Member Info for Beerbull

Correct ffc, I sold a substantial chunk, but I’m taking up open offer & still, holding enough to have a serious interest (albeit not as serious as previous) . I will probably top up when price at a minimum is same or less than what the institutions paid.

Agree Taufour, probably a necessary evil. Institutions will more than likely drip their open offer shares back into the hands of PI’s. Likewise we know how the original 25p convertibles, were shorted I guess we can expect the same from the new issue 18p cbs. In essence not a lot to drive this share up in the short to medium term, although I guess JPM will this time around protect the sp to give support to the bonds that hopefully will be pitched to the market in the Autumn. Personally I wouldn’t be surprised, to see the sp going below 15p before slowly rebuilding, but definitely not expecting fireworks given the massive dilution.

Further to Bloomberg radio, I should have said a figure of 30m barrels of contaminated Russian oil still needs recalling...

Great feature on poo yesterday on the radio, whilst I was stuck listening to it on the m25. I didn’t realise that fracked oil, can’t be used by refineries in the same way as heavy oil. Basic chemistry heavy molecules can be broken down, but light molecules can’t be made heavier. So refiners can’t be reconfigured to refine more light oil. Independent experts opinion was that market is very tight & only trade war is damping price, without it poo would be in the 80’s. So like AB stay strong .

Now that Chris Fraser has been diluted, like the rest , Will he take up the 15p offer. Last time around he declined, smart fella. Acid test

Hope your right MRd, just a thought but given trump is doing his damndest to bring poo down, if you were an opec member would you increase production. ? They have been mugged off once before, I’m not sure even trump could pull it off twice. In my opinion Brent will increase in price, which will be balanced off by shale which will find a market at deeper discounts

Hello Chilting , your not wrong. Although I can see SXX going through similar pain to ENQ, although hopefully ENQ are now coming out the other side. I also take your point re ICL, but theirs a big difference between their forecast sales & what Sxx need to achieve. For me SXX was one to put in the bottom drawer & forget about, but for the foreseeable I think it will be a traders share, with all the convertible short cover & institutions more than likely selling back into the retail market, for the time being it’s just not my bag. As an aside I haven’t mentioned it before but many thanks for your tanker watching. ATB & this is definitely my final word on this.

I know Jim, but the real world is different to controlled trials. Likewise I now question the quality of those torps, given we are only told what we want to hear. This is my last word on it, I hope you guys make good on your investments. Personally I’m out for the time being, but never say never. ATB

Once confidence has been lost, it’s a long haul to rebuild if ever. I know Alang was mocked because he took CF at his word, but who honestly expected the number of shares to virtually double to near 10bn after this raise ? (Fortunately the sp is only down 25% from yesterday, not halved all being equal.) So much is built on faith, it’s been pointed in the past that some of the counter parties to the torps, maybe the original bank consortium thought the same. Probably the riskiest part of the build is the 2 x 1.5km deep shafts. This is not a fixed price contract, if this goes wrong as it did using similar technology at the Jansen mine it could be a major issue. Poly4 sounds like a great product, but in reality until farmers have tried & tested it in the field, their are no volume guarantees when breaking a new product into a competitive market. Not long ago I trusted the BOD, maybe I’ve grown up a bit, but it’s going to take a lot to win back my confidence, in the meantime just hope this doesn’t get swallowed up by the moneymen with their ‘market led ‘bond issues. ATB & hope I’m wrong.

Good luck all you lth’s, which I was until today. I’ll be keeping an eye on proceedings, but not sure my interests are aligned with CF. Yes it will get built, but too many uncertainties for my liking

Hi Slums, like stg1, expectations were too high, stg2 a bit like Groundhog Day. I’m quietly confident this will come good, but like many others disappointed how this has played out & maybe as a result bit more cynical.

Can someone tell me why, other than speed & cost, whyCF has once again gone for an institutional placing ? Short termist city will if stg1 is to go by will dump shares once they’ve made a quick 40% & shares will end up in the hands of PI’s. Groundhog Day & depressed sp for the foreseeable. Moan over, glad that mine is now financed...

Sentimental maybe, as an investment this has been bit of a dog, but I know this doesn’t cut any mustard, I feel happy to have invested in a company, that ticks so many boxes on an emotional level. It will come good, tuckaway & forget. There is a saying in Vegas the house always wins, (read city), but assuming no build overruns & the torps are good, this should workout.

Maybe a generalisation & given no one offer is exactly the same as the last, but wouldn’t be surprised to see this drop below open offer. Hope not but 13p a distinct possibility😢

I agree Fred, just hope the institutions don’t palm the shares back into the hands of PI’s they wouldn’t would they ?

Sky article, states 2.5bn to be raised of this 2.3bn to be debt. Assuming they are correct only 200m gbp will be raised by equity,

Jonesy, given that the majority of sxx shareholders are pi’s are you assuming they will step in & drive up the sp to your predicted price? or do you expect the previously absent institutions to step in at this juncture. Hope your right, but must say I’m not totally convinced

Probably stating the obvious, but Saudi will ultimately do what maintains social stability, whether this means kowtowing to Trump or balancing the deficit. With talk of end of oil, maybe they’ll need a future war chest & make hay whilst the sun shines ? Self preservation a strong motivator.

I like your positivity Tom, personally if we can see 40p this year, I’d be more than happy. Do you have a realistic target for this year. (£1.00 sounds more like a dream). ATB

I sooner trust a red top than ftalpha, but their again you’d probably don’t relate to plebby sun readers...