Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
No Car legacy, no £100m contingent loan losses circa recent claims. I hope the legal action gets results and wack the twiiit - I'm very happy and prepared to wait. Looks like a very strong focus team of quality. GLA
I really like the granular disclosure - long overdue, right team IMO, this will go forward - after the cull Martin Lewis tweeeet
Strong cash & RD, No cash flight, very happy with matters, agreed with below comments, the scare mongering provided an opportunity over the next 18mths. In my industrial experience, the CEO does seem to have a very creative approach to turnaround (in his approach - laid out\0 with some strong branding to follow. Shame Martin Lewis held back the delivery. Allow the MM's to do their stuff, can't see mega reasons to go 2trillion short here, other tragic cases to concentrate on. GLA. Could have been so much worst listening to the -ve hype crew.
Well, you can't say they are hiding away from the current hiatus, I wish them all the best! If they're off Piste then they will be truly roasted and 3 hours is a long time in the dock, ask Donald! GLA No doubt an eventful day ahead.
Vanq\PFG sh'ers have endured a nightmare no doubt last 5-6 years. The fiasco of Door lending, out of control Satsuma, FCA £170m compensation, 2020 losses (£113m),a £330m rights issue and a hostile takeover from NSF. I think the current situation needs to be put in context of the magnitude of historical problems and the share price reaction. There's a difference between an ill judged comment and an out of control business building up badly managed debt & claims. The current SP and market Cap is by far the worst in recent history, without any substantiated contingent debt.
The spanner in the works (I hope) is the chaotic herd mentality of Martin Lewis frenzy, derailing the 2024 forecast. There was no comment on the Directors of substantiated claims running in millions relating to Credit Cards (Car loans is NIL). The auditors have certainly not flagged any issue.
The core business - Vanquis credit cards is worthy of its Net Asset statement IMO DYOR - circa £500m and is capable of earning +£100m pa NPBT. The current market reaction of a -60% collapse of the SP seems overdone, provided there are no unrealised material contingent liabilities. None were flagged in the Stat Accounts nor Interim statement. Vanq is a sitting duck at 51p, exposed to another takeover opportunity IMO DYOR.
No doubt the CEO misjudged the market by a country mile on the 11th March, however if tomorrow's presentation stands sceptical market scrutiny - the only way is up. IMO over the next 3 months - up it is, as the Lewis effect gets side lined by a single letter rebuff, cost postage. I'm obviously long, buying in on the way down, (could have down better with avg) but I don't have the evidence to commit to being short, I'm prepared to wait. GLA tmz. Fingers crossed for common sense tmz and get on with future trading. The CEO reiterated single digit ROTE for 2024 which is profits circa £40-45m. His bleeps are on the line.
Well, allowing for say £10m Martin Lewis admin disruption, other market inefficiencies for the press and set back news, a single digit ROTE would deliver NPBT between £40-45m, this would give rise to an EPS range 12-14p and a forward PE of 4. Barring any unforeseen hiccups, this is a cheap deal for Redwood, getting trading back to £120-50m NPBT within 2 years £+3-400m Cap profit, for little change. Simples. GLA
Counter claim Mary - see bits - MARTIN Lewis urged drivers to "forget about it" as he revealed a sure-fire sign you won't be handed £1,000s in compensation over the car finance scandal. The SUN
The financial services watchdog, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), is investigating thousands of allegedly dodgy deals spanning more than a decade in the car finance scandal.
Martin Lewis helpfully designed a complaint template for people to use, and it has now been accessed around 1,080,000 times.
The FCA has suggested around 40 per cent of finance deals could be affected - with an average payout of £1,100.
My honest view is if I were you at this point I'd fold up the piece of paper, put it in a drawer, get on with your life and forget about it."
Martin Lewis registers 1.2m complaints through car loan commission tool.
there has to be a remedy here surely. GLA He has to acknowledge aggravated losses caused by bad advice.?
