Member Info for BaysilHope

No doubt mild recession - will be said Yoda, any China recovery will be supported by Cheap Russian thru back door oil, so neutral impact on POO. Russia will be hurting from sanctions and the cost of the war, plus the impact of reduced gas income designed to diminish Europe, especially before winter and hurt European public and split ECB, exerting Russian Global power thru its own media - just as more sanctions are being lined up - POO price cap. So the threats are ever increasing as you would expect.

POO is in a dance between Global downturn and the cut off of the 2nd largest O&G producer in the world. Which impact will be the greatest for the Global economy?!!! . If gas is anything to go by - its the latter. POO will react when Oil gets substituted for OIL in energy generation. LNG has limited world wide capacity. Andaman sea find could prove in the next few years a golden nugget as Indo existing LNG infrastructure is dormant and waiting to be used in a global context if assumed prospects are right. Asia is competing now to outbid ECB on LNG, Russian output could be black balled for years after war crimes, a sea change in investment could benefit HBR. GLA Russia is deliberately playing an unstable game to undermine the West. IMO DYOR. That will support POO & Nat gas so what will prevail - Global recession downside demand or the greater threat of unknown supply risks> IMO Supply risk will always outweigh demand issues in war time. Look at the U boats WW2. GLQA.

One certain thing SOL achieves through a depressed SP, is to RULE OUT issuing equity in any possible M&A scenario, so no EIG dilution, until the SP gets above £6.50 ish and then offers potential consideration value in any deal, with accretive potential. So HBR is restricted to trading Cash & Debt or asset swap in any potential M&A deal - next 6 months.

IMO DYOR ITV need to demonstrate its e growth path and cash generation can hit 4 cash markers in the H1 results:-
1. Generate cash sufficient to Fund existing and future increasing dividends
2. More than fund incremental content investment in ITVX - +£123m 2022 & £250m in 2023
3. Continue to reduce Net debt
4. Have sufficient FCF to make modest strategic acquisitions - such as Plimsoll.

Whilst growing the business. World Cup H2 should support the growth path. Operating cash flow H1 needs to be over £400m IMO and job done. GLA

Putin, great timing cuts ECB gas to 20% 5 days after sending 40% thru the pipeline and threatening any country enters the price cap - NO OIL we are not Near Winer Yet!!. And the UK govt want to FECK with WT on small O&G producers , especially when WT is inequitable for hedged profits below POO $75\ barrel same for Gas. Nuts. POO at $66 hedged Oil is NOT WINDAFLL Profits - clearly.

KWASI KWASI

Thx Pleebs, appreciate you info, Heads up and post. Good luck

I'm not subscribed to Euroclear but proof of the pudding would be a material reduction in SOL, then we have a meda turning point. Fingers crossed - still great news - crack on boys. Can anyone update the SOL position please? GLA

NSS I would not want to fight for freedom and Ukraine with you covering my back, let alone invest in a business. half this BB is full of caca torro and probably paid to walk this down in line with the SOL - me thinks many monkeypox victims and you protests too much IMO DYOR. I lusz the upside so sometimes give but the doubting games are a great stage play son. Ever been in conflict? Relied on another person for your life? Then you will understand. HNY GLA

National Grid has requested emergency permission to pump more gas to the stricken continent as Europe races to fill up stocks ahead of a difficult winter.
Wracked by a full-blown energy crisis, fuelled by Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine raging on and skyrocketing bills, operators have ramped up the capacity of British and Dutch pipelines as Europe braces for the cold months ahead.
National Grid has requested urgent increases on the 150mile Norfolk to Balgzand supply, with plans underway to export more than a third of usual levels.
European demand for gas has contributed to the UK's gas exports increasing 185 per cent from 2020 to 2021, reaching record levels of exports in April 2022.
Britain exports supplies to Europe during the summer months before turning into a major importer during winter, but it has already sent out record amounts of gas in recent months to help shore up European supplies.
'Enhanced resilience of supplies across Europe heading into the forthcoming winter can benefit the GB market by reducing likely demand for exports to Europe over the expected period of high demand from October 2022 as we move into the winter,' a spokesperson for the Grid said.
The news comes after the chief executive of energy giant Shell warned energy could be rationed in the UK if the Kremlin rails against sanctions by cutting supplies.

European gas storage levels remain significantly higher than this time last year (around 63%), but are still below their five year average. They are aiming to fill 80 per cent of their storage capacity by November 1.

Quotes from Upstream - On Timpan & Eni Krueng Mane offer.
Analysts at IHS Markit noted that Harbour’s Andaman Block holds early promise after drilling Timpan-1 and that other similar play targets within the block, based on pre-existing 2D seismic lines could be future drilling targets. The potential gas resource in the block is estimated at more than 6 trillion cubic feet, said IHS.
The first would be to sell the gas into the domestic market through the existing pipeline infrastructure. For this option, the gas would be exported through the Arun-Belawan gas pipeline to Medan, with the tie-in point likely to be the Arun LNG import terminal. Should the discovery size be 1 Tcf or less, this can be easily absorbed by the domestic market demand with imported LNG being displaced. A reliable source of domestic gas could also lead to induced demand from local industries and power sector. Additionally, development of the Dumai-Sei Mangkei pipeline could allow gas to flow further and access markets in the central and southern part of Sumatra,” IHS said in a note.
“The second option would be to sell the gas as LNG into international markets. This would require that the Arun terminal be converted back to an LNG liquefaction plant and export terminal. Alternatively, a new LNG liquefaction plant or even FLNG could be considered,” said the consultancy.

At a gas price of $5/MMBTU, Timpan will only require around 580 billion cubic feet of recoverable gas for the project to be economical, added the firm.

