Member Info for Batfasted

Poker
Well spotted. It seems Jedclampit said on 24th May that he needed an SP of £7.50 to break even. Since then, he has been saying incessantly that the SP is going down to £2.50. So one would think he should sell his holding now at above £3.00 and then make a smaller loss and hence to cut his losses. He could then clear off to bother others on a different board.

Thank you Poker and Oogle. You have helped to explain the reasons for the low SP.
I have a very large holding in Saga and I am staying invested until the price recovers to a realistic level.

Poker
How can this business have a worth of less the £420M when it’s annual PBT is anticipated to be £200M?
Do you think this is reasonable?

Thanks Beach. Certainly agree that things don’t feel right. Why would the SP be this low taking into account all we know about prospects etc. Where is the consortium who thought this was a good takeover target for them at 33P?

Beach. What did Emily say?

Without doubt, Saga would be an attractive takeover target at this price. I think that is the reason for the low price.

Hi Beach. If there are institutions selling, why aren’t there large volumes of shares in the sold figures?

Hi Banbury
Does this mean that the PBT for a whole year will be say £60m from cruise plus insurance (£70m half year x2 for full year) = £140m giving total PBT of £200m? If so, this is fantastic so why do you think the SP so low and falling?

Fair dealer
What usually happens when a Company’s current assets are valued at less than their current liabilities?

Hi Unhooked.

Rox is correct.

I have pasted a section from one of Rox previous posts which explains the situation based on the change in the number of shares in issue causing a dilution at the time of consolidation.

Stage1
1,122,003,328 (1.1 BILLION) shares BEFORE dilution.

Stage2
2,093,921,536 (2.1 BILLION) shares AFTER dilution.

Stage3
139,594,769 (140 MILLION) shares AFTER 15:1 Consolidation.

If we simply divide the new share price by 15 (which most people here do) this will convert it to the mid stage2 completely ignoring the extra billion shares. It needs converting AGAIN (effectively doubling) to get back to the ‘OLD’ share price Stage1.

The easy answer is to miss out Stage2 and either divide or multiply the share price by 8.04 to get the ‘OLD’ or ‘NEW’ share price depending of course which one you start with or are after.

1,122,003,328/139,594,769 = 8.04

Selecta & Robleo. Don’t you think the announcements due on 22nd September will have any effect on the SP. Everybody else is eagerly awaiting the announcements from which they expect a significant SP increase. DYOR.

Thanks Beach. I totally agree with you. It is the only plausible reason that I can see for this fall in the SP in advance of an expected good set of interim results and very positive trading update. These shares were trading at over £30 (£2 x 15) each in 2017 and apart from The Covid risk seem to be in a better position now according to all the news we hear. Some people on this BB believe that the SP might recover to £12 and I too think this could happen. However, I am a complete amateur in respect of the stock market and valuations so DYOR.

Hey Beach. What do you mean? Should we be buying or selling?

Yes. I agree it is boring. However I am suspicious that there must be a reason for the falling SP and it isn’t caused by any news that we have heard. Is it possible that the SP is being deliberately reduced in advance of the expected very positive interim results and trading update?

Hi Millionaire
I thought interims and trading update are due on 22/09 (not 9th). Am I wrong?

Hi Fordy
The Italian Charms cruise due to depart 15/08 did not proceed due to the virus causing uncertainty about the resumption of international cruises at that date. An announcement was made on 14 July and the cruise was replaced with 3 smaller cruises around the British Isles which are ongoing.

Hi TheFarEnd.
100M shares floating is a large proportion of those issued (140M) and so I would expect less volatility than we are seeing and consequently a lower Beta value. I would welcome your view on this.

Beach
I don’t think we know the date of interim results in 2021 but it was 10th Sept in 2020 and 19th Sept in 2019. So I guess will be around that date.

The fall in SP since 23/06 is similar to the fall on 02/09/2020 which preceded the corporate transactions that led to a rapid increase in the SP. Just saying.

More shares bought than sold today. Price should increase. So not oversold. We will see soon.