Member Info for Biffadog

Unfortunately, the water cut information as provided by HUR in this RNS is ambiguous.

This is disappointing as the last thing an RNS should be is unclear.

The initial data showed a water cut of 8% and 0% respectively when each well was run solo with the other shut in.

Obviously, when running two wells through one flow line, individual well water cut data is not possible to establish.

I cannot imagine it’s 7.5% in total across both wells but fail to see how it can be accurately attributed between the two wells.

My assumption would be that one well is still at 0% and the other is slightly lower now at 7.5% but HUR cannot know this for sure when using only one flow line.

Again, HUR could do with being more concise.

I think not providing more detail on what the flow line problem was and confirmation that the issue has been permanently fixed is an oversight.

At least the wells are demonstrating excellent production but shame they will be restricted in H2 so data gathering can take place.

I suppose with 14k bopd in the first quarter as a direct result of no no data gathering exercises/ shut ins makes up for it.

Swings and roundabouts and all that.

Having said al of that l’m feeling 100% confident with EPS and a result at Lincoln will finally underwrite the HUR investment case.

GLA.

TCF,

IMPORTANT: Both wells have been producing. The issue was that only one flow line was working, so production from both wells has flowed through the one flowline.

This means that individual well testing has been restricted and this has put back the data gathering aspect of the EPS.

This also means the water cut cannot be broken down in detail. HUR’s RNS was very ambiguous and I have asked for clarification.

However, I read it that the water cut is from perched water only and remains as previously described.

Production has not been negatively affected and has averaged out at 14k bopd.

I have asked for some clarification on the flow line problem and confirmation that it has been permanently fixed.

GLA.

Clear outa few of the chickens.

No volume. No news. Tight ship.

GLA.

F22 is a charlatan. No more, no less. Ignore.

Hi BB,

That is indeed true. Overproduction is also by definition “outside of guidance”.

I will clarify if they intend to inform if above guidance but I suspect not, as OGA figures will show overproduction, albeit 3 months out of date.

There are good reasons for not releasing figures for each offload. For example, imagine the panic by some on here if one offload was lower than the previous when it might just have been a result of pigging or downtime due to routine maintenance.

Not saying this is right or wrong but the bottom line is if there is no RNS then all is fine and dandy.

GLA.

It’s quite simple really.

HUR will only RNS if production falls short of guidance.

Until the next Trading Update, we will be reliant on OGA production figures (which are 3 months in arrears).

No new subsurface data until Q1 2020.

GLA.

WW,

It's all there in black and white. However, just for you, I'll spell it out.

HUR have given their guidance of 9k bopd (first 3 months from June 5th FOIL), 13k bopd (next 3 months) and 17k bopd (6 months plus after FOIL).

If they fall short of these targets, there will be an RNS.

Otherwise we are reliant on OGA production figures published 3 moths in arrears.

For better or worse, HUR are not going to spoon feed the market. There are reasons for this but I'm not going to spell it out in this post as it's quite a lengthy explanation.

New subsurface data will be available in Q1 2020 in a Trading Update (followed by a CMD).

GLA.

To set the record straight on this one, it's first important to firstly make the distinction between production data and subsea data.

Production data is simply barrels of oil produced, whilst the subsea data tells us all about the well's performance characteristics in detail.

With that in mind, herewith the latest from HUR.

"There is a distinction between production and subsurface data. Unless there is a problem requiring an RNS, the next major update on the subsurface will be Q1 2020.

Production data will be available in arrears with a lag of three months. The OGA publishes the data given to them by operators on this schedule on its website. To the extent that this will be materially outside of our guidance, we would need to RNS ahead of this."

Hopefully that clarifies the situation.

GLA.

Frustrating as it is, I think it's safe to say that at this precise moment in time, nobody on here knows anything.

GLA.

4.5M in last 30 minutes of trading.

That's 50% of an average trading day. More so of late.

Advise caution as Redoctober58 still talking about flaring on ADVFN when anybody with any decent info will be peddling drilling fluid losses (or lack of). Not talking about mud either.

Interesting times though. P&D into the weekend or genuine news ?

GLA.

Carcosa61,

5th September is not the actual start date for the WC drill.

It is just the earliest start date.

They need to put a date on the permit application is all.

There is no way HUR know what the actual start date for WC is when LC is only mid drill !!

Hope that helps.

GLA.

Draught subject to other influences as well actual oil cargo.

Bill of lading every time. Keep them coming.

Thanks Amaja.

No news either way at the moment.

The volume is way, way too low for any news to have leaked.

First news point is drilling fluid losses (or lack of) followed by flare (or lack of) followed closely by HIR RNS.

GLA.

ash666,

FPSO (bare boat charter), crew costs. helicopter flights, safety vessels and offloads are already included in the $28 Opex.

Makes sense really as both the headline figures you have identified fall rather firmly into Opex anyway.

More importantly, Opex costs are due to fall to $20 in 2020.

Just plain facts. No more, no less.

GLA.

Not possible.

Kerogen cannot sell anymore shares until at least mid-November at the earliest (see 17th July RNS).

http://ir.q4europe.com/Solutions/Hurricane2018tf/3942/newsArticle.aspx?storyid=14381478

In any case, Kerogen are not going to just sell 14M shares on the open market after selling 110M in one hit.

Makes no sense, even if it were possible, which it is not,

It's simple really, drilling fluid losses or no drilling fluid losses, nothing else matters.

GLA.

Hi DC,

Apologies. I forgot to take into account Opex. Worth pointing out that from 2020 Opex is only $20 and hopefully will reduce further from there.

Even so it puts over $100M in the HUR war chest and with no big capex on the immediate horizon I would agree with you that a rig booking is imminent. It would be nice to see a drill or two in GLA in 2020 as imitated at the AGM.

About time somebody stuck a horizontal in Halifax and cleared that one up once and for all.

GLA.

That’s circa $125M hard cash in HUR’s bank account and rising by about $25M every 4 weeks.

Nice work if you can get it.

GLA.

Should read “fair play” but you get the drift.

Just a thought, but I’m surprised that anybody is even discussing flaring before drilling fluid losses (or lack of).

Nowhere near DST at Lincoln yet.

FWIW my position hasn’t changed and I’m 100% long on HUR.

Obviously the EPS is going extremely well and a result at Lincoln will underwrite the HUR investment case once and for all.

Rampers and derampers are as bad as each other. Just like to see fair news play and informative posts.

GLA.

I don't know the answer to that question FS22.