The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
A bit dramatic. If Covid never happened and they had understood the test results on the ore supplied for kiln 3, and got up to capacity after commissioning, than he may have been a hero. He never committed a crime, just failed to deliver. Let us down, but you backed him to do it, as did I. We took that risk.
Not enough orders/interest and too risky now to commit funds to? Or like BE supposedly was, screwing up your company's valuation, so need to spin it out? Or like BMN too stretched to fund it at this time?
It is starting to bother me that the growth in number of VRFB projects installed has been pretty static for the last 5 years.
Under 2p looks/is cheap, but I have some doubts that need addressing first so I will wait before adding here.
Wait for exCLN holder(s) to sell their shares first.
Wait for Orion deal to be finalised. while I think its a done deal, imagine the carnage if its delayed, modified or cancelled.
Wait for improvement to production. Currently losing money (IMO, DYOR). Need near 5000Tpa to breakeven. Plant sustaining capex (avg $9M pa the last two years) and $7M to be repaid to Orion next year if deal done. How?
Wait for an update from CC. Unfortunately for us, he needs time to assess this mess and give us the road ahead and the cost that may entail.
Wait for V price to get back above $40kg. China and Germany/EU struggling. Maybe next year.
Whist the potential is still here, long term, there are threats and uncertainty now. The business needs to transition into profits quickly. I was always confident BMN could be a very profitable business, but stated before that it looked like slipping further out all the time. It is. I feel we are back to square 1 and now they are going to need more money again to achieve that potential (again!).
It is not binary. He has the option to raise funds in order to guarantee success here. They are close now, but..
He needs to get another kiln on imo, to ensure production is at a level to make sustainable profits. Production is the key here. High fixed cost base. Any savings made will probably be required to shore up the operation. Not reliable yet.
Currently breaking even at best and even on 5000T At $40 kgV, that rate is maybe next year, it is about $20M profit. That has to pay sizable debt and capex. Not going to fund any expansion ahead for a while. If V price falls they are screwed. Only answer is further investment and expansion now or limp along and do it later while hoping the V price rises in the meantime.
I think CC's interests are more aligned to the company's future success than share holders short term pain, so I would not be surprised at a little fund raise soon. Also, the Orion deal is done deal in my book. That card has been played already so is half baked in. Won't have the legs to get past 4p on the news. We'll see. But hoping for 6p on rising production.
And I believe our exCLN holders are selling their new shares.
Well Stevie, (T.Ape, Snakes&B?) If you have them on the phone, asked them this:-
What is the general performance, condition and health of the 2 plants?
How much of the plants and equipment will need upgrading or renewed in the next few years?
Would it be cheaper to develop an in house sales team instead of relying on Wogan to sell most of our product or is this a necessity?
Mr Coltman needs to present his plan for short, medium and long term.
Tell them that all Directors should buy shares to show faith in the company, would be a good start at building sentiment.
Answers from CC at the next meet.
"Both Acacia and Garnet have agreed to subscribe for US$500,000 each of the 2023 CLNs.”
Is that not because VRFB-H shares come with the return of the CLN's?
They are trying to gain shares/control of Enerox, no interest in helping BMN. Naïve to believe that.
I'd say its irrelevant. 33M shares held against nearly 270M likely to be dumped soon. Not large enough to influence BOD or market. The fact that they sold down to raise cash for another business doesn't demonstrate much in the way of support to BMN to me.
Craig realises how cushy he had it at DeBeers. Pressure coming on big time now to produce cash to pay debt, running costs, sustaining capex and all those needy investors to deal with!. Inherited a group of people who dont have a clue. Didn't sound this bad at the job interview. A tinge of regret followed by a steely determination to stick to task. "Tanya, am I on the PDMR plan yet?"
@BenB - Try these,
Why can Vametco cope with their ore, but Vanchem cannot?
How is it the supplied ore is just as cheap as supplying from Vametco?
What was Les Fords advice/solution (World renowned expert)?
How are they going to survive the next two years?
funny thing is many a past critic bought in recently and are already underwater. welcome to the club!
its obvious now that there was not the skills base and knowledge required to run this this operation professionally and profitably, from fm down to the bottom. the investment case here was based on fm's goals and guidance of 5400tpa. trusting he was the man to deliver. well he failed and this has been a **** investment. i misjudged the man. fm covered up the story on kiln 3 for over a year and a half, dressing it up as power cuts. we never knew the whole story until he was pushed out the door.
target slipped by two years now and only producing -4000t in 2023, maybe 4800t in 2024. selling stock pile this year may mean breakeven, but unless they produce and sell +5000tpa, they are not going to be sustainable with v under $40kg. large debt overhanging, even if orion signs. bmn will require funding by next year imo, a new project/plan/path by craig, increased capex and debt restructuring, and then this should be sound with craig running it thereafter. maybe even consolidation so we can get to £1 a share!
how rosy are your tints?
Https://www.bushveldminerals.com/media/broadcasts/brr-media/
Confirms my fears of a long slow recovery and likely more expense to get to decent profits. Also begs the question why they cant use Vametco ore with a similar process as they are doing with someone else's ore. CC has a heck of a lot of work to do.
Agreed Coffecups but I see this limited to 5/6p for now and restricted until profits are clear. Same scenario as the past. There is a risk that the Orion deal will result in another 6 mnths of them selling down their shares at a perceived loss. (They make their money on the rest of the terms.) And who yet knows if emergency capex is going to be required to rectify the current issues, beyond staffing. CC's specialty. 30 yrs of Diamonds, 1 mnth V. Its going to take time.
I understand AIM and know if this becomes vouge, like it has for you now with only a change in leadership, this could be a tidy profit for an avg at this price, but I'm another underwater balancing my risk. I'm not for adding now, BMN is not the only game in town these days. I remain a holder and have hopium.
You've come from bitter expresso to cappuccino with extra sprinkles, lol. ATB!