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I'll take the dig cindercone. At 2p its a buy, but I'd wait for the seller to finish first. A bagger is good bet whether trader or investor.
It wont be 8000T of feedstock and not soon.
Long term BMN will only earn on 4960T out of that 8000T, assuming 4000T split between plants. Ownership 50% and 74%.
That is pretty much where we are now, if kiln 3 was producing near capacity.
I knew someone would see a silver lining.
This is not the Love boat cruise we started out on, headed down the Clyde with Captain FM at the wheel, bound for Rothesay and beyond! Its the Waverley steamer thats just announced on the tannoy that the're not going past Gourock and have put the price of the drinks up 25%. Good news is they're getting a new boiler and a supply of coal for life!
Oh look! Is that Goaty on the pier waving at us?
@CC - Woo!, then i'm in profit! I'll see how this plays out. They are not rushing to buy yet. I thought it may go this way and reduced my holding to add elsewhere, expecting to come back to avg down, may still, but its lost its luster .
I'm back to trading now, to make up for lost time. Spread it about. Plenty of baggers out there. Its trying to get the right timing and more luck than research. Win some lose some. Every shares a lesson! GL to you.
@cc - "it sets up the game for BMN to be bought out down the road"
Yes and we have just given them control of our sales too. Thought that was a good move saving 7.5% commision to Wogan, but it could be used as leverage when they buy. But I think they will only be interested in Vanchem. Vametco probably not worth it. life vers cost to refurbish. They'll build their own if they need the added capacity. Their ownership creates a possible conflict of interest now, between the plants wrt future investment.
But this is so undervalued now it should get back to 6p. Upside is now much limited/reduced from what it was. I'll maybe bail for a loss then.
"we must first get smaller to get bigger"
I didnt suffer 5 years of the effects of buying and doing up Vanchem on the SP for them to give half of it away with the Mokopane sale! It is the fact that now we will only get half of any future growth in Vanchem. ie half our future profits are gone. I realise we were not in a strong position, but dilution via new BMN shares rather than our future cash cow company seems preferable, even at this sp.
Is the s l a g for life deal free? How long before our partners are producing?
BMN Saved! My first reaction was 'good deal'. Craig has raised cash and is re-building Kiln 1 as I suggested but BMN will only own/earn about 62% of the overall profits now. (50% Vanchem 74% Vametco). Not sure I like this in the long term now. Need to look at the numbers again.
I think this share has given me concussion with the kicking its given me. I'm more cynical, skeptical and impatient. Disappointed. You may have noticed. I was not looking for a long term hold. Greed and faith were my sins. I still think this will come good if stuck in a bottom drawer. Chancers buying in at this price cant fail to make a bob or two, but risk getting locked in like most of us here, for longer than they would of liked.
I'm waiting for a bright ray of sunshine so I can put my rose tinted glasses back on, like coffeecups, and rejoin the ultras. Maybe the shades I'm wearing are a bit dark, but my thoughts are sincere with either pair on.
On a cheerier note - Could alloys be the next big thing like steel was? When will the inevitable arms and infrastructure rebuilding start that will lead to this spike we are waiting on?
"so it was just a case,of cost effectiveness,we went for the cheap,available alternative."
And we will again. The cost of change is enormous, and so is the amount of resources and energy required to build it all. Which ever way it goes, we will be paying the cost through our bills for years to come. eg Price of elec was not high enough to attract a single bidder for a UK offshore wind farm contract auction the other day.
Ironically coal, gas and oil could live on if CO2 scrubbers arrive soon. US & UK Govts are investing heavily in research. Many countries have access to these resources already, and all to some extent, have the existing infrastructure. It is a low cost solution and is relatively quick to implement. It would allow developing countries to build their way in to a carbon free future as China has done and Saudi is going to do.
