Member Info for BenAlder

What does Mustangs abandoning of its long held interest in aquiring Cellcube tell us about the VRFB market?

Too small. Too expensive to crack and future competition from China a threat. Unless Western Govts subsidies this tech, it only going to be niche. A few hundred tons a year, outside of China. Maybe too early yet, but by the time that demand comes, it'll be another cheaper technology.

Lets see how well our new e plant (or elephant) is utilised next year. I'll go

That leaves Garnett to make a low ball offer.

I've a target of 5 - 6p here but I cant bring myself to buy another BMN share again. Painful lesson. I wince when I click on the shortcut 'BMN', trained like one of Pavlov's dogs over the last 5 years. Burn the past and rename it.

When are they switching on the battery. Think FM is still going to the ribbon day?

After 3years of high sustaining capex spend, I'd expect that they will get stability in production and improved costs by 2025. SPR might inject the cash to re-build kiln 1 in 2024 to add another 1000Tpa in 2025. At 5500Tpa they should be making a profit with a V price of around $30kg. A nice run on the V price and profits could rise dramatically.

Same old story, but new characters. I'm still not sure if SPR are friend or foe, but can only see things improving from 2024. CC is a seasoned professional and is delivering his remit, albeit ruthlessly. Plenty of news flow coming to keep the interest going. Coms a breath of fresh air.

It is a fresh start on a decent foundation. Should they consider a name change? lol.

This and sale of BE/cellcube et-al will just about clear the debt and get thru next year. Money is not for growth, its for stability/reliability at both plants, and Vanchems/BMNs debt. A clean slate.

Wait until next year, and you will feel that dilution.

Vanchem is going private eventually imo. After we help re-build it.

Nice sentiment, but probably stay near 3p until Orion conversion price is announced. Never know, they could leave it at 6p happy with the changes. Expecting a rerate to whatever it is. Then its more likely to hang around that level until clarity on cost savings made and future production rate.

Sale of Cellcube. Dont think Craigs fortee is negotiating, but my target would be close to $20m. Help reduce remaining debt drag after Orion. Another rise in sp.

Metals at a low and expected to rise. China experiencing its first Western style financial crisis. Maybe another tough year ahead. Still all that re-building, arms production, etc, to happen at some stage and feed into V prices. Maybe an odd VRFB here and there too.

'diluted into oblivion' - lol!!!!!

Just like 'if' FM had delivered the 5400T-8000T pa?

If FAR gets funded, due in Q1 2024, it could be worth a punt. No worse than this mess. Not a recomendation, but it is on my watch list.

BMN and Largo is showing why there are not many primary producers around. Why Vanchem was run down and sold. IF built FAR would survive in any price scenario. A better long term bet, if it happens and if there is a such a thing as a long term hold on AIM these days.

@marc001 - You are playing the long game here. Have you considered FAR? If it gets built, it will have better profitability than BMN will ever have.

Shell

Actually, if he is adding 24.4% to take a total of 30% that would be

32.1/0.244 = 131.5M euros x 0.86 = £113M

Seamus's 30% values the company at £92M. FWIW.

In The Times 7th and Sunday Times 8th, but need sub to read it. Headlines..

Oct 7, 2023 · Seamus Mulligan’s Nerano Pharma is poised to take a sizeable stake in AIM-listed Advanced Oncotherapy as part of a complex financial restructuring plan.

Oct 8, 2023 · Seamus Mulligan’s Nerano Poised To Exchange €32.1m In Loans For A 30% Stake In Advanced Oncotherapy

Currently holds 5.6%

I wondered about the management fee but couldnt see any mention of it. I assumed that if they were managing some activities that they would be covered for those expenses, but I doubt that there is enough excess in that fee to cover the entire costs of the company.

Yes, I heard JE say that was his intentions, and I take that in good faith, but I'm too wary to assume it will happen that way. You dont always get what you want - to quote a song. They dont have enough leverage yet to attract generous deal terms, imo. That could come after more drilling results. And JE did negotiate the last dismal deal. He has yet to prove himself in this role though I like what he says and his move to reduce costs by reducing wages.

Achieving some sort of agreement will be the first step and that is the positive I'm looking for. It will add light to the funding situation and RE's abilities to negotiate.

SharketMare - I think it would start a bidding war. But if no bids try something else. Offer 90% - 95% for $500M keeping a free carry to production, or shelve it, fund raise and drill elsewhere. They are in limbo now. Govt will pressure them to start. If they go with any joint venture, PIs share in it will be far less when the dogs take their share.

Its ironic. Every explorer dreams of a catch like this, but they cant land this whale by themselves. Everybody knows it and have time on their side, watching. Solgold need to start the ball rolling themselves. Take what they can and find another fish. Otherwise they will swamp the boat and lose it all to the salvagers.

As JAY is still looking for a potential mine they may as well persue all avenues to find one worth focusing on. Try and farm out all of their projects and take whatever finance is going. They need to strike gold, metaphorically, and create some excitement and value ASAP.

I am less optimistic that these partners will do the drilling and pay money to finance JAYs business. Kobold and Rio-Tinto did not give any cash, just a commitment to spend a certain amount on drilling the project. I'm expecting a similar arrangement again.

I think they will have to raise cash early next year to pay the bills for 2024/25. Good news first. I hope.

Strategic Review Process outcome. Put the for sale sign up on Cascabel and advertise it at offers over $750M. Thats 20p or so. See what happens. Avoid this bleeding to death. Jobs for the boys. Rinse and repeat.

A cashed up explorer with good projects to explore could be worth more than Solg is now with this albatross around its neck.

They could find and build another mine by the time this is sorted out, and I bet its eventually sold at around that price too!

Thankyou Ashton, you are very generous in response to my slightly flippant dismisal of Disko. We live in hope. I should of said uneconomical instead of small. My concern is the length of time it is going to take to achive that understanding and the funding required from JAY to deliver it. Will Kobold keep funding it, reducing JAYs holding bit by bit? What share will be left for PIs? Its a moot point as any significant discovery should raise the SP, but I am reminded of SOLG's problem in realising value from their huge asset.

I think the company needs to push on with the more accessable tenements in Finland in any case. I imagine they would be easier to raise finance on with partners and quicker to execute and generate news.

This sp is a real opportunity, but the fact is JAY is cash strapped and reliant on others, time is running out. They need something soon. RE seems to have a plan and I'm hopeful it will get this moving north again.

Dundas should be a lesson/warning with regard to all the Greenland prospects. It would have to be huge to suceed to production. Very expensive place to mine. I'm still perplexed how more drilling undermined that projects success when they had a FPS? Anyway new start.

Kobold will do their thing next year and JAY will probably not get results back until early 2025. That will then determine Kobold's next action and future of Disko. It will be drawn out to get a resource. A very long road to production. I would not place all my money on it. It may be too small like Dundas is.

I think the next big thing will be financing announced for the Finnish interests. That is certainly what is being referenced latterly imo. Boss is clearly excited. More realistic in terms of of advancing the company quickly. I'm quietly hopeful but admit I'm a bit ignorant of these two properties as yet.

Its a punt, but thats par for explorers. GLA!

But I suspect that was arranged through Wogan, who were taking 7.5% commission off of BMN, and probably the other side too, ..so cancelled out really. May save a lot when SPR take over sales in 2025?. Depends what they take. 0%?