Member Info for BaysilHope

HBR are reaching Critical mass - operationally and in cashflow generation , where they can finance expansion, reduce debt, reward shareholders and pursue M&A oppos. What's not to like!?

Come Liz - beat the Taxing Rishi and reduce WT (Not eliminate) legacy for a fairer tax with Hedged output. HNY

Simples.

Pleebs, this SOL for July will be a very important number, hopefully a reduction, knowing my luck a build. please post any info next week. GL. last point, looking at Ukrainian resistance in Russian occupied parts of the East- this could be Russia's Vietnam. GLA

Thanks Nightpusher, the Sept thing was the press, I bow tou your clear engineering knowledge and my business operational experience would lead me to agree with you. Yes corrosion, yet old equipment hence the £2bn price tag that can't ebe expensed immediately. Lead times for key supplies and engineered replacements. I think the press were trying to spread a bit of a relief story. Totally agree with, so UK Gas pants are right on the floor. How the FECK in in charge of UK energy management, with no built in safety or marginal buffers.

Still go to see positive info again being posted, except for Mancini, or One Flew.. HNY GLA

Or are we short!! No wonder this SP won't rise, always sold into - even by our own. What a change from yesterday - blame SK- every time. Where's DBNO when Brent's $108. I think the market is slowly getting to grips with the size and scale of the Russian threat., the impact will get worse as we approach winter. GLA

Well Well - come on LIZZY - LIZZY

Profit forecast for the Full year EBITDA +£850m, ITV funded the Divi, ITVX and neutral FCF, which would have been +ve (Actual -11m) if not for an additional £100m pension contribution. Stronger second half to come and solid progress on all fronts - EPS 2022 should be 16p giving a PE ratio of SUB 5 for what is certainly NOT a failed business model. When the shorts close, this should re-rate to a PE of 7-8 reflecting a successful business transition into a growth business next 2-3 years and a 7% yield.

Downside risks flagged at Q1 - successfully countered by solid trading - even recessionary fears and squeezed household expenditure, not enough credit given IMO DYOR. Well done the BOD. Onward and upward in time. Others won't far so well. IMO ITV DERISKED. GLA

Speaking in Leeds, she said: "What I believe is we need to keep taxes low to attract investment into industries,’ she said. “We need to turbocharge investment into the North of England, bringing more businesses and opportunities. "The best way to do that is to keep taxes low and attract that investment into our great towns and cities, and that's what I'm focused on."
"What we also need to do is make sure we produce more domestically produced gas, so that we are able to increase supply and keep prices as low as possible, and that's really important as we head to net zero, using gas for our transition."

LIZZY LIZZY - THATS A GIRL - Then we fly.

UK is going to need Centrica to re-open rough gas storage facility PDQ - Cost?
Reports suggest Rough could cost £2 billion to reopen, but could be up and running by September.
Centrica has previously put forward £1.6bn plans to transform the facility to hold low-carbon hydrogen fuel, saying a repurposed Rough “has the potential to provide around half of the UK’s hydrogen storage requirements”.

Still I agree profits look mega high whilst we suffer high bills. Hence hedge with HBR. GLA

Yes SK, Russia is a garage economy, when the west moves on and counters their various economic threats next 12-18 months , Russia is heading towards North Korea, Iran status and isolation but with Nukes. Our only hope is the younger generation of Russians have their OWN MIND!! Yes in the West we are fed Caca torro, yet we still have freedom of speech - Jeremy Corbyn. HNY -

IMO - I think pre Ukraine conflict - Russia ='s fear - it was up against an unstoppable Western advance set against a divided Russia. This could be Putin's battle of the Little Big Horn, or Rorke's drift - danger is the red suicide button.

world needs a leadership change in the USSR asap.

I saw that go through yesterday, why are they selling now? I know- to pay the charity's admin fees and corporate entertainment FFS. The quicker these EIG cretins feck off the better. Annoying to say the least.

Last point, the LOSS of Russian Gas & Oil revenue from the closure of the European market, IMO will be more than compensated (In Russia's objectives) IF measured by the Global economic damage inflicted i.e inflation energy & food, fuel global recession and particularly in Europe - strike at the heart of the enemy. Cause maximum disruption for ECB civilians (Fuel rationing - higher bills, FOOD poverty) and apply max pressure to splinter ECB members, weaken resolve for the ongoing war and its ever decreasing affordability.

I think Russia could be for 'All in now' , as Ukraine conflict looks likely to be (sadly) prolonged. If Russia is going to become economically divorced, max the pain, hurt and suffering to the enemy. I honestly hope I'm wrong on this. However, Russia's recent history suggests that - Russia starved 2-3 million Ukraine civilians in the 20's and unfortunately life is cheap in their eyes. ECB, USA, UK & Nato need a medium term plan now. GLA I'll shut up now.

