flow rates etc and ultimately the success of LC.

There was an RNS on The Monday but that was just to let the market know that HCs had been encountered (flaring) and DST had begun.

On that basis, Monday would appear to be favourite for an RNS with the WW drill results.

GLA.

WW,

Obviously you need an RNS with oil type, flow rates etc to confirm that WW is another huge find.

All I’m saying is that it is a good start. No more, no less.

The flare is real remark was addressed to tcf anyway, so don’t get your knickers in a twist.

GLA.

The flare is real.

I think the cat's already well and truly out of the bag !!!

That's a big old flare and you need a decent flow rate to produce one that size.

Looks very similar to the LC flare.

Plenty of HCs in WW !!

GLA.

Just as an aside, WW was spudded on the 24th September and exactly 8 weeks later, on the 19th November at about midday, a bloody great flare is sighted on the TOL.

Maybe make a note for the drilling in 2020, that 8 weeks is a reasonable time frame for this type of drill.

Anyway, HUR back on track on the drilling front and looking forward to the WW results RNS in the next few days.

GLA.

Mr Toad,

You make a very good point.

If WW has indeed communicated with the pressure gauge at LC then this could be a truly monumental find.

With regard to the DST, the well was initially flowed (flaring) for 24 hours before being shut in again.

Looking good today.

GLA.

LC wasn't constrained by surface equipment as was the case with the Lancaster wells.

I checked with HUR after the LC drill result RNS.

9.8k flow was achieved with the aid of an ESP, however I would expect far better flow rates once the well is properly cleaned up for production.

GLA.

Hi treaty,

I agree that at the moment the opportunity for large scale trading is very limited. The main reason is that there is a big unknown on the immediate horizon. That's why the SP is in the doldrums.

What I was alluding to are the extreme swings in the SP over a period of time. Big positions are built at the bottom, the SP is tickled up and then they all bail and short it back down again.

For example, the quick build up to FOIL and the sell off immediately thereafter.

GLA.

Hi Alexious,

That's what it says in the corporate presentations and I think most on here are aware of that, however AS alluded to bringing the drilling forward on GLA to 2020 at the CMD in July 2019.

Whilst the PBLJ has been booked for 2020, it has yet to be announced where it will be drilling, although GWA is the most likely area.

GLA.

There would appear to be very little in the way of information on drilling fluid losses.

The bottom line is that nobody on here seems to know whether the drilling fluid losses have been significant or not, so no conclusions can be drawn either way.

Info on drilling fluid losses at LC and WD leaked out but this time round it would appear that the TOL is a very tight ship/rig.

GLA.

Hi MCB55,

Good point regarding the lead time on rig hire.

That would mean HUR would have to refinance the CBs (as opposed to just buying them back from the cash pile) if they also want to drill GLA in 2020.

Speaking of rig hire. It would be nice to know where the PBLJ will be drilling in 2020. GLA or GWA ?

HUR have been unusually quiet about this. Maybe all will become clear after the WW result.

On a separate note, the CBHs are not controlling the SP. Once they have taken out their initial short position as part of a CB arbitrage strategy, they tend to only make fairly minor adjustments to the short position going forward. The aim is to achieve a delta neutral strategy and receive the 7.5% coupon on a relatively risk free basis. One only needs to look at Polygon's short position to see that the changes over time are not substantial.

HUR are being played by the big institutional traders, that's the fact of the matter.

GLA.

That's a key point.

It could well boil down to a choice of drilling GLA in Q2/Q3 2020 or buying out the CBs.

However, it's important to remember that once we have past the 14th August 2020, the SP must be over 78 cents for this to happen.

Only then can HUR buy back the CBs at par plus accrued interest. That's when things might get a little interesting.

I would love HUR to be shot of the CBHs and the golden ticket would be to take out another loan to do this and drill GLA in 2020.

It's important to understand that HUR had to go the CB route to get the 2017 $530M deal off the ground. The CBs sweetened the purchase of the straight equity and I doubt the deal would have got off the ground otherwise. CBs do tend to have lower interest rates attached but this comes with considerable downside. IMHO.

GLA.

To avoid upset, it’s probably best to avoid positing your private life or medical conditions on an O&G BB.

Harsh but true.

No view on WW result.

Hopefully it will be good but news on drilling fluid losses hard to come by on this drill.

DST yet to start so the jury would appear to be out.

HUR shut the door on speculation on Friday. Could be read either way, I don’t know what conclusion to draw and to suggest you know what the RNS points to with regard to the WW result is total BS.

Hopefully the result will be good.

Number of shares in issue is totally irrelevant as a stand alone factor, so please avoid stating it in the way you have done previously, as it is misleading.

MCap is the deciding factor and that is what the market supposedly defines. Work it backwards using number of shares in issue to get the SP.

2B shares or 500m matters not a jot.

Them be the facts.....

GLA.

TDG,

The number of share is issue matters not a jot.

Punters buy shares by £ and not by number ion shares. The first part defines the second.

With 2B share currently in issue HUR would have an MCap of £1.2B at 60p (not £1.5B), so you're way out there.

The CBs are but CBs and at this stage it remains to be seen if they are converted into equity or bought back by HUR.

Either way, they do not count as shares at this moment in time, and as such, have nothing to do with shares in issue.

I agree that a "big surge in then SP" would likely require a major as a F.O partner for GLA or a prospect of HUR being bought out as a whole.

However, the value of HUR is subjective and some would argue that a good result at WW would restore confidence lost by the WD result and the continued success of the EPS (CMD in January 2020) will prove up FB once and for all WOS.

Bearing in mind the sheer scale of the discoveries this far, once FB is finally proven up must surely come a substantial rerate of the SP.

At that point in time a MCap of 1.5B is more than realistic.

Having said this, I fully appreciate that your comments are very much bias towards the very short term (if I take your trade in/trade out at face value) and your take is going to be different to mine.

Once the EPS is fully proven up and the risk factor has been suitably reduced and those that have the buying power have been allowed to load up it will fly. IMHO.

Whether that is in January, June or December of next year, I have no idea but value will out, as there is simply way too much potential here to be ignored.

I don't think a good result at WW will have a lasting effect on the SP. Short term spike no doubt but I'm sure it will settle back down soon enough. What it does do is underwrite the FB concept, and in the long run, that's what counts.

Patience required as always but hopefully approaching the home straight.

Just my take FWIW.

GLA.

"An update will be provided once testing commences and on the completion of well testing."

I think use of the word "and" is a bit of a giveaway.......2 RNSs.

GLA.

HUR have no need for any acquisitions.

They have more than enough quality acreage in a concentrated area to spend their hard earned substantial free cash flow on.

Also, any acquisition would put a considerably strain on HUR's BOD and frankly I don't think they have then time or resources for it.

I imagine it is the last thing on the BOD's mind.

HUR's stated strategy is pretty straightforward. They have outlined a detailed 5 year plan to develop GLA and GWA, with or without a further FO partner and make no secret the company is up for sale at any stage, if somebody offers a decent price.

Until that happens, they will just continue with the plan that's out there for all to see. Simple really.

So until HUR are sold, they just carry on with the plan and building the value of the company.

GLA.