Member Info for Biffadog

So here are some important statements from the company themselves.

“Notwithstanding the instant communication between the two wells, and that the wells are effectively ac??ting as a single well bore, the bottom hole pressure response observed to date gives the Company sufficient confidence to reiterate 2020 guidance of 20,000 barrels of oil per day, before operational down??time.” (HUR TOU 13th Dec).

So it would appear that HUR are not concerned about the AM’s ability to handle the associated water to produce 20k bopd (18k bopd net) of oil throughout 2020. I also note that you have not provided any concrete information on how the water produced is handled by the AM and what the handling capacities actually are, before casting dispersion on it’s ability to cope with an increased water cut (if that were indeed to happen). It’s worth noting that some of the older North Sea operations have a water cut in the range of 60-80%. The idea that HUR are trying to hide the water cut by using a different terminal to Rotterdam is frankly ludicrous, especially given that they have just given the most recent water/oil production figures in the December TOU.

“The Company is confident that the water cut observed is related to perched/stranded water, based on temperature data, lack of rate-dependency, and water production behaviour after shut-in periods.” (HUR TOU 13th Dec).

HUR have given concrete reasons why they believe the water is perched and you either believe the company is telling the truth or you think that the company is lying (worst case) or deliberately choosing to mislead investors (nearly as bad). If you think the BOD is lying then it’s probably time to sell up and move on.

Perched/stranded water will vary from time to time over the life cycle of each well by it’s very nature (trapped pockets of water in a fissure). For anybody wanting more detailed information on this, the 11th July CMD on HUR’s website covers this subject in depth and explains why the company does “not expect to see coned aquifer water during the lifetime of the EPS”.

Having said the the water cut on 7z has risen from 7.5% to 25-30% since FOIL and any increase in water cut is not a good. In an ideal world, the water cut would be zero but as long as it is not from the aquifer and does not substantially increase, then an aggregate water cut of 15% is doing no harm whatsoever and that’s where we are at this moment in time.

The CMD on the 25th March 2020 is a very important day indeed.

On to the finances and paying back the Convertible Bonds ($230M) by 24th July 2022, I’m not sure why you feel HUR have a problem here. Year end there is $150M unrestricted cash and assuming $60 oil and 18k bopd (net), HUR will generate a further $262M p.a or just over $400M before the 24th July 2020. On that basis, there is plenty of free cash available to pay down the CBs leaving $320M to fund the Capex as outlined in the current plan. This is obviously on the proviso that the EPS continues to perform, but I covered that off at the beginning of my post and if you don’t believe that will happen, I’m surprised you have bothered to read this far.

It worth noting that at this point in time Kerogen have not sold down further after covering their position on HUR with the 17th July 2019 sale of approximately 25% of their holding. They have been eligible to sell further shares since mid November. Going forward it will be telling if they sell further shares but at this moment in time they have not done so.

As for Spirit being “taken to the cleaners, professionally”, I’m not entirely sure what you mean. Are you suggesting the HUR board lied to Spirit because that’s what it sounds like. Spirit will have had access to the full facts and made a decision to farm-in to HUR on that basis. There are no guarantees in the oil business. However, it looked like a good deal for Spirit given the potential reward balanced against the initial financial commitment on their part. Don’t forget they have come up trumps with Lincoln even if Warwick disappointed.

Hopefully my post will provide food for thought and I hope it will also provide some balance to dspp’s rather bleak view of HUR’s position. Only time will tell but I don’t think things are as bad as he would have you believe.

I think that covers everything but for the avoidance of any doubt, all opinions are my own and should not be taken as investment advice.

TTFN
Biffadog

Correction: 8% average water cut across the two wells (not 16% as stated).

My belief is that one well is a dry oil well and the other has been producing a 16% water cut but that is only my opinion.

Perched or stranded water will vary throughout the life cycle of the EPS by its very nature. Stranded pockets of water randomly dotted around the FB reservoir.

