RE: Forecast30 May 2024 10:33
The outlook stated explicitly GMV growth and positive FCF this year. I don't see how they achieve both of those things without either a decent revenue or margin increase, even after a substantial drop in capex.
Looking at the year end accounts, labels accounted for just about half of the revenue drop in the first half and across the year. So it my well be, for comparative purposes label sales have dropped to a sustainable run rate. Brands accounted for half the fall in revenue in the first half but only a third axcross the year (before market place effect) So it seems there are grounds for optimism here. Increase in market place as a percentage of sales caused the remainder of the drop across the year (over 20%) and this is likely to be a bigger impact this year. So it may well be that margin improves more than revenue, although with better targeted marketing on just the brands i'd hope for both to grow.
You keep referring to a growing market. The market last year was at best flat in volume terms and only grew in value due to inflation, which Boo chose not to pass on. Whether this was a good strategic decision, poor pricing choice or a changed market dynamic remains to be seen imo. Hence first half results being important.
WRT website views, the last couple of months are the only time i can recall BOO as a group looking like a stand out performer, especially Debenhams.