Member Info for BeContrarian

Dip these pictures are killing me 😂😂😂

I think when we’ve had accretive news since joining the ASX the price response hasn’t been instant. Given the epic scale of the news we’ve just had, the market is going to take some time to fully digest it, even more so given that miners are under the kosh at the moment.

But for me I don’t see how the news doesn’t surpass the projections of even the wildest optimists. Telfer is back! More high grade coming down the track too.

O’Callaghans I don’t really know what to make of. A huge prize, but surely better strategically divested given the unique processing requirements for Tungsten? I’m sure Shaun will make the right deal there.

Really looking forward to Sheffield Bamps. Thanks for your insights!

Great post Dip. My sentiments exactly.

It’ll take the market a while to digest this news but the next 2-3 decades have been laid out. The mother of all buying ops is here.

War will continue to weigh on miners for a while but there’s no denying Greatland’s beautiful new reality. We have arrived.

Who expected anything different? This is an absolute unicorn!

Esduk, indeed. An RNS that’s been dialled in from Shaun for the best part of 6 months. Barring the usual bucking associated with a bull run, the gold macro has held up nicely. It must be Monday or Tuesday, that in itself is bullish, no hiding this at the arse end of the week. I cannot wait to see what their plans are for Telfer!!!

Https://x.com/adamemedia/status/2037096631493935383?s=46

Might have something to do with it

Shaun going to have to introduce a strict 1 sugar limit on all Telfer brews. Cheers for the heads up Mooner.

Would be pleasantly surprised to see a cash offer for OCallaghans but it would be coming out of left field IMO. More likely road to monetising the asset would be an offtake agreement, processing/infrastructure grant, or a combination of those two.

It’s abundantly clear that the US is looking for a reason to walk away. Iran just needs to give them one. Ironically, having a functioning leadership would’ve made the regime’s behaviour a bit more predictable on this point, and a deal more likely. But the current setup (whatever that is) might not be so obliging.

One thing is clear, it is hurting the US interests massively and an escalation will be political suicide for the republicans.

The inflation shock is going to expedite the dollar’s demise, that’s for sure. Part of me wonders whether the plan from the get go relied on smashing the dollar to inflate the debt away. Maybe the war in Iran gives the US a scapegoat for that plan…

Timber: re the MRE, I think the fact Shaun has held off amidst all this turbulence is hugely bullish IMO.

If the MRE was anything but spectacular he could’ve let it get washed out in last weeks turbulence no problems at all.

The market needs to be primed and ready for what’s about to drop.

Troll’s Bottom formation confirmed. 😅

Seriously though every time a few negative nancies descend on the board in tandem how often have we bounced big?? There might be something in this; I’ll write to investopedia 😂😂😂

There’s a bit of panic around at the moment, which is to be expected when a messy war is unfolding in the Middle East. Everything is getting sucked into the panic.

But the big macro levers are being pulled here.

Bond yields are going bananas.

Recession seems almost guaranteed.

Inflation bound to run hot, the energy shock will see to that.

This is absolute rocket fuel for gold in the long term.

For gold to really shine, ironically, it needs things to break a bit first, and gold isn’t immune from the fallout in the short term. But to me, it seems the path to 8k gold seems set now, and the Iran war has simply sped that process up.

GDX rebalance came at a time when gold took a major beating. That was undoubtedly capitalised on and hence the absolute hammering now. GGP got absolutely smashed versus the likes of evolution, northern star, Regis etc which each shed about 2%. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out why.

I don’t really get why sellers are arriving now, so close to news, and at these rock bottom prices. Funny old things are markets! That P/E compressing right back to around 6 now. So some massive value to be had at these prices, with the rare prospect of a quick buck next week.

Taking a longer view, and barring an absolute macro disaster, GGP has secured its long term future in this past year. The cash generation means GGP could, if it wants, go it alone on Havieron. Once Hav is online the AISC is going to drop dramatically and the cash machine is up and running for us.

It’s been a rough week that’s for sure. But the stage is set for a major re rating in the coming months.

If this is being front run by GDX, the Aussies are bending over nicely to allow circa 4million a day to go since Monday without much fuss…

We want success in the Paterson, Greatland win either way (through MandA or tolling) but Poulden, Leningas and his ilk are just poison and it’s about time that bunch of ramping charlatans got called out for the lifestyle tourists they are. We seem to be making some good connections with Rincon and of course wil be keeping a close eye on other developments.

Wishbone seems an apt name: it’s all they’ve got on the balance sheet!

Think Dip’s got a point and the weekend always a good time to zoom out a little bit.

If your hold horizon is truly long term (10 years plus) I think you’re basically guaranteed excellent returns here. Even if gold goes all the way back to US 3k (not likely, but let’s just test this) once Havieron is online GGP is going to kicking out Aussie 2billion free cash per year at 500k ounces.

This share is going to be churning out some serious dividends even if the gold bull ends. And this is of course discounting the huge monopoly GGP has in the region, able to cherry pick local prospects (of which there are many) to drive up grade through Telfer.

And at US 5k an ounce, maybe more? Well we’ve got a true monster on our hands then! ;)

At this rate I could do with asking Shaun for next week’s lottery numbers.

ASX100 inclusion

GDX inclusion

Curiously, just in time for this highly anticipated March update.

It’s as if this had all been planned for, and timed, from the outset…

Last year was fun, this year could top it. Greatland primed for the major leagues now. And Northern Star’s faltering is going to make us shine all the brighter, if we get it right.

Have a great weekend all!

Punter, why are you here? Like what are you getting out of this? Genuine question.

I think you’re right sage, miners just being caught up in all other equities. I must say it has surprised me how well gold has performed in the midst of all this dollar strengthening. The flight to cash usually precipitates a pretty sharp relative drop in commodities, especially in the short term, but this hasn’t happened .

Of course, the increased fuel costs are a factor not to be dismissed within mining. But it seems totally overdone to me. Fuel accounts for just 10-15% of AISC typically, yet miners see themselves 30% down?! That’s a complete overreaction and a complete decoupling of perception and reality IMV.