Member Info for BenAlder

$Cellcube = $Debt

Craigs next move. Sell that and clear the debt and the drag that is causing.

Deduct depreciation and debt repayment from EBITDA and not much left.

About $18 + $7 next year.

3-5p seems fair.

Largo not producing, ?

Market is being ultra conservative with its valuation imo. Thought it would be sitting around 30p as I can see far more up side than down which ever way this goes.

Think Glen would allow someone to finance up to 30% of the project as long as this gets financed and built, as they have already obtained the off take rights. That is their main interest here, trading metal not digging it. This is where the real money is made. And Orion already have a 2.25% royalty on the Araguaia Project. They have what they want. Both need to see it built but maybe reluctant to add more.

Plenty of interest in battery minerals so I'm sure money is there. I'm also sure they'll get a bit extra above the shares, but end result will be a producing company in a years or so's time. What mcap then?

Funny thing is I saw a video , more than 5 yrs ago, where some nickel analyst said HZM could never build a plant for $400M, their original figure, but at least double that. He was right, but the process change/upgrade is not a total surprise either. New guy has spotted something that in his experience should be changed. Changing design half way through a build is always costly but not uncommon in projects.

This will get built and there should be enough meat left on it for the PI. Best to wait if you are cautious.

My current assumptions and thoughts anyway, FWIW.

It does not destroy the company, just existing shareholders. They dont care about BMN shareholders. AT just 25% of 6p now, they are bound to amend it. 4p if really lucky. Its a repayment of a loan not a charitable donation.

Its a tier 1 asset with low production costs, half built and mostly financed/de-risked already, for a commodity of high value that there is going to be a supply deficit of in the near future. Of course they will get funding. Just a question of how much is left for the PI.

I think its more of a technicality rather than negligence etc. Probably unable to complete the 'going concern' section. Or they cant pay the auditors to sign it off, but the books are probably up to date waiting on the outcome of this situation and funding.

From USVanadium, who they (IES) signed a supply agreement with for electrolyte. USVanadium signed a supply agreement with an Indian steel co for a supply of concentrated s l a g. on top of their usual suppliers to cover this. Its on their web site.

3) New equity investment by SPR in Bushveld Minerals Limited for an amount up to US$12.5 million:

o The subscription price per share agreed with Orion in relation to its conversion of the restructured convertible loan note (as announced by Bushveld on 5 May 2023), or if lower, the price per share agreed with Orion after the date of this term sheet in relation to its future conversion of the restructured convertible loan note.

o The number of shares to be subscribed for shall not be more than 29.9% of Bushveld ordinary shares of 1 pence each in issue.

@beginermam - Stand outside the bookies tomorrow and warn the punters as they go in about the risks of gambling.

Do tell me how you get on.

And if you still dont think we have been mugged.

We gave them control of all our sales. What is their margin? Wogan used to take 7.5%. c$9Mpa. Another income stream to fund their share of the Vanchem rebuild. Shafted. Verging on criminal. FM managed to keep us going thru loss for years, I do not believe we are so close to bankruptcy. Broke but very redeemable.

I'd rather 100% dilution today with the possibility of +50p SP and a healthy dividend in the next 10yrs. You will never see a new high again and divi is halved.

As I seem to be the only one thinking this way, I'll say no more, we have to live with it.

I'm talking from the perspective of a LTH, past and future. The sp still represents good value today.

Well back to Hopium and praying to the Vanadium gods for an imminent rise in V prices and a global deficit. ATB!

We dont know the terms for the feedstock yet, its a waste product to them. Yes it is very good/significant for us but as I said before, where are they going to send it to anyway - Brazil, China or down the road?

By the time it appears, we would have been getting by. It would have been another bonus.

Could sell our share of Must and VFRB shares for $20M, Lemur $3M. This is all been so rushed and ill considered. We were on the verge of profitability. Extra production from here on produces profit. Gave it away so easily! Shareholders ignored.

I agree with you JA. Terrible deal. Should have avoided any deals regarding Vanchem. Sold our future away. Folks do not seem to understand, or probably just trying to get back to their averages and bail.

I was vocal is saying there would be financial troubles ahead, but I think they could have survived with just the Mokopane sale ($25M?), the stock pile and the Orion deal while looking for finance to build one more kiln. A £30M fund raise would have been better even if the sp is battered for a while. Perhaps things were more dire than I thought.

Now we are going to help build two kilns for our new partners use. ie add another 2000T capacity to max out over 4000Tpa, and then we only earn on the 2000T, ie what we currently have. Makes no sense. Zero advantage to shareholders. Plus they will not be responsible for funding Vametco. It is so bad I'm suspicious that CC is an inside man. Saving the company, more like asset stripping.

@broomtree - Medium term? - Is that the standard 2-5 years in the financial world or 2-5 months on AIM?

Not sure FM would have signed up to these terms. Why didn't we keep a royalty on Mokopane. How many vanadium processing plants can they ship their s l a g to?

"makes this a no-brainer at 2p assuming you're an investor rather than a trader."

Sorry if it was not aimed at me, I accepted it with humor. Declaring myself a trader(not), and being critical of the Co tend to attract a reaction.

I think we are being mugged here, although it was always going to be a tough hill to climb, we will get there just with less clothes on.

I'll take the dig cindercone. At 2p its a buy, but I'd wait for the seller to finish first. A bagger is good bet whether trader or investor.

It wont be 8000T of feedstock and not soon.

Long term BMN will only earn on 4960T out of that 8000T, assuming 4000T split between plants. Ownership 50% and 74%.

That is pretty much where we are now, if kiln 3 was producing near capacity.

I knew someone would see a silver lining.

This is not the Love boat cruise we started out on, headed down the Clyde with Captain FM at the wheel, bound for Rothesay and beyond! Its the Waverley steamer thats just announced on the tannoy that the're not going past Gourock and have put the price of the drinks up 25%. Good news is they're getting a new boiler and a supply of coal for life!

Oh look! Is that Goaty on the pier waving at us?

@CC - Woo!, then i'm in profit! I'll see how this plays out. They are not rushing to buy yet. I thought it may go this way and reduced my holding to add elsewhere, expecting to come back to avg down, may still, but its lost its luster .

I'm back to trading now, to make up for lost time. Spread it about. Plenty of baggers out there. Its trying to get the right timing and more luck than research. Win some lose some. Every shares a lesson! GL to you.

@cc - "it sets up the game for BMN to be bought out down the road"

Yes and we have just given them control of our sales too. Thought that was a good move saving 7.5% commision to Wogan, but it could be used as leverage when they buy. But I think they will only be interested in Vanchem. Vametco probably not worth it. life vers cost to refurbish. They'll build their own if they need the added capacity. Their ownership creates a possible conflict of interest now, between the plants wrt future investment.

But this is so undervalued now it should get back to 6p. Upside is now much limited/reduced from what it was. I'll maybe bail for a loss then.