Member Info for BaysilHope

I was waiting for this old chestnut, usually comes after decimating the BOD, UK Govt EPL, covid and then diss WD as a sack of merde and why? as you increase your shorts. Of course they were, with less shares in issue - makes this deal easier with less future dilution and less new shares to issue FFS.

Remember the lower the SP the greater the future risk if short and divi pay back. This is a great oppo to have another go IMO DYOR GLA. Never boring here.

Surely you buy a business for potential earnings and what synergies and benefits it conveys on the buyer. nobody is considering this.

1. If we remain stagnant HBR would hit the ftse 350 with no future short to medium term.

2. Potential, just one field changes the dynamics of the group. Zama - The field mainly has light oil featuring API gravities between 28° and 30°, along with associated gases. The field holds recoverable volumes of 625.68 million barrels of oil and 243.29 billion cubic feet of gas. It is estimated to have a recovery rate of 37.8% for both oil and gas. Pemex serves as the operator of the field with 50.43% working interest. The other partners in the field are Wintershall Dea (19.83%), Talos Energy (17.35%) and Harbour Energy (12.39%).

HBR stands to get 32% of one of the best O&G projects anywhere in the world and please do go pixxing on about tax FFS. this is a $80bn field and just the start of Mexico, why don't you think Slim's diving in.

I just think all these arguments are there to knock HBR SP- no other O&G firm is capable of pulling off a deal. HBR BOD will extrude cost savings from this TO as the track record shows. Bottom line HBR has transformed its fortunes with this deal. I question anyone's motives for stating otherwise, as the deal is no doubt is heavily discounted to get it done. Just look at Zama potential, which is the tip of the iceberg and we get 32%. Incredible, out manoeuvring Slim. Well done Linda. GLA.

Key here is the consideration matrix. HBR will limit new share issue to 921m. That's fact. WD have bent over backwards to get this deal done and make it affordable for HBR whilst not short changing their SH'ers. Any more shares issued would mean HBR lose control, the retained cash from June 23 gets the deal over the line. In any other circumstances HBR could never afford this monster M&A deal. WD would have taken govt permissions into context with a high degree of detail and planning. HBR is very (Extremely) lucky indeed and have acted at an opportune time to give a willing seller a desirable exit route, with a high degree chance of success.

RTO adr up 4.87% probably waiting for this.

2023 Fourth Quarter Highlights

• Revenues increased 14% to $754 million. Organic revenues* increased over 7% and acquisition-related revenue increased approximately 7%.

• Operating income increased 16% to $139 million. Operating margin increased 30 basis points to 18.4% of revenue. Adjusted operating income* increased 20% to $144 million. Adjusted operating income margin* increased 100 basis points to 19.1% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA* increased 14% to $167 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin* was 22.1%, flat versus last year due to lower non-operational gains included in other income associated with vehicle and property sales.

• Net income increased 29% to $109 million. Adjusted net income* increased 20% to $101 million.

• EPS increased 29% to $0.22 per diluted share. Adjusted EPS* increased 24% to $0.21 per diluted share.

• Operating cash flow increased 24% to $153 million. During the quarter, the Company invested $18 million in acquisitions, $11 million in capital expenditures, and paid dividends totaling $73 million.

• The underlying health of core pest control markets, as well as Rollins' ongoing commitment to operational execution, should support another year of strong organic growth, further complemented by a strategic and disciplined approach to acquisitions. As we look to 2024, demand for our services is solid and our pipeline for acquisitions is robust.

See what 7th Mar brings but no structural issue with the US Market. GLA

I've been watching this share for a while. I don't really understand the magnitude of the 35% SP collapse from 610p to 396p, when the disappointment of the Oct TU points to some margin pressure in the US. Taking a step back, this SP fell 42% in the COVID pandemic Feb - Mar 20, for understandable material reasons, from 505p to 289p.

The US margin set back is NOT a China property related structural collapse. Growth elsewhere in the RTO global markets is progressing positively and will offset the US to a point. RTO appear confident in the 2023 FY result.

The RTO business model is inflation proof and does not require long lead time massive capital expenditure in manufacturing. Admittedly the PE ratio was lofty but now has fallen back to below the sector average. IMO DYOR, RTO is in a far stronger trading position than 2 years ago and will reap synergy benefits in 2024 with the Terminix acq'n and a vastly improving US & Global interest rate and inflationary trading environment.

IMO I think the majority of the downside is in the current SP (barring a complete meltdown in trading), if it came thru Covid relatively unscathed, then this is just a short term blip. Fingers crossed I'm in. GLA FWIW. News 7th Mar & TU Q1 18th Apr - not long.

