Scary at first sight8 May 2024 11:01
But some green shoots springing up
Well there was one surprise that I wasn't expecting in the results and that was the size of the exceptional items! That and a £20m increase in deprecation led to a massive loss number
Revenue was impacted by Debenhams as I said it would be. It's not just the commission cost, it's the opportunity foregone for the other brands where marketing spend drives a far higher £ return. The reduction in revenue on labels seems to have hit a maximum reduction and now and core brands seem to be gaining momentum. There is a caution however, in that the reduction from 9% to 4% may be a mix of slightly softer comparators and improving momentum. I've not had time to look closely enough yet.
It's great to see GMV being quoted and it helps to show the massive growth curve Debenhams is going through. I still hope to see a partial spin off in the next couple of years.
The business seems to be operating far more efficiently now and still further cost savings to be made. I'm a little concerned that margin is down in half two but that is likely due to the US DC.
Liquidity I don't think is a concern at the moment but it could become so. £230m remains of the RCF, reducing to £165m at some point next summer. It is quite possible there will be another cash outflow this year, although I hope not, by about £30-40m.
EBITDA has remained broadly flat and at an operating level the business is just about washing its face.
I hope all of the restructuring costs have now been accounted for, other than the USDC and it seems likely to me.
It seems that the UK market is gaining confidence, the focus on the core brands seems to be the right strategy, especially Debenhams. But it is still highly competitive out there.
It seems to me that the bottom may well be in but Q1 results are now very important
I've posted a few times that this is the last set of results that COVID can be used as an explanation.
It's still all to play for and you either believe in the strategy or not. If you do, the potential upside is hundreds of percent, if you don't sell up
Imho, dyor
It's too early to judge performance of the US
Other than that,