RE: Guesstimate??2 Nov 2022 09:00
TakeStock,
It may not have been Scancell's decision to make - Genmab may have insisted on confidentiality. I honestly don't think you can make any judgement calls about the size of the upfront payment based on the fact that it hasn't been disclosed. However, the early preclinical stage of the deal does give some indication and whilst I don't agree the amount is negligible, I think we probably do all agree that a single upfront payment is unlikely to meet all of Scancell's funding needs given the ongoing level of development at Scancell.
So that brings us to the timing of the milestone payments attached to this deal. Obviously Scancell have no control over how quickly Genamab will develop this mAb or how many resources they'll allocate and we don't know the milestone triggers,. Just to give some indication, I have listed early trigger points for milestone payments for other bios with preclinical licensing deals that I have been invested in over the years.
1) Selection of a defined product for clinical development -
2) FDA clearance of an IND
3) Commencement of phase I trials
4) Completion of phase I trials
There's also the potential for new deals on other mAbs or Covidity, but IMO it's impossible for any of us to make any sort of informed judgement call on the timing. We also shouldn't forget that Scancell have themselves licensed in tech. including Amplivant for Moditope and it may be that as the Modi1 trial progresses they will themselves have to pay milestones to Isa Pharmaceuticals.
So it's possible that Scancell will carry out another funding round at some stage over the next couple of years, but that's part and parcel of biotech investing and we have seen the tremendous difference that funding from Vulpes and Redmile has made to Scancell. If the Moditope trial continues as it has started and with a Genmab deal in the bag, this will be an opportunity to bring in other specialist funds and to broaden their base of institutional holders. Hopefully Scancell wil clarify the position at the AGM.