Eni is offering - Eni operates the Krueng Mane Block which contains the Jambu Aye Utara (JAU) gas discovery, but the Italian company has so far been unable to develop the discovery, that is estimated to have the potential to produce 120 million cubic feet per day of gas, due to high development costs. However, combining its development with potential new oil and gas discoveries in the region could make the economics of Jambu Aye Utara more attractive.

Timpan and Sangar are clusters (3 targets each) , looking at Krueng Mane it has 4 large prospects, Emerald, Safire, Ruby and BSN. on top of JAU all dwarf it. It's all about economies of scale - Unlikely to see first gas (IF) until 2026, but having BP & Mu multi national partners HBR is in a great place - if there is sufficient traction in the Play. GLa

t was “unacceptable and embarrassing”, said Sir Martin Sorrell in May, when the advertising firm S4 Capital finally announced its full-year numbers for 2021, that publication had been delayed twice. He could hardly say anything else. S4 is his fast-and-furious post-WPP comeback vehicle and he had just given investors a mighty scare over its ability to manage rapid growth – 29 agencies bought since launch in 2018.
Still, on the bright side, the 2021 numbers contained no nasties. By generating £687m in revenue, the company had almost doubled in size in its third full year. The finance operation would be “upskilled”, said Sorrell. The long-term goal of assembling a large and global digital-only advertising agency was intact.
And now this: a thumping profits warning on Thursday that sent the share price crashing 46%. Growth still isn’t the problem – but controlling overheads is. The statement cited “significant investment in hiring and consequent expansion of the cost base” as the reason why top-line earnings for this year are now forecast to arrive at £120m, versus the £160m-ish expected by the market.

Nobody leaves ITV its too cushiee

Wait! Where's my £3.20 at 15:31 FFs?

With many MM's on holiday, some kid on a keyboard is having a laugh with POO, I got sucked in last Thursday 35minutes too early to catch the bottom, which was 15:31 I think, POO did the 10% 2 day drop landing at $95 ish and recovered. I can sense it's another DBNO & SK day and I can feel their heat on the back on my neck, as I type.

I'm going to get my hair cut, eat earlier and after ECB Lagarde Castrophe, get the buzzer ready and Cinch it. GLA

Thanks Fib112, appreciated and not on filter, I can't get under this SP, it throws me off every time. Good luck and thanks for your post. I always read all your contributions, you are ahead of me on FTSE 100 demotion. Cheers.

Thanks romaron for your post, really appreciate it, I am finding it hard to get to grips with this SP, especially with all the turbulent macro economic factors happening in convergence, which can be very chaotic and volatile. Fingers crossed H1 results cannot come quick enough. Cheers BH

Apologises Fib112 I stand corrected - I thought the adjustment was quarterly. I'm wrong sorry, well posted you are correct. Back to bed - the heat. Thx for your posts.

HBR fall out of the FTSE tommorow? Je ne comprends pas - I thought it was a quarterly adjustment -
On July 18, Haleon will make its debut on the London Stock Exchange and join the FTSE 100 (UK100). The quarterly reshuffle last occurred on June 20 and led to the UK broadcaster ITV (ITV) and postal delivery group Royal Mail (RMG), both being ejected from the blue-chip share index. The next reshuffle will take place in September. Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director, explained to Capital.com in a interview in June: “The constituent lists of the major indices are set according to share prices from the close of business on the Tuesday before the first Friday of the review."
So, who is currently in the danger zone and at risk of demotion in September?

As of Friday 15, July, at the bottom of the leader board on the FTSE 100, with the lowest market cap, is Harbour Energy Plc (HBR). With a market cap of £2.8bn, Harbour may be at risk of leaving the FTSE 100 in the next reshuffle and making room for Haleon (HLN).
Back in May, Hargraves Lansdown analyst, Susannah Streeter predicted ahead of the FTSE Russell announcement that Harbour Energy Plc (HBR) maybe leaving the FTSE 100. It may not have happened in the June reshuffle, but it could be a contender to leave in September.
So IMO - today's volume is very important. GLA

+9.3m UT and 2 x 6.64 trades today at £3.53 and we are up - fingers crossed.

Putin Nord 1 - to open with 80% less gas 9was 60%) , that hits the Goldilocks range - not a Zero but doesn't allow Europe to refill gas pre Winter, the Charles wants to split Europe with energy rationing Winter time. This is a card you can only play once. Elevated gas prices for some ways methinks. GLA

Russia never turned the taps off during the Cold war , Vietnam, nor Charles & Diana's wedding or even Euro 2016, when Wales were awesome FFS. We are in for a hell of ride, buckle up. GLA.

I thought I understood macro economics, ECB faces Interest rate hike - maybe +50pts and Russian Gas could cut off - possibly causing -1.5% drop in Euro GDP RECESSION - energy rationing - which country by country Putin wants to divide Europe as winter approaches or at high heat and cause mass unrest and rioting next 3 months. China in Covid melt down, near shutdown - BOE looking at +50pt hike and US giggling at the next rate hike won't be 100pts but 75pts. Yet the S&P flies +100 pts in a not to oversold position. IMO Euro will fall - US$ strengthen and weaken commodities. Last Thurs 14th July - doom and gloom, worlds end, market mega risk off - only 3 trading days later Lucy in the Sky with diamonds.

The press is making bipolar a NORM, need to get out and water the plants, or did I see a triffid?! Mentaly

S&P 500 - Apple ?! Gazprom, Nord Stream 1 Force Maj, Heat wave Europe Water lows Germany river shipments, Low Gas stocks, China property & Builth Wells +35C cattle show - all bad. Why's everyone talking £3.48 Bull, Todays posts, must be off ITV Emmerdale - script FFS. When Fookie ramps I now short..