Member Info for BeContrarian

Time in the market beats timing the market.

GGP proves that.

As I said at the time. Look again at Shaun’s face at the town hall interview. His poker face is good, but there was a glint in his eye when O’Callaghans was raised by Donald.

So the great window dressing operation of central banks has now begun in earnest, beginning with our own BofE.

Apparently, it's too soon to say how this colossal spike in oil prices might play out. Apparently it's creating some 'uncertainty' how these apparently top financial analysts create such insightful observations is really quite impressive. Proverbial cans getting kicked down all sorts of proverbial roads eh!

But I think there is an important note for how things might play out.

Inscribed into economic dogma is that rising rates = bad for gold. But that dogma is about to be tested to its absolute limits.

I do think that in most developed economies, rates will rise. But...crucially, gold will still rip. Why? Because what you will see is 'token gesture' rate rises based purely on disingenuous attempts to preserve the optics of their fiat currency. Lots of fancy finance jargon for basically sitting on hands, whilst real inflation runs at 15 maybe even 20%... I think the market will have its say about this. It's already showing up in the bond market, with 30Y US eclipsing 5%. This is uncharted territory and I believe we are now in the beginnings of the end in terms of the great Fiat inflation bonanza.

For gold bulls, forget Ukraine, forget Iran, forget even Trump, forget all the other stuff. It has always been about what happens when an irresistible force (inflation) meets the immovable object (debt). And the BOE just fired the starting gun.

How on god’s green earth have they managed to get AISC down with all that drilling, workforce expansion, investment in the fleet etc, on top of all the usual inflationary pressures?!

Make it make sense! 🤩 🤩

I don’t see a bid coming just yet, but when I listened to Rick Rule, all that kept ringing in my head was ‘he’s talking about GGP’.

In short:

- they will want safe jurisdictions

- they will want any acquisitions to IMMEDIATELY contribute to their bottom line

- they will want to acquire assets that are likely to add to their reserves over time

Of course, to suggest majors want tier 1 deposits is as obvious a statement as it gets. But I think what Rule is suggesting is that production and processing infrastructure is going to be of equal strategic importance to the resource when identifying targets. It’s no longer case that a huge tier 1 deposits will catch a bid if there’s 5 years to production and it’s in the back of beyond with no infrastructure. Viewed through this lens what price does one put on Telfer?!

Nice problems to have.

TT interesting note there.

Much more caution and introspection amongst the mining sector’s big players vs the MandA bonanza of the last bull run. The sector got hit hard after that, so clearly lessons learned. This caution bodes well if the market is convicted the best mining outfits can weather gold cycles.

Rick rule has a different opinion and thinks majors will soon embark on big MandA projects in the pursuit of production ounces. He makes a good point that many majors, NEM included, are way off what they used to produce and that ‘ready to mine’ or already operational projects will command huge premiums in the major’s efforts to get back to massive production. That puts outfits like GGP right in the takeover crosshairs. I’m sure if a bid came in Shaun would make sure they pay handsomely.

Element, interesting. I also took a look at Newmont’s quarterlies.

Also important to note (hinted at in your free cash note there) that they do have quite sizeable debt. We have none. That makes for a much cleaner financial profile IMO. Whilst to be expected as we aren’t massive like NEM, we also have a superior FCF multiple.

I think this helps contextualise how operationally we are up there with the very best.

What Bamps shares at these meetings is hard to articulate in a post. Most of his work is triangulating satellite images with mine/drill plans. Especially how the geological anticlines map across the Telfer site. When you see the actual mineralised reefs in the images he’s showing you, it’s mind blowing to be honest.

What he revealed last year turned out to be precisely the areas Greatland focused on in the updated MRE. Now the suggestion is that the WDU: they’re only just getting started there. The other suggestion is that stage 2 is colossal, and that there is potentially a whole system yet to be found between the main and west dome.

Suffice to say, if that is all proved up, Telfer will easily outlive us all…And I’m 39!

Oh, and keep your eye on Desert’s Revenge.

Bamps is a rare gift to us shareholders. The generosity of both time and spirit to give these meetings freely is mind blowing. Thank you Bamps!

I feel bad but I felt compelled… I fact checked Shaun yesterday.

During the TH presentation, he claimed GGP was the third largest gold miner on the ASX. I thought ‘no way, not so soon’. But here it is:

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/sectors/materials/materials/metals-mining/gold

(Discount Newmont as they are not an Aussie major)

Now there is a big old gap between us and Evolution and Northern Star, but when economic reality hits, that gap will close quite considerably.