Apologies for the misleading 16% total water cut figure.

Now I am really out of this mad house.

GLA.

Morning All,

Seeing as the onslaught of negative posts has subsided somewhat, now would seem as good a time as any to put the coned water (water produced from the aquifer as opposed to perched or stranded water) rumour started by dspp to bed once and for all.

I know he's a messiah to many on here but that doesn't mean everything he posts is the bloody gospel. I've noticed more than a few errors or false assumptions in his previous posts over the years. How many of you have even met the guy ?

Firstly, his workings on percentage of water cut were plain wrong and misleading.

He took volume of water and divided by volume of oil to give a percentage of total water cut.

Wrong. The correct figure comes from dividing volume of water by the sum of volume of water and oil.

dspp used the latest OGA figures and did not have any additional information to base his theory. These figures show that the average water cut was around 16% across two wells but did not give any insight into the source of the water or the split between the two wells, so absolutely no base for the coned water theory.

Why everybody is doubting the following statement from HUR issued as part of the 20th September Half Year Results, I do not know.

"We have gone to great lengths to explain why we do not expect to see coned aquifer water during the lifetime of the EPS, under our base case. This is our continuing expectation. The perched, or stranded, water we have experienced is consistent with our reservoir model and since our capital markets day presentation this interpretation has been reinforced by the Company's technical work. Notwithstanding the increase in aggregate perched water production to a sustained rate of approximately 7.5%, water cut remains within expected ranges and is not impacting oil production levels or the cost of production."

In addition, HUR have categorically stated that if there was a significant change to the performance of the EPS (aquifer water break through would certainly be classified as significant) they would issue an RNS. No RNS has been forthcoming.

I look forward to seeing dspp and the many others that have been actively promoting the water coning propaganda with egg on their faces very shortly.

The level of misleading information on here of late and the constant slamming of this share by the likes of bartlebobton, EV, TDG is obscene.

Having said that it's down to the individual to decide whether HUR is finished as a company, as these posters would have you believe.

I'm out of here as can no longer be bothered to post given the toxic nature of this board. It's a shame as it used to be a great place to exchange information and views.

GLA.

The tie-back is going to be to the Lincoln Crestal well. Expect some news on this front very shortly.

Not sure what your point is but you obviously don’t buy into the huge potential of the GWA acreage.

Fair enough but the facts and majority opinion would appear to be stacked against you.

GLA.

EV,

I can't see any reason why a company would buy Spirit without the express aim of getting actively involved in FB WOS.

HUR are the operator on GWA. They call the shots on development of the GWA area until FFD FID is taken.

Any company buying into Spirit will inherit legal obligations to develop GWA according to the deal Spirit and HUR signed and the OGA will also make sure that this happens regardless.

As it stands, HUR's cash flow is produced by GLA, so any funds required to develop GWA are independent of that programme.

You've been pushing the idea that WW is a duffer for quite a few weeks now, aren't you going to look like a right cretin when it comes up trumps ??

GLA.

The first thing to remember is that Spirit are autonomous to Centrica, and as such the funds are there to develop GWA as per the plan HUR have jointly outlined with Spirit.

So the base case is covered and without a buyer for Spirit the GWA development will go ahead.

Having said that, I can see no downside to a well financed major buying Spirit to get a foot in the door in the Rona Ridge WOS FB play.

It could lead to participation opening up GLA too.

Personally, I can't see any negative aspects to Spirit being sold off to reduce Centrica's significant debt pile, far from it.

GLA.

JoeBass,

What a pathetic whining individual you are.

I went to the SOC presentation last night along with at least 3 other HUR shareholders. I know this to be a fact as I shared drinks beforehand and then 3 of us went for dinner afterwards.

To get my ticket, I joined up with the SOC, paid my £40 membership fee and put in for a ticket weeks ago.

