Member Info for Batfasted

Hi Spights
Please could you explain to me what benefit you think there is for someone to take a short position on a stock that is already significantly undervalued? It seems to me that the effect of taking a short position would mainly benefit the shorter if the share was overvalued.
I would also be very interested in Pokerchips’ view of this as he seems to have a very good understanding of such things.

I thought JedClampit was crazy when he kept suggesting the SP might drop to 250. He came in for a lot of stick for suggesting it. It just shows how crazy this market is.

The biggest clue that the SP will be increasing soon is that RDH invested £1M at a price of 292.9 in November. He clearly believed that it was good value and therefore so do I.
Good Luck all.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/saga-share-price-hit-400p-112021880.html

Cheers Poker.

Hi Poker
Is it true that there are redundancies and when was this announced? I hadn’t seen any news on this.

Great anecdote Rogue. Why do you think the SP has been falling? Is it shaking the tree again?

My guess is 315.4 based on a 12% rise tomorrow.
I think it might reach 400 by end of July.

I do not understand these figures. in particular does anybody know why the 2022 revenue and earnings figures are so low. They appear to much lower than those of Banbury, our own brilliant analyst. I would welcome your view on this Banbury.

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=SAGA:LSE

Hi Banbury
I trust you have had a great Christmas with your new bride. Congratulations to you both and wishing you a happy and prosperous New Year. From reading your posts I am pretty convinced that it will be a very prosperous 2022.
Please could you tell me the criteria for the York trip? Is it £5 SP?

Poker. Sorry can’t find that page on Saga website but is shown on other website https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SAGA-PLC-16546285/company/.

Little Grandma
Yes. You are right. The close period will start after the year end (31/01) when the directors know the figures and this will end when the results are public in early April. Sorry about my earlier incorrect post.

Another significant point is that the purchase signals that the chairman has no knowledge of any imminent takeover approach. Otherwise he wouldn’t be permitted to purchase the shares.
Overall I think we are left with a low SP that we can expect to improve when the results are announced and/or when the Covid situation improves.

Significantly this purchase is announced 2 months before the annual results and is therefore coincident with the start of the Close Period. It is the last opportunity for insiders to purchase shares before the results become public. This signals that the Chairman is expecting a share price increase after the results which is what we are all hoping for. I suppose this is obvious but I thought I would point it out anyway.

Jed
You said “… first this could have been the reason why the SP was taken down so much a few days ago as clearly the broker was trying to get hold of stock…”
This would have had the opposite effect. If the market maker needed stock, the price would go up.

Poker
This is the same impression as I have but how do you know for sure?

Hi Rox
So when do you think the next bid is coming?

Rox
What Rupans is saying is that the consortium making the takeover would have had to pay 33P per share to buy the shares and they would have had to pay a further £150M (£140M + £10M costs) to pay down the debt and thereby get the Company into the same balance sheet position. Rox you are right as far as your argument goes but you do not consider the debt position.

Hi Jed
The SP is now well below the price (33P before consolidation) offered in the rejected takeover approach 18 months ago. Since then the prospects for this business have been significantly improved and £150M of additional capital has been added. In my humble opinion, this now must be a very attractive takeover target for the same or any other consortium. The only factor against this being attractive is the uncertainty of the current Covid situation. I don’t know how it can be done but I think it is possible that interested parties could depress the SP in order to reduce the cost of their planned takeover. Of course my post is pure speculation on my part for the sake of debate and not intended to persuade anybody of my view. What do you all think?