Member Info for bewareshadows

Yeh but half the market cap, with a similar yeild.

I'm in the process of moving it all over to ISA's. So moving some of it today. I've been in various funds over the years although I find it harder to spot value in a fund as they are so varied. Best one I invested in was a Russian fund, when oil collapsed and sanctions hit Russia I jumped into the Russian fund and after 6 months it started to fly. But that was an easy hit as the market had over reacted massively on the effect that sanctions would have on Russia. Currently in an Indian fund which is very volatile. 20% up to 6% down. Japanese fund has done well over the last 2 years. I was in woodford, but I've lost confidence in him recently. I think he definitely as an eye for new companies but his investments in long standing companies seems to be a bit shaky at the moment. I also like tracker funds but no invested in any at the moment.

Got to agree, set your targets and stick to them. I'm now at break even on my long term investment in Petrofac. Does that mean I sell when it rises another 5%??? No, I can still see this hitting 700 in 3 years and at the moment nothing makes me doubt this. Sure I could sell and try to find another investment, but there is no saying that won't crash as soon as I invest. I was in Capita last year and was incredibly lucky. Made a quick 20% and then sold out to invest in PFC. If I had held Capita I would have lost 60% or more. Same if I had invested in PFC pre the SFO announcement. Tomorrow they could announce a multi billion pound RNS or a takeover. Alternatively the SFO could hit like a tonne of bricks and I've back to chasing breakeven. I try to diversify so I'm not all in on PFC, there are other share I hold and most of my capital is in funds. The alternative is currently 1.5% in a bank ISA. No competition really.

Depends if you need the cash? Depends on what your target is?

Hi ifonly1, It depends on whether I'm investing or trading. For investments I tend to just let it ride. However, in this particular share I invested at a relatively high level. 660p. I have confidence that it would have returned to that sp eventually and I would pick up 4‰, dividends on the way. However the drop to 400 and some floating cash meant I had the opportunity to trade a little. The difficulty is trying to find a bottom of the curve. So with this bouncing between 480 and 530 I try to jump in and out quickly. Mainly I'm looking for no news days with a low sp and a low oil price. A drop that follows the market. Then I will set a sell limit that seems reasonable and not too greedy. 2%. This share can move 2% in a day easily. My aim is to lower my average on my long term investment. So I'm down to 544. In short yes I use sell limits, but if it is teasing that limit but not touching it I will settle for 1.5 - 1.8%. Did that today and overrided the sell limit to take the cash. The money will sit now waiting for another low sp. If it does not come great that means my investment is going well and I can start to look elsewhere for value. I'm not a pro and have lost more than I have made, but learning from my mistakes all the time. Biggest loss was rbs, biggest missed opportunity glencore and selling everything for a 30% rise and I could have got +300%. Still it's only money.

I maybe wrong but not sure you can short banks

To be fair shorting has a place in the great scheme of things and they do not always win. Personally I would never short as I just can't afford it. Losses on a long position are limited to what you invest. Losses on a short position are technically unlimited as some people have found out to their cost in the past when the SP's have unexpectedly jumped. By my calculations the 6% declared short positions are equivalent to 6 days worth of volume, but all on the buy side. No idea what their averages are, but when they do cash in that is a substantial amount of increase in the SP that is built in. So long as the company does not do anything daft, these shorts are going to have to close at some point.

Blackrock reduced on Tuesday. Now down to 6.04% declared. Some of these shorts must be at very high averages as they can afford to sit on the short whilst the share price climbs.

Guess they must like the annual report. Like the front picture of an oil refinery but not sure i would like to live next to one!. That did make me giggle. I should have held a bit longer, traded some in for a short term gain at 524 should have waited and got 530. Well profit is profit

No major surprises in the report. Seems to be very clear open and Frank account of the year.

The pound is actually near enough where it was verses the dollar pre referendum. 6th April 2016 1.408 5th April 2018 1.405 The big opportunity would be for EU firms but I'm not sure who would be the likely candidate. Im not saying a takeover is impossible, but if it was going to happen I would have thought low oil of 35-40p would have been the time.

I just don't buy a take over. It seems more like a wish than having any solid news behind it.

Probably more likely to jump after the payment of the dividend as people reinvest the dividend. Not sure many people rush to fill their isa on day one and even if they do, there is no saying it will be to top up pfc. The price has to be right. Hence when it dropped to 507 yesterday a huge buy dropped in. Not me but I added a few at the same level.

Decent news for the oil price today with inventories falling.

And did it without any impact on the sp. Kinda makes sense the have just merged with Aberdeen asset management, so may have been more concentrated in their holdings than they wished. So sell whilst the going is good.

Did not think I'd get another opportunity at sub 510 for a while. Snaffled a few more

Getting tempting again. Oil report due this afternoon

Seems to be very much tied into the oil price. I agree 600 by year end seems a fair price, but there are so many factors in play its really hard to call. Trump certainly is not helping matters.

Although to be fair if those 500m of contracts cover the dividend that is a plus for me as every time they announce another contract that is money in the bank surely. I agree 1.6% is not ideal, but all oil support firms had to take a hit when the oil price fell. I'd hope and expect that in a range of 65-70 a barrel that 1.6% should increase. To me a steady price of oil in that 65-70 range should help boost both the cash in hand and reduce that debt.

Feels a little bit like it is holding steady on this share at the moment. Eoy results where decent, but it feels like the lift from the low 400's has come to a stop. Shorters too seem to be waiting, not wanting to load up more before dividend day. Im fine with this bouncing around the 530-550 range for a bit. A big rise needs news not speculation behind it to make it sustainable. I'll reinvent the dividend when it comes.