IC - Phil Oakley5 Jul 2019 15:53
Telford Homes
At the end of May when commenting on its full-year results,
I remarked on how I quite liked Telford Homes’ (TEF) shift
to a build-to-rent business model, but that I didn’t think
that its shares were compellingly cheap at 290p.
Commercial real estate services and investment firm
CBRE has taken a different view on Telford’s valuation
and had offered to pay 350p per share to buy the business outright. This has been accepted by Telford’s board
and CBRE has said that the offer is final and would not be
increased.
The investors on my Twitter feed seemed quite underwhelmed by the comparatively stingy 11 per cent premium
to Tuesday night’s closing price. It values the shares at a
2020 forecast PE of 13.4 times and a 3 per cent premium to
the forecast March 2020 NAV.
I have some sympathy with this view, but Telford’s
board of directors accepting and recommending the offer
makes it clear that they think it is a fair and reasonable
offer for the business at such an advanced stage of the
current UK house price cycle.
Whether Telford’s shareholders think that this is the end
of the matter is far from certain. As I write this, Telford’s
share price is 354p – above CBRE’s offer – which suggests
that some investors think a counter bid is possible.
Who from is anyone’s guess. Bovis recently tried to buy
Linden Homes from Galliford Try, but they have yet to
express a desire to enter the buy-to-rent business. I think
it is possible that a financial buyer or even an institutional
buy-to-rent investor could throw its hat into the ring.