The talk by RT was on Lancaster and the Lancaster EPS. It was well presented and fairly concise compared to the recent CMD (I don't suppose you had the attention span to watch that anyway, but take my word for it) and there was no new information.

That's why there is no new slide pack or information on the website.

You haven't missed out on anything, except for having the benefit of seeing RT's presentation and talking to RT afterward.

He did a great job on the presentation front (much better than the CMD) and I think everybody came away feeling pretty good about HUR's prospects.

So, stop whining and if you are that bloody interested, get off your ass and go along yourself next time.

GLA.

If HUR find a bit more oil at Warwick, over and above what is already common knowledge (Lincoln and Lancaster), there is absolutely no need to keep it quiet until after the GE.

Firstly, it would be against AIM rules and secondly, another 500M barrels at WW matters not, as the known resources WOS are already in the 10s of Billion barrels (BP's Clair and Schiehallon for starters), so another 500M barrels doesn't really change the greater picture.

GLA.

The presentation was way over subscribed, so SOC put forward the idea to HUR that it might be possible to live stream it.

HUR obviously saw this as a decent PR opportunity (yes, I know) and agreed.

HUR have come a long way and the EPS is chugging along rather nicely by all accounts.

However, anybody expecting anything other than a general update on the EPS will be disappointed.

HUR have already said that the next detailed update will be given at the CMD in Q1 2020.

I agree that it is a good opportunity to "observe his general demeanour" and I'd be surprised if he's anything other than pretty upbeat about things as they stand.

Just don't expect any significant news on the WW drill, or anything that might even get close to being RNS material, or you will be disappointed.

Looking forward to meeting a few of you later before and after the presentation. You know who you are !!!

GLA.

Not sure what all the talk of "interviews" and "press conferences" is about.

There are no interviews or press conferences scheduled.

Simply put, RT is delivering a talk on the Lancaster field. It will be quite scientific and its primary aim is to inform on FB and the Lancaster EPS.

He does these talks quite regularly.

There will be NO content relating to the WW drill and no new news regarding HUR. Those expecting anything other than that described below will be disappointed. For those that want to learn more about FB, it's a great opportunity to hear it first hand from the man himself.

See below for a summary of the presentation.

Title
Progress in delivering the UK’s next super-giant oil field
Synopsis
Since turning the taps on at Lancaster, in May 2019, Hurricane has produced and sold over 2 million barrels of oil. Against an initial back drop of significant industry scepticism, Hurricane has progressively de-risked Lancaster to the point where the UK’s first basement reservoir field is on target to be producing over 17,000 barrels of oil per day during 2020, from a two well development.
Robert will share examples of some of the technical challenges, commercial solutions and geological insights that have underpinned the progress made with Lancaster to date and reflect on the challenges that need to be met to deliver the UK’s next super giant oil field.

Enjoy.....

EV,

We all pretty know the WW drill results are going to be good and don't need twats like you to try and appear to be in the know at the last minute.

I say this because there has been a very large flare photographed, viewed and accurately reported on from the TOL.

Even more importantly, the time period between the first time the flow was stopped (no flare) and the flare reappearing was on par with the time mentioned by RT it took one of the Lancaster EPS wells to fully "recharge" itself in the test period prior to FOIL.

That's normally the first test that they do. Flow the well, shut it back in and see how long it takes to restore itself to "factory setting" i.e the pressure it was prior to testing. The quicker it takes, the better the quality of the source.

The SOC are irrelevant to when and what HUR announce. You show yourself up once again to even suggest that they are part of the equation and would want to be so.

All down the line you have been saying that WW is a duster. Please don't try and salvage some dignity and kudos on the eve of a positive WW result, as it only makes you look like an even bigger twat than you are already.

As for the "attendees might be disruptive" comment with reference to the SOC presentation, yet another idiot emerges this evening. The SOC are bothered about disruption from XR and the like. They had a problem recently on that front at a similar O&G event.