Quote' Martin Lewis issues frank message to drivers seeking car finance compensation
The FCA is investigating whether lenders unfairly charged motorists discretionary commission arrangements (DCA) as part finance deals
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Martin Lewis has issued news to drivers about car finance compensation - and it might not go down well. He said that if car finance companies tell you that you won't get a payout this Autumn, it's probably true - and it's best to just move on with your life.
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is checking if lenders charged too much for certain types of car finance deals called PCP between 2007 and 2021. Drivers who got their cars on finance during these years need to complain soon if they think they paid too much.
Andy asked Martin Lewis on his BBC podcast: "I received an email a couple of days ago saying they've investigated the claim and found there was no discrepancy with regards to finance.
"Do I take that as that's the end of the claim or do I take it further for another investigation?" Martin Lewis said it's not likely that Andy will get any money from this check-up and suggested he shouldn't bother with another complaint.
What we are talking about here is the FCA's investigation into potentially systemic mis-selling of discretionary commission arrangements. Now for a regulated firm to say you didn't have a DCA - well first of all it's good news, you weren't mis-sold, you didn't have the commission taken in that way. I think it is unlikely that firms would lie about it given the extremely high level of regulatory scrutiny that they are under.
Of course, that doesn't preclude there being a data glitch but again I think it's unlikely. Having given you those caveats, my honest view is if I were you at this point I'd fold up the piece of paper, put it in a drawer, get on with your life and forget about it.
"I can't give you a categoric but that's what I would do if I was you."
What a txet!! kicking up this storm. FFS Now backing off!!
Last point - 2023 results, auditors and Directors Duty of proper disclosure of material matters affecting trading.
1. Vanq BOD had no other choice than issue a warning on claim processing costs.
2. Auditors are not is disagreement with 2023 forecast or any audit qualification.
3. The FCA probe went Martin Lewis 15th Feb ish after the 1st Feb RNS.
So to get hammered by a 60% SP fall on exceptional admin costs is unfair IMO. Clos Bros (Car Finance +20% of their book - the BOD have been complicit of poor commercial judgement and properly punished IMO DYOR.
Obviously shorts will ride the wave out and well done, GS are a sack of merde- we all know from a million other shares, not concerned about them. Let's hope that all this contrived anarchy has not derailed the company from its commericial goals.
Rushed all this, yes full of errors but needed to say it.
GLA - and yes no sauce other than HP FFS. I hope the BOD get vindicated for taking less risks than aired.
Vanq Contingent liability note.
14. Contingent liabilities
During the ordinary course of business the Group is subject to other complaints and threatened or actual legal proceedings (including class or group action claims) brought by or on behalf of current or former employees, agents, customers, investors or third parties. This extends to legal and regulatory reviews, challenges, investigations and enforcement actions combined with tax authorities taking a view that is different to the view the Group has taken on the tax treatment in its tax returns, both in the UK and overseas. All such material matters are periodically assessed, with the assistance of external professional advisors, where appropriate, to determine the likelihood of the Group incurring a liability. In those instances where it is concluded that it is more likely than not that a payment will be made, a provision is established for management’s best estimate of the amount required at the relevant balance sheet date. In some cases it may not be possible to form a view, for example because the facts are unclear or because further time is needed to properly assess the merits of the case, and no provisions are held in relation to such matters. However, the Group does not currently expect the final outcome of any such case to have a material adverse effect on its financial position, operations or cash flows.
This is correct in as much - there is no conflict with FCA , law or commercial practice. Vanq has been hammered by spurious claims, causing a profit warning.
Close Bros Contingent liability Note last set of Accounts - Contingent liabilities Motor Finance commission arrangements
The Group has received a number of complaints, some of which are with the Financial Ombudsman Service, and is subject to a number of claims through the courts regarding historic commission arrangements with intermediaries on its Motor Finance products. This follows the FCA’s Motor Market Review in 2019. Depending on the outcome of the court’s rulings and/or regulatory findings on the matter, these complaints and claims may give rise to a potential future obligation to compensate customers. It is not currently possible to estimate the financial impact, if any, or scope of these or any future related claims.
