Member Info for Biffadog

I think there is very little doubt (if any) that PMO will progress with Sea Lion.

The question is how it is funded and the implications of this to RKH.

If the ECA funding does not come in, then PMO have plenty of other options to finance Sea Lion.

The sale of Zama will help, combined with cash flow and/or some other form of corporate finance. Plenty of options, especially now that PMO's debt is starting to come down to manageable levels ($1.5B is current target).

RKH have no other options available (an equity raise would struggle to raise the sort of money required and in any case would wipe out current shareholders. CBs would do much the same) and would most probably will end up having to sell the company to the highest bidder.

Without ECA funding the banks are not interested in Sea Lion. Fact. Both TD and SM have acknowledged this. The banks want to see the UK government with some skin in the game due to the political uncertainty down in the Falklands. They don't require the full $800M from UKEF, as even a gesture is probably enough for the banks to get involved.

So the gamble with RKH is not whether or not Sea Lion will get signed off.

The gamble is whether or not PMO and RKH get the ECA funding, because without this RKH are sunk.

The Ombrina Mare litigation matters not a jot either way, as even if RKH were awarded compensation at the higher end of the scale, it still does not get close to covering their share of Sea Lion.

Unfortunately the BOD of RKH gradually gave away all the upside of the original deal with PMO and are now left with SFA and have long since frittered away the $231M in cash they received back in 2012 and now have nothing to show for it.

If the ECA funding comes in though, then there is light at the end of the tunnel.

If not, things look very bleak for RKH and the best outcome for current share holders is the sale of the company to the highest bidder.

FWIW I don't hold any RKH at the moment but have held along the way and lost a lot of money. Just trying to weigh up the odds and decide whether to have a punt on a good outcome.

I wish you all luck whatever happens.

GLA.

WW is correct.

All FPSOs are in essence of a similar design to do a similar task and its only really when the get to the later stages of the build that they require customising for a specific project.

The main factor is the size and this is to a great degree decided from the outset. The other main factor to consider is type of oil to be produced.

When hiring or buying a second hand one, it is usual for the FPSO to be reworked, to a greater or lesser degree, for the new field, which again demonstrates this point.

I cannot remember where I read it, but my understanding was that there are in fact 3 large FPSOs under construction looking for new owners. This was about a year ago, so they may not all still be available. Its a growing market so I guess they think there is ready demand for these vessels.

GLA.

Hi aduk,

Just to set the record straight and draw a line under the whole thing, SIPP is still fully invested in HUR and the only reason he no longer posts on LSE is he has had enough of your unfounded libellous accusations and I can't say I blame him.

You were way off the mark and jumped to unfounded conclusions. I know this to be true.

I think the fact that you lost a lot of friends as a direct result of your outrageous behaviour on SIPP's board says an awful lot and you should reflect on that.

Hopefully that's the end of that and I wish you well as I don't think you are a bad person, despite what happened.

GLA.

aduk,

Whatever he may or may not be, TDG is not SIPP. Trust me you are barking up the wrong tree !!

GLA.

Also 20k bopd Is a much better assessment of HUR’s 2020 production rates.

Spirit are paying 50% of the rig hire costs on the first three wells on GWA.

This is assuming the PBLJ is assigned to GWA and not a sneaky drilling campaign on GLA. I suspect the former is much more likely, given the length of hire.

Either way, nice to see the rig booked and a rig that proved reliable for HUR previously.

GLA.

Correction: Meant to say 16th October at about 12:30pm.

TDG actually sold the bulk of his holding (fantasy) when the SP was around the 42.5p level yesterday according to his own posts.

GLA.

Afternoon IJWT,

I invite everybody to take a quick glance back through my posts.

I most certainly do not post trades. If you can find a post where I have said that I've "just sold x HUR shares for x p" or "just bought x HUR shares for x p" then good luck to you.

Haven't you got enough on your plate ramping over on the ECO LSE board and bigging up Gil Holzman, a CEO with no O&G experience at all, with a patchy history to say the least (galavanting round Africa cutting mining deals with whatever African Dictator/Politician is open to a deal) and a reputation for selling it somewhat (I notice Tullow don't share his enthusiasm for the find).

Your last "messiah" was James Parsons of Sound Energy and that didn't end well did it ?