Ex div 11th April ish, just buy more - lower risk the cheaper this gets and the margin to £3.60 grows exponentially, where else can you beat this. A TO that quadruples your size (at discount with a willing seller giving us their earnings since June 23 to fund it FFS and the shares are cheaper now than mid October!!??. Pinch me.

No wonder II's are sucking shares from the weak. I will be but at a cheaper rate. All this BS about the deal failing, it is a shorting excuse as they are on borrowed time. At this price, those holding short position Pre deal can get out unscathed. Once that backlog clears this will rise. FY results on the 7th Mar with more TO news, divi then prospectus. 2024 will be another transformational year for HBR. With Zama on stream this will be +600k bopd - can't wait.

I'd luzz £2.35, waiting her with ISA funds just cashed in. £2.55 TOO EXPENSIVE with the monkees at play. Now Zama & Pemex, "strategic project" status by Pemex and the Mexican Government.

Zama was discovered in 2017 and fully appraised in 2019 by the Block 7 consortium, which includes Talos, Wintershall Dea and Harbour. Zama is being developed to produce up to 180,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which represents over 10% of Mexico's current oil production. Production is expected to be comprised of approximately 94% oil of excellent quality, with API gravities of between 26° and 29°. Zama has been awarded "strategic project" status by Pemex and the Mexican Government. As per the Unitisation Resolution from March 2022, initial participating interests are Pemex 50.4%, Talos 17.4%, Wintershall Dea 19.8% and Harbour 12.4%. 29yr life reserves thru the roof with 32% - Unbelieveable and all going for £2.35 where else do we get this, Pemex gets us thru Mexico leg with Slim, bring on the rest.

Absolutely joyous, keeping shorting boys, 20p to go. Thanks. Baysil

Kokomo, we'll have 32% of it FFS. HNY

Slim is looking to corner Mexico Oil with his ubiquity. Zama- he's in Talos 17.35% now HBR 12.4% and will get a slice of WD's 19.8% thru HBr. Then more of Block 30 etc etc. The man will really help HBR\Wd get Mexico approval no doubt and HBR is a cheap way in, not at £3.60 FFS. WD want this deal to happen, hence the funding terms, that allow a HBR minnow to get the deal done. If this were hostile, we'd be on the pavement as a joke. I think we have got a lot of support to get this deal to work, despite the odd bump. Can't think of a more aggressive BOD. I always wondered why they walked from Shell's Norwegian assets and Talos. Now we do do - TOO SMALL. HNY GLA

I think Slim is better than share buybacks.

Great posts & Steveo appreciate the thought process, I'm gutted obviously as a HBR Future guidance but - it is was it is - I hate that when the kids say it. I was not expecting fireworks but not that 2024 outlook. We have 8 mths to run as this runt of a business after EPL (Cashflow meant) - however brilliantly run and aggressive (especially after EPL crippling it's ability for M&A FFS unbelievable ) - this will be rewarded but I want to sleep and not look at this until 2025- no chance. GLA

Quote

Six of the UK's nine nuclear reactors are currently offline for maintenance, operator EDF has confirmed.

It means the UK is missing 58% of its nuclear power capacity, with 3.5GW of the total 6GW temporarily out of action, Nuclear Industry Association (NIA) said.

The UK was, on Wednesday, relying on gas for 59% of its electricity, with wind providing 15%, nuclear 6% and the rest coming from biomass, solar, and coal.

A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson said: "This is not unusual - regular periods of maintenance and inspections are entirely in line with our management of nuclear power and this can occasionally overlap with planned outages, with a proportion of power unavailable for short periods of time.

"Nuclear forms only part of the UK's secure and diverse energy mix, providing approximately 15% of the UK's electricity. Even during these periods, nuclear continues to produce enough power to around 11 million homes."

"Last week we set out a roadmap on how we will quadruple our supply of clean and reliable nuclear power by 2050."

Two further reactors - one at Torness in east Scotland and one at Heysham 2 - have been shutdown for planned maintenance, which happens a few times a year for things like refuelling or inspections.

These two are due to fire up again before the end of the month.