Close Bros flagging up a contingency yet to materialise. However, it has not provided and £400m capital raise to secure Balance Sheet on 19th Mar, when Van SP collapsed. Close SP down -60% since start of year and cancelled divi. real BOD ceck up IMO DYOR.
Firest, setting the record straight after - we all agree there is no FCA probe on Vanq. Secondly, affordability on credit cards: 2022 Stat accts
Other provisions include:
FCA investigation into CCD: £nil (2021: £4.1m) CCD was informed in Q1’21 that the FCA had opened an enforcement investigation focusing on the consideration of affordability and sustainability of lending to customers, as well as the application of an FOS decision into the complaint handling process, in the period between February 2020 and February 2021. Analysis of lending during the period of investigation resulted in a provision of £5m being recognised in H1’21 which reflected the current best estimate of the settlement, £0.9m of this was utilised in the second half of 2021. On 7 July, the Group received notification from the FCA that its investigation has closed and that no further action will be taken. Consequently this provision was released during H1’22.
FCA complete.
Quote - Jonathan Kolatch Bio, Returns, AUM, Net Worth
Located in Englewood Cliffs, NJ, Jonathan Kolatch's Redwood Capital Management primarily focuses on "distressed and stressed credit opportunities." Jonathan Kolatch has previously worked with Goldman Sachs in everything from credit arbitrage to corporate finance. He founded Redwood Capital in 2000.
Four Funds – Top of Class 2012
Tepper’s firm has $12 billion under management in four funds and separate client accounts. The funds are: the U.S. flagship Appaloosa Investment; offshore Palomino Fund Ltd., which was up 114.4 percent as of Sept. 30; and the offshore and onshore versions of the Thoroughbred fund, which rose between 83.5 and 95 percent, depending on when investors bought in.
All told, Tepper’s firm gained $6.5 billion through Sept. 30.
Like Tepper, many managers that scored high in Bloomberg’s ranking of top-performing funds sniffed out bargains amidst the detritus of the 2008 crash.
The $3 billion Redwood Capital Master Fund Ltd., run by Tepper’s fellow Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bond-desk alumnus Jonathan Kolatch, is No. 2, with a 69.1 percent return through Oct. 31.
Nothing more than research and Josey no sauce - just tired researching Redwood capital Man. Thank you. You protect your short.
Kolatch could swallow £100m Mkt Cap re-float it - a years time at £600m when rates down 1.5% - sitting duck, 72% owed by II's who are feed up, deal hear simples. Would not be short hear TOOO much money to be made on the up.
Watch Redwood.+ 20% Boom.
Teddy100, why isn't it falling? Where are all the loud mouth frogs today, spitting the end of the world yesterday? Where's the daily loss forecast? FFS = all FOS.
Well done my man for calling it - as it is. GL
I guess 35p, Mkt cap £88m, Net Assets £600m - 85% discount. Bonds not collapsed still above Oct 23. Waiting & watching.
Why would anybody short this. more importantly Mkt Cap, why not scrap it. I'll write to the LSE to not publish Mkt Cap. Unless there is an MBO and it can be funded easily by company assets. Stupid idea when SP is 20% of NAV.
What am I thinking? Any lower and Management should issue an RNS IMO.
Hey my mon, we're not stupid, don't need a schoolboy blow by blow account. All been here before and made cash. So good luck on your shorts - like all falling knives, secret is when it turns. At -70%, there upside growing. The risk increases for shorters as we drop per a day. I don't need to sell, never held them at £1.24, am invested elsewhere. I do have a position, did add today this afternoon, not my prime game here. GLA Guin, please comment on petrofac for fun and games. Thx.
EPL – Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) investments
Legislation will be introduced which aims to remove some of the tax barriers that arise from the repurposing of UK oil assets for use in CCS projects. Two matters are to be addressed:
• The introduction of relief for payments made by oil and gas companies into decommissioning funds; and
• The removal of certain receipts from EPL, described as “receipts from the sale of oil and gas assets which are repurposed for use in CCS”.
Well GTX 1 - just a word of advice - if you don't on them or are short admit it. If no interest f xxx off to somewhere you are invested. I don't want to hear caca torro from a nobody or zero position peep. Thx