The only 2 companies to eclipse us in market cap have PEs around 20. Greatland? Half that. ‘Ok, ok, maybe that’s because GGP is operationally inconsistent?’ Nope. GGP is number 1 for FCF generation and that’s IN SPITE of a huge drilling and investment programme. Now I like Evolution a lot, but we have NST absolutely licked there.

So why is GGP still around that relatively low PE? My answer: it won’t be for long, and it’s changing before our eyes. I really do think that it’s a matter of time before economic bites and the ASX realises what this company is actually about. That is why we are nudging around all time highs in spite of a fairly challenging gold price environment. That is why the volumes are consistently higher these days. When gold gets a move on, I expect GGP to outshine all others as it takes its rightful spot in terms of PE. What a time to be invested. There’s plenty of growth to come, of that I’m pretty sure!

Looking forward to Sheffield later!

A great question came in about the balance of shares London vs ASX. Shaun’s answer, I felt, downplayed the velocity of migration from London to AUS. He suggested that ASX now holds the bulk of the shares. I think that for those of us who are left, this is good news. It’s likely those hands are institutional, and sticky.

Whilst I do find X a great source of information, one needs a finely tuned hyperbole filter these days. Every little thing is talked up as being either the best or most catastrophic thing to ever happen because it gets clicks and engagement.

The truth of it is the fire is now contained: it was a small part of the refinery dealing with performance fuels. Diesel has nothing to do with it. The refinery is on the literal other side of Australia so yes, there could be an argument that mining in and around Victoria could be affected but the notion that WA mining outfits would be affected ignores geographical realities.

Secondly, the Aussie fuel ‘crisis’ to my mind is being massively overegged. Firstly, it’s a demand problem, rather than supply. Very few deliveries being cancelled but as usual when you have every Tom dick and Harry panic buying, issues emerge. Also worth mentioning is government making clear fuel will be prioritised for industry. Do you honestly think that the Aussie powerhouse is going to be outbid for fuel by a Thai fishing boat or a Vietnamese trucking outfit? I don’t think so.

People need to get the tin hats off and assess the facts, not engage with this alarmist nonsense.

Thanks Dip have submitted a question.

My work means I likely will never be able to attend a town hall so long as they are on weekdays, so I envy those attending and being able to thank SD in person!

Doing very nicely 😏

As a general trend observing the gold price during this bull market, whatever the gold price does right on the opening after the weekend, it tends to reverse that action shortly afterwards.

We saw that again today.

We can add ‘can’t tell the time’ to the long list of Punt’s flaws.

Think it’s important to keep in mind that last time we flirted with all time highs, gold was nearly $1k higher than it is now. So whilst macro will always be an important driver, I think our trip from £4.40 to now has been driven by the excellent new flow delivered by Greatland. The company have delivered genuine value creation for shareholders against a fairly challenging macro backdrop.

Also of note is the volume. Clearly lots of appetite at these prices so once sellers are cleared the run up to £8 could be rapid.

Happy days!

I plan on holding a good chunk indefinitely because I reckon I’ll see my entire investment back in dividends within 20 years. I get that for some the time horizons are different but for anyone sub 50 an indefinite hold of say 50% of your investment is a no brainer.

That said, my long suffering wife rightly asks when we might sell a few and enjoy the fruits of all that delayed gratification, ‘not yet’ I reply. Shaun’s master plan is only half way there😅😅😅

Straight out the blocks big volume today. I suspect those 6 million shares are entering very sticky hands and headed down under. Sellers can’t be blamed when SP is at all time highs but for many of us this is just getting started.

What a company.

Havieron getting the green light.

Telfer still an absolute monster of a mine.

Looking like we will smash guidance.

Got a lot of time for Don Durrett but he’s wrong about one thing: why spread your risk when there’s a company like Greatland? The alpha being generated here has, is, and will continue to be sector leading.

We’ve got a rare one in Shaun Day. What a job him and his team have done.

Imagine you didn’t know much about mining and you took a video like this at face value. You’d be getting your backside handed to you.

On one hand a professional analyst getting YouTube attention talking his own book ramping Antipa.

Then consider the likes of Bamps and Element on here.

Then triangulate that with SP performance and what’s actually come to pass.

Who has been right? The likes Bamps and Element or these so called professionals?

I rest my case.

We are incredibly lucky to have people like that on this board. It’s a shark pit out there but I genuinely feel that these guys are better than any analyst piece/broker note out there.