Anyway, I look forward to seeing you at the HUR event on the 28th November, as I seem to remember the last time you asked RT a question (2018 AGM) he totally humiliated you in front of the whole room.

Don't forget one of the investors you know was sitting right next to you !!

Never mind. Sometimes best to listen to the answer and digest rather than keep piling in. Hope your balancing act between HUR and ECO is going fine and dandy and you get to make the "**** off money" you said was your aim. That phrase says an awful lot about you, you know. I don't hang about with anybody that would use that phrase. Would walk a mile in fact.

GLA.

tindrumgambler,

Hate to say it but the only people who post their trades are either fantasy traders or complete knobs.

Take your pick.....

GLA.

Hi chablard,

Fair point. I should have put "discuss" but probably subconsciously typed "argue" as that's mostly what happens on here.

I'll leave it to the fantasy traders and TA merchants to provide the afternoon's entertainment.

GLA.

All I am saying is that it's wrong to solely blame CA for the SP not being higher than it is today.

Feel free to argue the rest amongst yourselves but ultimate proof of concept and lack of new institutional buyers sit right up there on my list.

GLA.

The declared profits have come by and large from selling down nearly 90M HUR shares over the last few years.

Way back in 2016 CA held nearly 200M shares. Today they hold 109M.

I agree that CA have probably traded the share a bit along the way but I'm not sure that's the case anymore.

It's pretty irrelevant anyway as even if they did, it's only a small percentage of the trading action that goes on here.

Having said that, sooner or later the trade will be upwards as the risk is seen to have been removed and it will work to the advantage of those who are long.

I'm not defending CA, far from it but I think those that just blame CA need to look at the sheer volume when the trade is made and they will see it is many large traders and CA are but a small part of the action.

Blame the traders if you want somebody to blame.

Personally I think RB is one of the smuggest individuals I have met and I didn't like the way he publicly laid into the HUR BOD one little bit when he got caught out way overexposed to HUR back in 2017. Just like to get the facts straight that's all.

GLA.

Except you both failed to point out the bit about CA's HUR holding remaining constant at 5.2%.

If anything CA have been increasing their stake since July.

Jul 5.0%
Aug 5.1%
Sept 5.2%
Oct 5.2%

Puts that one to bed next time anybody says "CA are selling down their holding and that's why the SP is not going up"

GLA.

Hi Genghis,

Will see you at the RGS on the 28th November for the presentation. I think a few off the others are going. Be interesting to hear what RT has to say.

ATB
BD.

I would expect to see WW drilled and tested by mid November if Lincoln is anything to go by.

I'm sure if it is delayed for any reason and RT need to be on the TOL, he will simply rearrange the lecture. A lecture is much less important than the AGM after all. Still not sure why he got so much criticism for being at the sharp end of the operation and had to miss the AGM as a result. Still most of that criticism (if not all of it) came from people who didn't even attend the AGM.

FWIW CA haven't sold a significant tranche of HUR shares since they sold about half of the shares they received as a result of the warrants way back in May. About 10M or 0.5%.

Although CA have traded HUR, it's not as prolific as some would suggest and most of CA's profit on HUR has come as a result of reducing a holding of over nearly 200M shares down to 109M over a period of about two years.

I think now that CA's exposure to HUR and HUR's risk profile have both dramatically decreased, you will not see any more significant sales in the foreseeable future. It's been pretty constant at around 5.0% to 5.5% for a while now. Previously CA used to sell shares pretty much in 20M tranches.

For the record, I'm not a fan of RB but it's always good to get the facts straight.

GLA.

I have no idea of PMO's plans other than they have previously stated they would drill another well on Solan in 2020.

Personally I just can't see HUR getting involved with Solan. There is 600k of subsea storage I suppose and some of that could be viewed as going spare in light of the dismal performance of the Solan wells thus far but I just don't see it happening.

GLA.

I think Solan is a red herring.

All the activity is more than likely related to the production well PMO are drilling at Solan in early 2020.

They only have one well producing (5k bopd) at the moment. The second well was a duffer. They are planning to drill another well to replace this and hopefully add another 5k bopd to Solan production. Still way down on the 20-25k bopd they had originally planned for and probably rates as one of the worst UK off shore projects of all time, having cost getting on for $2.8B.

Still it makes the AM look a veritable bargain.

GLA.

Technip even.....

Technic bill is small beer and has been paid anyway.