Member Info for BenAlder

I realise that, but I am happy to wait to achieve those metrics and then expect the SP to catch up. I expect the SP to rise towards fair value, is that not why you buy undervalued shares? The growth here is huge. My figures are modest and based on what I know. Now I have to wait.

When this company has demonstrated it earnings ability, the price will not be down here, I'm betting on it!

What a needy bunch on here regarding constant news flow. Do you not trust Fortune to take this company forwards?

This year was always going to be a quiet year in my view. A time of building as per the plan set out by Fortune. The excitement factor for the year is the price of vanadium.

Next year is take off. Orders for VFRBs will start flooding in via Enerox and IES. V prices are very likely to be higher. Production up 50% to 6000+ mtv and costs back down to under $20 kilo.

So profits could be :- 6000 x 1000 = 6M kilo x ($45-$20) $25 = $150 M pre tax profit. At a modest P/E of 5? you could expect a mcap of $750M assume $1.37/£1 = approx £547M which is a SP of 48.4p

The following years will see production increase 40% from 6000 to 8400mtv, so SP should hit the £1 target I have. Dividends shortly afterwards.

By that time we will be selling electrolyte at a premium price on top of sales to the steel industry. How much? No one knows for sure but Alfa has constantly shown you the potential, and it is massive! Do you not believe it is coming?

Consider that Fortune may never change the way he communicates on BMN or BE. Perhaps he is satisfied with quarterly updates on clearly laid plans. Do you still want to be here? I bet you do, so let them get on with producing these results and the inevitable re-rate.

Its just the moaning, I understand the frustration, but we really are bystanders here. Waiting is the hardest part of investing after picking a winner! ATB

Both!

Short term - now - we are circa 50% undervalued on our current production.

Due to increase production 50% next year to 6000+ mtv
Due to increase production 50% again, within cica 3 years to 8400mtv

Longer term - VRFB demand, electrolyte supply etc...............

you think the Earth is flat too, Noel?

They have been getting paid in shares since this was 4p. No wages. It is not an issue as far as I can see. They took shares in lieu of a salary when times were tough, to help get the debt down. Some profit taking after 4 years can be forgiven.

You'd all do it!

They sold a quarter of what they had, hardly a stamped. Probably pay tax or have a life as someone suggested. Bad timing, but when is ever good?

Selling has been going on longer in any case,

" A significant proportion of executive compensation continues to be paid in shares and this is the first sale of shares in four years during the CEO and CFO's tenure as Company Executives."

Its fair enough if you consider they have had no wages for years.

It takes more than $100M to build a mine and processing plant that is why they just dont spring up. They love FAR and they have not achieved anything yet. No risk there but lots in BMN who have gone through or bypassed the build process.! FAR cost to produce seems too good to me, and their judgement on V price I do not agree with. Sure the V price will stabilise at a lower rate, but not for a couple of years and then it will be $30 area. Try 8400t ~ $40 kg.

" VAT remuneration could be a long time coming."

I do not see Shanta getting a cheque for any VAT repayments from the Govt, but we have been getting offsets against corp tax the last few years, so I see that continuing,

Nice to see the SP rising before WK drilling reports come.

Short has been active for a month, Feb 19.45p high driven down to 16.7 and buy back since. Look at share price now, loads of sells to stop us rising above 19.3!

As I am positive that we are not overpriced - I take it as a buy signal!

Well you either short because you think its overpriced or to control the price as you buy over a period of time. Shorter exit tactic used to buy stock. Only guessing.

Yes, but we have new hope in Kenya, ken ya!

I’ve been betting on the V price rising for the next year, falling back, but holding at $50 - $60 for the next year or two, as demand should remain from steel and then VFRB’s. The following years the price is likely to fall as supply increases.

Vanadium prices are unlikely to fall to the levels we saw last year. India will be the next giant infrastructure growth region to replace China as it winds down. Steel will always lead on the pricing, but VFRBs will keep supply in check and prices at healthy margins. At least that’s the theory!

BMN will surf the waves, gaining fantastic earnings to fund the growth that is needed for processing 8400T pa, and the development of the mines. Fortunes timing on all this would be perfect and reduces potential dilution for us to fund any of it.

I think it must be.

Perhaps we need to get Crux to ask these kind of questions.....

I think there is good clarity on the vanadium side, ie we know the plans pretty well and it all adds up. Its BE where everything is shrouded in mystery. Perhaps Fortune wants to keep us in the dark about his speculating in the VRFB side, hoping to surprise us? Totally dark on the aspirations for Lemur though.

All the sells at around 21.2 are actually buys. You cant go by the buy/sell figures stated.

I never believed that the tenders would be announced on time. Its Africa, give them a few extra months!

I do not see much impact for the share price. IES or Ennrox announcing a deal or an order, is more likely to impact us, not least because we can work out the likely impact financially to us, and the publicity will have more impact too. But I guess you can hope!

I was annoyed yesterday with the paltry token maiden dividend they declared, but Eric did promise one, so I guess they had to. With all the expansion taking place I didn’t think they would, especially so soon after a placing. It had zero impact on the day which was most disappointing. Well it was small and it’s a start so all things considered, today, I feel happier about it.

This is a great company but operating in financially hard territory. I’ll be much happier when we get Kenya up and running as it looks like doing business in Tanzania is tough and risky, ie miners are being screwed from all angles. I am assuming Kenya is a better jurisdiction to operate in. At least politically and financially.

I hope we get some juicy drill results soon as we really need a lift from this bargain basement level and the seller should be finally gone. ….and I guess everyone is waiting for the gold price to explode!