It is also ironic that China is the biggest user of coal in the world, but has installed more wind, solar and batteries then anyone else. The Saudi's are using their vast oil wealth to build large scale solar and batteries too. But these are two rich men whose country's have large vanadium resources as a by-product. And probably the only two countries that might meet their emission targets on time.
The voting/tax paying people of the world will have to share the costs where they are, and you can only milk a cow so much. So I think its going to take a decade or two for the West to achieve the same as these guys, or make the changes needed to curb emissions fast enough to stop the 2 degrees C rise. Germany has already caved and delayed its gas boiler ban, UK will too. EV's next. Also why I dont see the same rate of take up of VFRBs in the West before it is eclipsed by a cheaper alternative or change of direction.
I'm just musing, I'll say no more on VRFBs or heat-pumps. The future rarely turns out as we see it, there's always a curve ball. But it is 'all about the money'.
@tekanalyst - Were you asking, because this I know.
a) Its the damp. Penetrates. Finland is colder but drier. Hotter and drier in Summer too.
b) Finish houses are better desinged, built and insulated so better suited. They are also wealthier and have been eco concious for longer than us.
c) And Faramog gave you another reason.
You thinking of buying one? Plenty of buyers remorse coming to light from people that have installed them in England.
Codejunkie, I'm a grumpy old man ATM. Fed up with DYOR. Entrenched in my current thinking, Cant be @rsed, back to living in a bubble, relying on the BB to inform me, but it sounds interesting. Can you summise it for me/others? Has it started, When is it ready? Definitely 100% happening?
After China has taken care of its national needs, then they will turn to the World Market with the cheapest priced electrolyte and batteries too.
Outside of China, I think cost is still a big inhibiter to uptake. I said 5yrs ago that maybe we were too early for the revolution, but we are still waiting for signs of the promised uptake now. All the talk about VRFB growth is by people promoting them in response to the need of long term storage capacity. It is still not a given what that preferred tech will be. A mix we assume.
There is a risk that support grows with help from big multinational companies (Think Shell, BP, Siemens, NG etc) and politicians, for other tech even if less efficient or suitable, but is being pushed nevertheless. (Like heatpumps for UK homes. Going to fail on price alone, never mind their inability to cope with the changeable Scottish weather).
Or when CO2 scrubber systems are invented for industrial use, that can be retrofitted into fossil fuel burning plants, producing by-products for fuel and plastics, thereby reducing oil exploitation and a need for as many batteries. Could happen soon.
Why hasn't any big multinational company or a Govt backed VFRBs with big investments or subsidies? IDC Bank with BMN for the e-plant is small fry cost wise. I am talking about the amounts the Chinese have invested so as to be able to build VRFB's at scale. Largo is even trying to offload their e-plant they are building.
Until I see that happening, I think its just a niche market for companies like IES and Cellcube, supplying a few small units a year. Not impacting demand as forecasted by the experts. BWTFDIK.
I don't worry in any case, because I believe BMN will sell all it can process for steel and alloys. If they are right I make some money.
I suspect we may have the board to thank for FM's departure (and nothing to do with Orion as has been suggested elsewhere), particularly Mr Kirkwood, after he became chairman. Two or three of the NEDs are fairly new in the door. The CFO does not inspire confidence AFAIC, but the boss is new and talks a good game. Lets see if he can do the walk.
Beware the Long time lurker here. He sounds familiar. Vandidium, lol.
While I'm not expecting it, I'm sure the Chinese would be interested in buying BMN, if not just for the iron ore. And in the current political climate, Western interest would be there too. Need to replace reliance on Russian and Chinese supply of vanadium.
I think BMN has been too small to be of interest up to now. Once regular profits are being made that could change.
@Phimx - Whist currently struggling, you have to recognise the value of the assets. Plants and mines and stock, mini grid etc. The company is not distressed enough for such a cheap take over. A little investment would push this into profitability within a year. Not difficult to do. Interest would be strong at that starting price. +20p at least.
A T/O approach would soon push this share to a value well above 6p and closer to its assets. Bring it on!