Looking forward to the presentation and at least one thing is for sure, the muppets on here will not be in attendance.

Lastly, one of the positive things about this LSE BB is the lack of rampers. It would be a piece of **** to ramp this stock given all the positive info/facts available and yet somehow restraint is shown. Very unusual.

GLA.

Title
"Progress in delivering the UK’s next super-giant oil field"

Synopsis
Since turning the taps on at Lancaster, in May 2019, Hurricane has produced and sold over 2 million barrels of oil. Against an initial back drop of significant industry scepticism, Hurricane has progressively de-risked Lancaster to the point where the UK’s first basement reservoir field is on target to be producing over 17,000 barrels of oil per day during 2020, from a two well development.
Robert will share examples of some of the technical challenges, commercial solutions and geological insights that have underpinned the progress made with Lancaster to date and reflect on the challenges that need to be met to deliver the UK’s next super giant oil field.

Hope that clarifies that. Looking forward to attending the presentation tomorrow.

GLA.

It was that cretin Emptyvessel who was waxing lyrical about I3E.

"When the dust settles and I3E comes in tomorrow ping me a message and I will let you know how much ive (sic) made in the last week on I3E alone, I even bought in on the drop today, balls of steel". (Emptyvessel on 25Nov at 19:31)

The same Emptyvessel that has been suggesting WW is going to be a duster for the last few weeks.

Total cretin or fantasy trading Walter Mitty type.....you choose.

GLA.

You guys are making way too much of it, 45p is just a resistance level.

It looks like it has now broken. Relax.

With a huge great flare and DST shutting down the flow and reopening it several times over the past few days, the WW drill result is pretty obviously good.

Just a question of oil type, exact flow rates and is Warwick connected to Lincoln. Suspect all will be clear by Thursday morning at the very latest.

GLA.

HUR are the Operator on GWA.

Ultimately, it is their decision when the RNS is released.

The RNS will be released when it is good and ready.

There is no reason to delay such an RNS and indeed HUR are required by AIM regulations to relate any information that could influence the SP, as soon as it is ready.

Patience chaps....

GLA.

CA's base holding has remained pretty constant at around 5.5% for months now. Any change of more than 0.5% either way, would warrant a TR-1.

If Kerogen were selling it would more than likely be by via an accelerated bookbuild offering by Morgan Stanley and Stifel. They are not just going to try and drift a few shares into the market on the back of a successful result RNS at WW.

A successful result at WW, following on from the success at Lincoln, backed up by a positive update on the EPS at the CMD in January, will pretty much underwrite the long term investment case for HUR.

I doubt that either Kerogen or CA will be looking to sell large chunks of their holding with the winning line in clear sight but that is only my opinion.

FWIW Both have covered their initial stake and are on a free ride anyway.

GLA.

Have a plan and stick to it.

Ignore the noise.

GLA.

I've just taken the following paragraph from HUR's interim report (produced on the 20th September 2019), as I think it tells you all you need to know about the water cut (perched water) and coning at this stage in the proceedings. There is a huge difference between perched water and water originating from the aquifer but I'm sure most on here are well aware of that.

The water cut from perched water was expected, is of no concern at these levels and will vary (up and down) during the lifetime of the EPS. It's worth highlighting that HUR do not expect to see any coned aquifer water during the lifetime of the EPS.

"We have gone to great lengths to explain why we do not expect to see coned aquifer water during the lifetime of the EPS, under our base case. This is our continuing expectation. The perched, or stranded, water we have experienced is consistent with our reservoir model and since our capital markets day presentation this interpretation has been reinforced by the Company’s technical work. Notwithstanding the increase in aggregate perched water production to a sustained rate of approximately 7.5%, water cut remains within expected ranges and is not impacting oil production levels or the cost of production."

It will be good to get an update in the CMD in January 2020.

GLA.

http://mobile.twitter.com/RalphEhoff/status/1197785812596936704?s=19