focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Https://tritonrankers.com/rankers/us/networks-weekly-users/2024/2
Manipulation is rife. All the below trades were buys printed as sells.
5647
2500
7000
14500
500
554
Indeed.
Really looking forward to the Q1 results.
Boom is a sitting duck at this valuation, cannot see anyone paying more than they need to. With m&a activity heating up in 2024 big players would snap up boom sooner rather than later with their record breaking numbers chugging up the ranks.
Https://radiotoday.com.au/true-crime-tops-the-latest-australian-podcast-ranker/
I was waiting for a dip, but decided to buy now. Struggling to get quotes for more than 1k shares
Another 20k share buy at 272.5, there is something going on. Big buying for a number of days
Mergers and acquisitions activity is poised to rebound later this year after a sluggish 2023 as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates and cash-flush buyers gear up for bigger deals as dealmakers see "green shoots" in the quarters ahead.
Some of the world's most high-profile investment bankers and M&A lawyers speaking at the Tulane Corporate Law Institute conference in New Orleans said confidence levels have returned to boardrooms due to an improved interest rate outlook, slowing inflation, strong corporate earnings, and a robust stock market.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/dealmakers-see-green-shoots-ma-activity-election-year-after-2023-doldrums-2024-03-07/
I had £30k set aside to add when this was about to run, I missed the boat, order didn’t fill. So I agree, there’s a buyer around.
I will keep an eye out to add if the opportunity presents itself. I know it’s cheap already, but I have more than enough.
20k share bought at 275, 95k shares traded
Agreed
If mm’s want to giveaway free money, I won’t say no to low hanging fruit
Maybe they can be kind enough to give us one more cheap top up before the Q1 results
Audioboom (AIM: BOOM), the leading global podcast company, is pleased to announce the extension of partnerships with top-tier podcasts The Tim Dillon Show, Crime Weekly, True Crime Obsessed, Real Ghost Stories and I Think Not.
The five shows are a key part of the Audioboom Creator Network, contributing more than 90 million downloads to the network during 2023.
Audioboom will continue to provide commercial services to the shows including monetisation of the podcasts through Showcase, the Company's automated global ad marketplace. Additionally, the podcasts will utilise the Audioboom distribution platform and marketing network.
The Tim Dillon Show first partnered with Audioboom in 2022 and is now a top 50 podcast on the latest US ranker. True Crime Obsessed - a top 100 podcast - joined Audioboom's Creator Network in 2017, and the multi-year extension will take the partnership into its tenth year.
Crime Weekly is a hit video podcast with millions of views on YouTube during 2023 - Audioboom will provide advertising sales across the video production, extending the Company's focus on YouTube monetisation.
Audioboom continues to create long-term value with partnership deals being renewed on 24 or 36 month arrangements, providing strong revenue visibility plus stability for brands running advertising campaigns across our network.
Audioboom's CEO, Stuart Last commented: "We're so pleased to continue our work with five of our favourite podcasts. These shows trust Audioboom to deliver their technology, distribution and monetisation, and we look forward to a successful future together."
Just pressing against the key 270p resistance level again. Decent volume today and held near highs at close. Sellers now getting easily absorbed. Could see £3+ this week & still standing by £4 end March target. #BOOM
https://twitter.com/AlignResearch/status/1764707885672464839
Worth revisiting this from
@MylesMcNulty
who we respect & who has done some great overview research on Audioboom #BOOM. Back to the key 250/270p level at Fri's close. Suspect this gets resolutely pushed through next wk. Still standing by 400p target by end March.
https://twitter.com/AlignResearch/status/1763840426509729950
More like dead stock hahaha “sell off”
What a pleasant watch today
Livestock give ur head a wobble, ur the one who has been posting misleading information since Sunday. Have some shame.
And even more so the EBITDA forecast of $1.3m. The RNS of 16 Feb suggests that the Company is already building on the Q4 revenue figure of $19.2m. Furthermore, the Company has become much leaner over the past 12 months (headcount reduced), and has reduced minimum guarantee obligations for its podcast creators (will be over $2.5m throughout 2024).
Beating market forecasts is the way to go.
@Audioboom
's management is acutely aware of this, following that remarkable share price run over 2 years that began in H2 2020.
