Member Info for belgrano

Yes my uptake on progress is that a drilling campaign has been finalised for a while, however something else much more juicier has come up so they havn't released any news until its decided which way they are going to go. One would be a straightforward drilling campaign using our own funds and fields, the other could be much larger possibly a joint venture or purchase and a larger more adventourous campaign. Just my uptake of course while we await the formal update.

Seeing rush of buys now tree shake seems to be over, could be because the reason for the news blackout is that we are about to get more transformational news, is starting to be recognised.

I see we have some fairly aggressive selling, nearly time to dig out some dry powder.

Continued from 1st post from ADVFN. Finally.. On a personal view, this is why I like this company. It's value is so low yet the opportunity is huge. We either go conservative and build significant value albeit at a slower pace or we have a bandwidth of options ranging to .. make a decent acquisition and obtain extra funding for an accelerated programe. Potentially, this could be a huge opportunity for multiples of where we are now. There's also the takeover prospect. If Brad is too conservative, a predator may decide to do it for us with deeper pockets. All in all ... The future looks exciting here All IMO of course

Sorry I could not accurately answer your question "How much from the 17mill minus current debt is actually available for new drill operations, drilling or acquisitions". I posed the question from you on ADVFN and received the following excellent reply. Belgrano Unlikely you'll receive a response to your question as there isn't a black & white answer. Let's start with reviewing what we know about the finance deal (from RNS): "The Facility contains standard commercial covenants for facilities of this nature, including a requirement for the Company to maintain a senior debt to cash flow ratio** of not more than 3:1." "**senior debt to cash flow ratio are not IFRS defined terms. These are commonly used Canadian E&P lender terms, defined in detail in the Facility Agreement." Ultimately, the fine print of the facility will provide the true definition - whether they are using future forecasts of cash flow etc This is where it's not black & white as the cash flow forecasts would increase with a drilling programme but there are production forecasts & commodity prices etc to be part of the overall metrics to be considered too which leaves things down to agreements between parties on what figures can be used. If we look purely at the Q1 numbers, we generated cashflow of C$1.1m. If that was annualised that gives C$4.4m so a maximum loan availability of C$13.2m (3:1) However this is purely historical and not much use but just a guide of how it looks in that period using the ratio. The things that would be in Edges favour when agreeing drawdowns are the fact that there is a de-risked acreage and known producing wells would provide an effective way of estimating production increases based on a defined capital programme. The commodity prices would be based on current forward pricing so that helps transparency too. All in all, if Edge can deliver a robust, confident set of forecasts then there is scope to release a good chunk of the facility. What makes it interesting is if the funds are used to partly fund an acquisition. That would leave less available for drilling as an acquisition doesn't increase cashflow (unless it's producing - unlikely) So if we do get a debt facility funded acquisition then I'd expect a cautious drilling programme (due to reduced facility available after drawdown for the acquisition) or an alternative source of finance can be found to fund an enhanced drill programme post acquisition. Brad has guided us to a conservative mix of a capital programme plus acquisitions but is also guiding us to the fact they are still looking for alternative sources of finance to accelerate the capital programme (even after the new credit facility as confirmed in Q1 results)

Even though we have seen crude prices dropping the WTI/WCS differential is improving at 15$C. WTI at 93$US. http://www.psac.ca/firstenergy/

Thats the notice to sell repeated for about the 4 month running. they post it every month to keep options open, but have not sold any to my knowledge. I know when they first posted it months ago it caused concern and some sells but its a notice required by canadian rules as they have over 3%. Dont think LSE has that rule, else the market would be swamped as most of the ftse major holders often trade small amounts keeping a large core holding.

there was nothing special about the AGM, I have it on very good authority, although Brad did have a lightning UK visit beforehand. Dont think its anything like an offer, however as acreage and flow rates increase we become more attractive to some of the smaller Canadian oilers who are cash rich, but a;lso seek more reserves. Even the small players could snaffle us quite easily.

Brad is still finalizing details of the drilling campaign that's why we haven't any news. But by these comments we can actually draw some calculated conclusions..The following is just my opinion. Brad has bought some new acreage..we know his team have been looking at some very promising locations, he's already got some finance in place. However when sites are bought, a sweetener to the owner would be to fast track the development/drill something like the discovered three oil pools... they appear to go into a neighboring block as well as our own. That would be a prime target for purchase. Certainly hes not just going to announce "we are drilling 4 wells this year", he could have done that months ago.. several sites have already been selected, my money's on both, drill existing and a new site.

yep, just as tdalamh predicted. However I''m now stuffed to the gills with this stock, ready for that meteoric rise. Thought we had entered oversold territory anyway, good to note that support levels on this stock are rising as repeated good results come in.

Tdalamh, We know Brad was visiting institutions in the UK recently on a lightning stop over, certainly investment could have been on the agenda. Could be some big players also want a slice.. trouble is unless they intend to create more stock (which the company has said it wont), it leaves them with limited options as its now pretty difficult to buy (or sell) a reasonable slice of this company without a major swing in the price in the short term at least.

No way am I selling up, I'm counting on this to be my next multi-bagger. My target is 32p in order to retire, however the potential is actually higher than that. Like yourself I now have a very strong holding here and the patience to hold for fruition. If they want my stock they have to pay a hell of a lot more. Interesting to see although we are now down almost 2p from Monday, total shares sold aren't a great deal.

great post tdalamh, however even though I share your sentiment we have only seen a short spike, with good resistance around the current price. I myself have gone almost all in on this today as I also believe we are about to witness a boom as drilling news gets released along with the other brakes being removed that you just discussed. We will never beat them but we can and will share the ride north soon.

Now seeing fair few buys coming in at 11.02 p or so, being miss reported as sells on this board. I'd call this the btm.

For tdalamh his reply. 10 mins ago. Your assumptions are correct. I haven't been able to get my own broker, SP Angel on the phone to find out what they were thinking. Anyway, every analyst has to make their own timing assumptions in their own respective model. Zac's were clearly on display for us in their article. Brad Nichol

11.01p to buy, a good price, think we've become oversold., and seeing some buys coming in now.

I've e-mailed Brad, asking if Angels comments are true, and if we are "playing things down at the moment", He's always been pretty good with replies and I trust him completely.

The timeframe is short, we know Brad is working on planning a drilling program so information wont be long in coming. With thei brokers all giving upgrades to current price this now gives short as well as long term upside potential from todays price. My gut feel is we wont have to wait very long to see it either. Share price is very close to support levels so I think the sells are almost done as well. Will soon see the rise again in anticipation of the drilling program. The crafty ones will get in now.

I share your opinion that Brad is playing things down. After careful reading of the reports clearly things could have easily been worded in a different light causing a price boom. But why is the question, my thoughts are that he's at tight financial stage in negotiation of more acreage and a drilling program and after a minimal price. Last thing he wants at the moment is a surging share price which counters his ability to hammer down on price for the best deal. Thats why we havn't heard anything yet.. hes still negotiating with drillers and landowners.

good piece of investigative work, well done tdalamh.