Member Info for baronbog

ATAT
Strongly suggest you go back and take a maths refresher course!!

Falky
I’m worried about you. You seem all over the place recently. Are you ok?
Do you mind me asking what age you are? Seriously, a lot of your posts in last few months make no sense or seem to contradict your earlier ones. It may be advisable to have a check up with your doctor.
Some of your older posts were good and you seem to have a sixth sense for the direction of the market but recently…

Yes, I agree and it’s the modus operandi EDF employ … building, owning and operating (albeit with a crap design which now turns out to have big flaws and their unbelievable construction cost overruns) with a government guaranteed minimum price for electricity for decades into the future. The whole point of RR SMR is a much lower cost of electricity produced (compared to the huge nuclear plants), virtually no construction risk because they are mostly built in factories and lower risks for backers with capex of only £2B versus £20B. Why this government doesn’t just get its finger out and get this moving, is a mystery.

SullyWorld
“ Does anyone know after the initial build what kind of money RR would make from keeping these SMR's running, ….)
I’ve asked this many times including of RR personal. It appears they have no interest in operating the plants atm, (one of their shareholders in the SMR subsidiary is the biggest operator of US nuclear plants) but I believe they will provide services to plants.
I honestly think they are missing a trick here. Lots of pensions funds etc, infrastructure finance companies etc I expect would happily fund rr to own and operate (at least the uk ones) and I’m sure it could all be done off balance sheet. What a prospect … long term stable predictably profits with little risk …

I’ve asked this question before. What happens to share prices if Putin uses a small nuke to try take out Zelenskyy & the Ukrainian high command in Kiev? Or even first tests out one of his nukes in the Russian arctic to see if his nuclear arsenal actually passes quality control?

TFE’s post last night at 00.12 - 30 recommends, is that a record?

Golly Falky, with statements like that you have all the traits of a good politician.

Ever think about standing?

Bloomberg headline - Jeremy Hunt planning tax raid on banks!!

lol, using JTT's predicted share price, then £36,500 taking account of CGT at 20%, excluding optional extras, chauffeur, electricity, insurance, vandalism or Labour winning the next election.

My understanding is (thought I stand to be corrected) there are two FX matters, Transactional and Translational (page 6).
Transactional is where the hedges are. The RR hedges are, I believe, contracts to exchange $ for £ at an average rate of $1.53 for £1, at set dates in the future. They have $21B of these contracts (some are $:€) coming due over the next 4/5 years. In simple terms, at todays rates that is a £5.88B potential hit over the next 4/5 years!! New accounting rules require them to publish a figure at the end of an accounting period as if they had to close all contracts at that date. ie mark to market. This figure has no impact on cashflow until the contracts actually expire. At the 30th June they list, on page 5 the cashflow impact of these contracts closing over the next 4/5 years. For 2022 based on the FX rate then, it is expected to cost them £326M. 2023 £389M, 2024 £321M etc. The total they give is £1.674B. A sum that could effectively wipe out the total cash from the IPT sale.
All this is based on the FX rate for H1 2022 but the FX rate has got significantly worst since then (10%?). (That's 10% of £21B!!) So you can see why some analyists are very negative and some hedge funds are shorting the shares. Some commentators say the dollar still has more strength to go from here (against a basket of currencies), while STG is expected to weaken.

Strike123
RR website link I posted before. As I said earlier all the sh** in hidden in the appendices!!
Go to pdf - 2022 Half year results - Appendices - page 5
Also gives the impact of closing the hedges over the next 4 years based on the exchange rate on the 30 June ... cable has got a lot worse since then!!

PSK
I find it confusing too and I think it is intensional. Everybody is talking about new military sales, SMRs, new maintenance contracts, flying hours etc while the real action on whether this company is profitable or not, revolves around their disastrous hedges and the 'smoke & mirrors" in their accounts. I'd love to get the opinion of some accountants on here?

Lots of people on here would do well to actually read the results and accounts on the rolls royce website than listen to Motley Fools, Mike / RR b/s. Seriously, no point debating what supposed analysists say if you haven't read the company's own accounts first ESPECIALLY the notes & appendices (that's where they hide all the sh**)

https://www.rolls-royce.com/investors/results-and-events.aspx

sundezena

DYOR??? Have you done your research?
Do you know that RR hedged $21 billion GBP:USD at an average rate is £/$1.53
Each 1$ cent change in the £/US$ hedge rate impacts u/lop profit and cash by £25-30m?
So making statements like yours makes you look foolish!!

MC866

RE: Don't buy yet or AVG down yet? This is just beginning.Today 10:55
Is there an option to get someone banned for giving flagrantly wrong, awful, dangerous advice again and again.
"Keep buying"?? You're literally off your rocker.

MC866, well done for consistently calling out that nutter, RR / Mike!! Many other deluded****** on here have being recommending his posts or thinking he/she adds welcomed positivity?!?! (though there is the possibility he/she is just using his/her other usernames to do so).
You are certainly doing good work warning inexperienced investors new to this board, though imo you are wasting you time engaging directly with this poster or reporting to him/her. If banned, he/she will just pop up with another new username.
Would be interesting to know though if he/she is a troll, mentally unwell, bored, in denial about his losses on this share, or just looking for mischief as others expense.
Anyway keep up the good work.

What happens to the SP if Russia uses a small nuke on Kiev?

Time to filter Mike’s new profile, he’s a nutter lol

Suggest you re-read my original post. City traders, in the same way they have rolled down the sp of RR. over the last 9 months, are always looking for an excuse to inflict volatility on the markets. Tree shake. It will be mostly forgotten in a week or two. Do you honestly believe that little olde Britain’s tax cuts/energy cap has caused a worldwide sell off? Are we that important, … hold that much sway on world markets? Also bear in mind that September/autumn are the most common times for a correction.
I’m 60% invested atm. This is my 4th recession but also the first time I’m very nervous of going all in. Russia is backed into a corner and could easily launch a small nuke on Kiev. I don’t believe that would cause a world war but if you think todays sp in bad, guesses welcome how low the markets would go. Equally we have to stand firm on Russia as it will be much worse in the future, if he gets his way blackmailing us with using nukes.
Lastly the forthcoming recession, while sharp, will be over relatively quickly. Did anyone really believe there would be a happy ending to all the money printing and zero interest rates going on around the world over the last 14 years?

Of course we’ll get our money back (assuming a reasonable buyin price) and a decent profit too. But I don’t loose the plot shouting about conspiracies within the government, when the sp tanks.
All shares are a gamble … even the ft100 ones. Are you new to investing?
Re IMF - please read my previous post
Re Moodys - were you around for the GFC? And you put faith is what Moodys say? Golly … and you called me naive.

Strike, your conspiracy theories are laughable. Are you anti vax too?
I know lifetime record paper losses must be very stressful for you and ppl under severe pressure can become irrational, poor decision makers and unpredictable but you really do need to take personal responsibility for you our decisions. When you gamble in the casino that is the British stock market, you are happy to be a capitalist when you’re making money but woe betide when you are taking losses … tax the rich … there’s a conspiracy to steal my money … it’s the government’s fault. You sound like a champagne socialist.
Lastly when you get over using plagiarised sound bites like trickle down economics don’t work, you might be surprised by the fact that since corporation tax was first reduced in the mid 2000s (by a labour gov incidentally), and on subsequent occasions, CT tax receipts have corresponding gone up. Stick to facts mate, and stop with your populist whinging!! Be glad you have the money to gamble with on the stock markets and thankfully to Blair/Brown and the Tories.