Press quote:-
Warning of worse to come as UK gas costs surge due to Europe supply crunch

Growing fears Russia may switch off supplies of natural gas to Europe have pushed UK wholesale prices to levels last seen in the early days of the war in Ukraine, with a market expert telling Sky News there is worse to come.
The contract for next-month UK delivery was more than 12% higher at one stage on Wednesday after flows from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which provides more than a third of Russian gas to the EU, were cut to 20% of capacity from 40%.
Warning of worse to come as UK gas costs surge due to Europe supply crunch.
While Russian gas only accounts for 4% of UK supplies traditionally, a lack of storage combined with many other factors including stable North Sea output during the warm months of low demand has allowed the country to help its neighbours on the continent by exporting gas at record volumes.

There will switching from Nat Gas to Oil for energy - definitely in the run up to winter.

Shirley, in light of this worsening supply crunch and price surge backdrop, SOL & other Shorting instruments must be looking at an orderly queue for the exit and EIG holders wanting to ride the profitability wave and grow the SP. 20 trading days to clear down IMO DYOR. HNY GLA

Spot on Pleebs, keep stum and max pressure. The last lobby produced change, Decom was allowed to be set off WT. With regard to forecast Capex 2022-25 £6bn!!
Quote HBR & Press releases:-
Harbour Energy and Eni are set to invest more than £8 billion in the UK over the next four years, as the sector continues to bat away calls for a windfall tax on energy profits. Eni intends to invest more than €2.5 billion (£2.1bn) over the next four years, while Harbour has a reported £6bn earmarked for further North Sea upstream activity over the next three years, according to the Financial Times.
Harbour's total capex (production, development, exploration and decommissioning) for the first quarter was c.$160 million. Harbour's full year 2022 total capex guidance of $1.3 billion is unchanged with the majority of the spend in the UK. This is an increase of c.40 per cent when compared to capex levels in 2021.
Decommissioning costs are included in HBR Capex figures and will qualify for relief.

So there is massive wriggle room to mitiagte Wt impact, better still get more concessions. yep FCF unbelievable!! Can't wait H1 and if Equinor are anything to go by - brill BP next week will be interesting but will stoke up WT support, hence meet before Q2 mega Oilers results.

Thanks Auson, the reason i thought of it is they are all related obviously. The EIG crew knew Noble would cash in back at the time they took out the SOL in April. So easy money for those in the know, I could not work out what size holding they had. So yes, please post your enlightened thinking as news is out, Cheers. Good Luck.

Auson, you know your stuff, there has to a time, at a point in the future where this downside pressure will ease and then the SOL should reverse and substantially reduce creating an upside - especially when HBR results are published and more and more fundamental accretive business gains are made and published. Or are we cursed with this lot indefinitely?

I was daft enough to dream that the Noble wind down could be matched by a conveniently timed SOL reversal and negate the overall impact on the SP. Surely not.

Thank you Soder - more importantly for outlining the maths calcs. Really appreciate your time. I've copied this - never to miss it again. Cheers. I know - you know your stuff. BH

Can someone clarify - UK Nat Gas 390p per therm whats the $Boe price - anyone please. my chart says 55.5 therms to 1 boe. But I'm no expert on gas. Thanks.

Quote - Hezbollah issues threat against Karish’s September start
Hezbollah head Hassan Nasrallah has issued a new threat to Israel’s activities offshore, including around Energean’s Karish development.
Hezbollah launched three reconnaissance drones in the direction of Karish early this month. Israel destroyed all three. Now that's pretty serious in an oil field but they have no WT!!! . Energean shares up.

We have EIG - POO +$100 Nat Gas +500% yet the power of the Dark Side prevails. Over 6 months were are down, energean up 20% on 'Potential production and NOT actual. . Couldn't fing make it up. Never will invest anywhere where there is a growing SOL again - thats the power of the force - negative energy!...

jeff I apologise - just in future name the guilty - good luck. New slogan - Best place to be - O&G - that's a new rap.

jeff, Jeff JEFF FFS - This is what I said son - Copy & paste 14th july after the attack -' No One of you laddies mentions Global DEPLETION OF OIL & GAS RESERVES FFS = Next few weeks - yes DBNO get your shorting game plan - but world Oil depletion is a greater SUPPLY THREAT than demand destruction. Running at Global 5% Minimum and no new mega fields last 5-7 years. Then take Russia off line - which will happen by end of year and any PI needs An OIler exposure with high yields - End Quote . Genius unrecognised yet again....

Said F All about global recovery - Only that NO ONE on hear gives reference to DEPLATION ON TOP of Russia war games - even KSA Ghawar Oil field suffers from depletion and that's their largest field - maybe why KSA is hiding spare capacity. Oil-traders are concentrating on the SPR release by USA and forgetting DEPLETION IS THE KILLER AT 5% PA WITHOUT REINVESTMENT AND CRITICAL LEAD TIMES - NEVER MIND WINTER.. Global recession will take time to take effect same time as depletion kicks it - ZERO SUM GAME - cancelling each other out. Bloomberg full of ****e. Luzzin it.

See jeff before you spin caca torro, beware the unprepared. HNY FFS Go back and hide.