Member Info for BenAlder

"we must first get smaller to get bigger"

I didnt suffer 5 years of the effects of buying and doing up Vanchem on the SP for them to give half of it away with the Mokopane sale! It is the fact that now we will only get half of any future growth in Vanchem. ie half our future profits are gone. I realise we were not in a strong position, but dilution via new BMN shares rather than our future cash cow company seems preferable, even at this sp.

Is the s l a g for life deal free? How long before our partners are producing?

BMN Saved! My first reaction was 'good deal'. Craig has raised cash and is re-building Kiln 1 as I suggested but BMN will only own/earn about 62% of the overall profits now. (50% Vanchem 74% Vametco). Not sure I like this in the long term now. Need to look at the numbers again.

I think this share has given me concussion with the kicking its given me. I'm more cynical, skeptical and impatient. Disappointed. You may have noticed. I was not looking for a long term hold. Greed and faith were my sins. I still think this will come good if stuck in a bottom drawer. Chancers buying in at this price cant fail to make a bob or two, but risk getting locked in like most of us here, for longer than they would of liked.

I'm waiting for a bright ray of sunshine so I can put my rose tinted glasses back on, like coffeecups, and rejoin the ultras. Maybe the shades I'm wearing are a bit dark, but my thoughts are sincere with either pair on.

On a cheerier note - Could alloys be the next big thing like steel was? When will the inevitable arms and infrastructure rebuilding start that will lead to this spike we are waiting on?

"so it was just a case,of cost effectiveness,we went for the cheap,available alternative."

And we will again. The cost of change is enormous, and so is the amount of resources and energy required to build it all. Which ever way it goes, we will be paying the cost through our bills for years to come. eg Price of elec was not high enough to attract a single bidder for a UK offshore wind farm contract auction the other day.

Ironically coal, gas and oil could live on if CO2 scrubbers arrive soon. US & UK Govts are investing heavily in research. Many countries have access to these resources already, and all to some extent, have the existing infrastructure. It is a low cost solution and is relatively quick to implement. It would allow developing countries to build their way in to a carbon free future as China has done and Saudi is going to do.

It is also ironic that China is the biggest user of coal in the world, but has installed more wind, solar and batteries then anyone else. The Saudi's are using their vast oil wealth to build large scale solar and batteries too. But these are two rich men whose country's have large vanadium resources as a by-product. And probably the only two countries that might meet their emission targets on time.

The voting/tax paying people of the world will have to share the costs where they are, and you can only milk a cow so much. So I think its going to take a decade or two for the West to achieve the same as these guys, or make the changes needed to curb emissions fast enough to stop the 2 degrees C rise. Germany has already caved and delayed its gas boiler ban, UK will too. EV's next. Also why I dont see the same rate of take up of VFRBs in the West before it is eclipsed by a cheaper alternative or change of direction.

I'm just musing, I'll say no more on VRFBs or heat-pumps. The future rarely turns out as we see it, there's always a curve ball. But it is 'all about the money'.

@tekanalyst - Were you asking, because this I know.

a) Its the damp. Penetrates. Finland is colder but drier. Hotter and drier in Summer too.

b) Finish houses are better desinged, built and insulated so better suited. They are also wealthier and have been eco concious for longer than us.

c) And Faramog gave you another reason.

You thinking of buying one? Plenty of buyers remorse coming to light from people that have installed them in England.

Another guy ramping his shares. WTKDHK? Stop looking to support your biased view with opinions. Its not research, letting others do your thinking.

Sorry Codie, too much sun, hic.

TBH. My only focus is production volume and Vprice. And spending plans. Waiting on Craig's plans.

Codejunkie, I'm a grumpy old man ATM. Fed up with DYOR. Entrenched in my current thinking, Cant be @rsed, back to living in a bubble, relying on the BB to inform me, but it sounds interesting. Can you summise it for me/others? Has it started, When is it ready? Definitely 100% happening?

Chris, Not easy getting rich quick, that's luck, but we will keep on trying.

ATB!

Sorry for the Heat-pump rant.

After China has taken care of its national needs, then they will turn to the World Market with the cheapest priced electrolyte and batteries too.

Outside of China, I think cost is still a big inhibiter to uptake. I said 5yrs ago that maybe we were too early for the revolution, but we are still waiting for signs of the promised uptake now. All the talk about VRFB growth is by people promoting them in response to the need of long term storage capacity. It is still not a given what that preferred tech will be. A mix we assume.