Over the past 4-5 months, the Company has been trading at the steepest discount it ever has, relative to its own revenues. If it were tracking its own historic valuation, it should be at over 700p right now. In contrast, the Company is now arguably in its strongest ever position. Its topline is growing rapidly once more - outstripping the growth of the wider podcasting industry, in fact; and is likely to move into healthy profitability this year. Management is openly signposting that 2024 will be a record year.
Forecast upgrades will come, and will drive BOOM's share price much higher over the next 12 months, I believe.
N.B. I do have a significant holding and I will continue to add as and when I can, at sub 300p.
2/2
I've been doing a bit of work on #AUDIOBOOM #BOOM's valuation.
M&A in the podcasting space tends to be based on enterprise value/sales ratio (or price-to-sales ratio, which is the same except that it does not account for cash or debt on the balance sheet).
Transactions in the space over the past five years for which there is publicly available financial data include:
- iHeartMedia acquiring Triton Media for an enterprise value of $228m (an EV/Sales ratio of 5.0x)
- Amazon acquiring Wondery for an enterprise value of $300m (an EV/Sales ratio of 7.5x)
- Sirius XM acquiring Stitcher for an enterprise value of $325m (an EV/Sales ratio of 4.5x)
- Spotify acquiring Gimlet Media for an enterprise value of $230m (an EV/Sales ratio of 10.2x)
That's a mean EV/Sales ratio of 6.8x.
In the graph below, I have charted Audioboom's quarterly revenues over the past 5 years / 20 quarters from Q1 2019 to Q4 2023 (y-axis, left side) against the average weighted market capitalization for each quarter (y-axis, right side).
I have used a PSR over EV/Sales as BOOM did not have any significant debt in the period, nor did it ever have surplus cash (in fact, it relied on cash injections from equity raises until 2020). Accordingly, PSR in BOOM's case is an adequate proxy for EV/Sales, when comparing against the aforementioned M&A activity.
On average, across the 5-year period, BOOM has traded on a current year PSR of 1.85x (and a median PSR of 1.55x).
The combination of the share price collapse throughout last year (which bottomed in early November), coupled with the return to strong topline growth in Q4, means that the stock is now trading at a 62% discount to where it has traded over the past five years, on a PSR basis. Or to put it another way, just to be trading in line with where it has (relative to its revenues) over the pat five years, BOOM should currently be priced at 717p.
Now consider the known M&A valuations of the past five years. A mean EV/Sales ratio of 6.8x - versus BOOM's currently at 0.68x.
Based purely on previous M&A activity and using the peer group average, BOOM's "premium takeover" valuation would be 10x / 900% higher than it is: 2,500p.
The challenge is to understand why the share price collapsed over the past two years, and if the collapse was too extreme / unwarranted. My own view is that a temporary topline contraction in 2023 - caused by both the loss of a key podcast (Morbid) in 2022, and by a major downturn in the global advertising market between Q3 2022 and Q3 2023 - caused major uncertainty and yes, did drive an unwarranted sell off.
The next challenge is to understand what could catalyze a major (and sustained) share price rerating again. For me, this is very simple: continued topline growth (following the excellent Q4 2023), and a return to healthy profitability, which leads to forecast upgrades.
My own view is that BOOM smashes the consensus revenue forecast for 2024 of $79m
My opinion is the same as MM
What an update from #AUDIOBOOM #BOOM.
- In January, podcasts were downloaded by over 38.6 million unique listeners worldwide, a new monthly record and more than 9% up on Q4 2023's monthly average;
-
@Audioboom
remains the 5th largest podcaster in the US, but is growing faster than its competitors. Should move into 4th place soon.
The Company's turnaround following the industry-wide slump in podcasting (H2 '22 - H1 '23) is gaining pace. I am absolutely convinced that the consensus revenue forecast of $79m for FY24 will be smashed, as will the EBITDA forecast of $1.3m.
I've sat here (stupidly?!) and watched paper gains (peaked at +143% last month, after November entry) reduce alarmingly over the past five weeks, as the share price has retraced by as much as 38% from the 345p high. Hopefully today's news begins to justify the lack of profit taking!
To repeat some of my post from last month: BOOM is now trading on a 2024 PSR of around 0.65x. 'Resting' fair value is 3x that, in my view - with a T/O value perhaps 6-10x that.