Rooksie - love the MACD play, quite right for a normal share, with the POO in the midst of world conflict - needs modifying. All you need is Iran to grow a pair ( God forbid) and there's an issue - don't think they will but there's the rub. US Capex oil falling so maybe output peaked, their breakeven is $40/barrel not checked, why beat yourself up sweetpea FFS. HNY GLA

Hey Jacwipe, if you lose your largest producing assets because of war, it takes time for the business to adjust to a materially different business model. Quote 'EBITDAX Totalling €964 million in the period under review, EBITDAX was €1,607 million lower than the prior-year figure (€2,571 million), mainly because of the deconsolidation Russia, including $445m impairment & $223m G&A for Russia consolidation. Also -

In addition, revenues gas include realised losses of €374 million for fixed-price contracts for which hedge accounting is applied.

HBR is taking on the Clean profitable operating business and will further rationalise overhead costs during a phase of consolidation. So coco do some research rather than throw up mud. HNY

As was stated earlier, in many posts, Jefff was able to short HBR ad infinityism as HBR's recent growth prospects were destroyed by EPL, debilitating hedges, narrow UK output focus and the natural lead time for new discoveries coming on stream outside of the short term.

Now with WD, the SP cul de sac is destroyed. When you increase your output by 150% in 9mths, then multiply that by the number of growth opportunities circa +400% and then add the cascading shortened time frame into the business trading model, new access to funding for a FTSE 100 (no longer constrained by expensive RBL bankers), the SP upside is frighteningly massive.

The financial momentum and commercial trading power of +500kbodp allows the BOD to exponentially develop so many synergic operations and get a material re-rating after investment grade status (Critical Mass - New Business Model).

For the first time HBR will truly be in control of its destiny. After initially destroying debt and crippling hedges, it will break free of EPL and the UK narrow geo production profile. It will become a major player in Mexico in no time and exploit new production in Norway. This high speed train hasn't started yet - book your ticket, even if it retraces. As others have who missed the £2.22 entry point or were short. Don't get shafted again peeps.

I'm building a core holding over time, when other holdings mature. HNY.

Looking forward to a new super charged HBR in 2024 - HAPPY NEW YEAR LINDA &BOD. HNY.

Oxy acquires Crownrock for $12bn funded by buffett loan, gets 170boepd, 100k acreage and $1bn FCF yr 1 with opex $40/barrel FFS. They been scammed, our deal is probably $4-5bn better, with $2.7bn potential to fund acq'n from WD resources. This will be a game changer and had the benefits of NO Bidding war.

Post deal HBR will have further access to 10 Mexico licences - +32% of Zama and 70% of Block 30 plus operatorship, together with 37% of Hokchi producing 28kbopd and huge more potential for multiple significant discoveries. This answers HBR's prayers for diversification away from UK(obviously with all the others Norway etc), it looks like Wintershall DEA have discounted the deal for the reverse takeover of HBR and post their position will have significant legs to run up, maybe increasing their selling price by a further 30-40% over time-through HBR SP. Mexico has a particularly exciting upside IMO DYOR.

iran's state television interrupted its normal broadcasts to announce mousavi's death, according to reuters. mousavi led the coordination of the military alliance between syria and iran, which has sent hundreds of revolutionary guard members to syria to train militia fighters from iraq, afghanistan, and ****stan to fight opponents of syrian dictator bashar assad's regime, reuters reported.

iranian state media described mousavi as a close companion of gen. qassim soleimani, the head of iran's elite quds force, who was slain in a us drone strike in iraq in january 2020.

iran-backed groups in yemen, lebanon, syria, and iraq have launched attacks on israel and its allies in support of hamas. clashes along the lebanon-israel border between hezbollah and israel have continued to intensify, with daily exchanges of missiles, airstrikes, and shelling across the frontier. in the red sea, attacks by houthi rebels in yemen against ships they believe to be connected to israel have disrupted trade and prompted the launch of a us-led multinational naval operation to protect shipping routes.

iran's president ebrahim raisi, in a statement, said that mousavi was "martyred while serving as an advisor for the resistance front, defending holy shrines in syria as well as safeguarding islamic ideals."

hossein akbari, iran's ambassador to syria, condemned the killing, saying that mousavi was in syria as a "formal military advisor."

"(israel) will definitely get a response to this crime at the right time and the right situation," akbari said, speaking from damascus.

Double bagger. HNY GLA

Best Xmas present ever - is unlimited growth So Happy tonight - which is divine and SHORTS ARE BURNING HAPPY NEW YEAR - HNY

Good post Robsroom - I was getting tired Nov 23 - time fading etc etc been 11 mths , after loosing Neptune deal but still on track with Zama. I did believe that Wintershall DEA was impossible - too big - thx for the reminder but still consistent EH- Still Backed HBR - At least you remembered my drivel.