There is a risk that support grows with help from big multinational companies (Think Shell, BP, Siemens, NG etc) and politicians, for other tech even if less efficient or suitable, but is being pushed nevertheless. (Like heatpumps for UK homes. Going to fail on price alone, never mind their inability to cope with the changeable Scottish weather).

Or when CO2 scrubber systems are invented for industrial use, that can be retrofitted into fossil fuel burning plants, producing by-products for fuel and plastics, thereby reducing oil exploitation and a need for as many batteries. Could happen soon.

Why hasn't any big multinational company or a Govt backed VFRBs with big investments or subsidies? IDC Bank with BMN for the e-plant is small fry cost wise. I am talking about the amounts the Chinese have invested so as to be able to build VRFB's at scale. Largo is even trying to offload their e-plant they are building.

Until I see that happening, I think its just a niche market for companies like IES and Cellcube, supplying a few small units a year. Not impacting demand as forecasted by the experts. BWTFDIK.

I don't worry in any case, because I believe BMN will sell all it can process for steel and alloys. If they are right I make some money.

The AI does that if it has censored your post.

I suspect we may have the board to thank for FM's departure (and nothing to do with Orion as has been suggested elsewhere), particularly Mr Kirkwood, after he became chairman. Two or three of the NEDs are fairly new in the door. The CFO does not inspire confidence AFAIC, but the boss is new and talks a good game. Lets see if he can do the walk.

Beware the Long time lurker here. He sounds familiar. Vandidium, lol.

While I'm not expecting it, I'm sure the Chinese would be interested in buying BMN, if not just for the iron ore. And in the current political climate, Western interest would be there too. Need to replace reliance on Russian and Chinese supply of vanadium.

I think BMN has been too small to be of interest up to now. Once regular profits are being made that could change.

@Phimx - Whist currently struggling, you have to recognise the value of the assets. Plants and mines and stock, mini grid etc. The company is not distressed enough for such a cheap take over. A little investment would push this into profitability within a year. Not difficult to do. Interest would be strong at that starting price. +20p at least.

A T/O approach would soon push this share to a value well above 6p and closer to its assets. Bring it on!

People love a good ramp.

A bit dramatic. If Covid never happened and they had understood the test results on the ore supplied for kiln 3, and got up to capacity after commissioning, than he may have been a hero. He never committed a crime, just failed to deliver. Let us down, but you backed him to do it, as did I. We took that risk.

Not enough orders/interest and too risky now to commit funds to? Or like BE supposedly was, screwing up your company's valuation, so need to spin it out? Or like BMN too stretched to fund it at this time?

It is starting to bother me that the growth in number of VRFB projects installed has been pretty static for the last 5 years.

Under 2p looks/is cheap, but I have some doubts that need addressing first so I will wait before adding here.

Wait for exCLN holder(s) to sell their shares first.

Wait for Orion deal to be finalised. while I think its a done deal, imagine the carnage if its delayed, modified or cancelled.

Wait for improvement to production. Currently losing money (IMO, DYOR). Need near 5000Tpa to breakeven. Plant sustaining capex (avg $9M pa the last two years) and $7M to be repaid to Orion next year if deal done. How?

Wait for an update from CC. Unfortunately for us, he needs time to assess this mess and give us the road ahead and the cost that may entail.

Wait for V price to get back above $40kg. China and Germany/EU struggling. Maybe next year.

Whist the potential is still here, long term, there are threats and uncertainty now. The business needs to transition into profits quickly. I was always confident BMN could be a very profitable business, but stated before that it looked like slipping further out all the time. It is. I feel we are back to square 1 and now they are going to need more money again to achieve that potential (again!).

It is not binary. He has the option to raise funds in order to guarantee success here. They are close now, but..

He needs to get another kiln on imo, to ensure production is at a level to make sustainable profits. Production is the key here. High fixed cost base. Any savings made will probably be required to shore up the operation. Not reliable yet.

Currently breaking even at best and even on 5000T At $40 kgV, that rate is maybe next year, it is about $20M profit. That has to pay sizable debt and capex. Not going to fund any expansion ahead for a while. If V price falls they are screwed. Only answer is further investment and expansion now or limp along and do it later while hoping the V price rises in the meantime.

I think CC's interests are more aligned to the company's future success than share holders short term pain, so I would not be surprised at a little fund raise soon. Also, the Orion deal is done deal in my book. That card has been played already so is half baked in. Won't have the legs to get past 4p on the news. We'll see. But hoping for 6p on rising production.

And I believe our exCLN holders are selling their new shares.