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@jj
I could agree with you. however, not sure that time for bonds holders is to get high return on investment now rather then securing their asserts. D4E is an option but not at a massive dilution of shares.
Fundamentally, TCG is undervalued on the market now...1.2B Debit is almost secured with the airline assets. however, current market valuation doesn't reflect the real value of TCG and this why I think it will not be a massive dilution specially with the turks and Russian in now with an average of 8-12p.
Fosun and NK can guarantee any new facilities with banks to keep TCG trading and BOD need to renegotiate debit and interest terms. without that it's a spirale and they will end up in the hand of Fosun or NK or may be both of them
Pearls: Usually I don't comment on people views but I will do it this time ( Friendly) :)
if you are a bond holder what's the most important for you? getting back your many or insure that lenders can still pay interest? or write-off ?
I think bond holders have all the interest to discuss with anyone that can bring a solution to keep business and their interest secure including NK. Remember bond holders are not interested in taking over the business ...all what they want to cash back their money.
As a said many times.. no panic.. if you are a short / med terms investor your will have your reward. don't expect a huge raise in the coming weeks unless a big news coming or a deal finalized.
my humble analysis:
* Turks and Russian are not here for nothing buying at 9-12 in average
* Fosun are preparing the takeover but they need now to integrate a new parameter ( turks and Russian)
* This guys will not get in and buy all this shares without having a full support of their banks
* Option for massive dilution of shares for me is over now at least for now. Turks, Russians and Fosun will never allow that.
* The battle will take months to agree a final exit ( remember ClubMed)
* The SP will fluctuate within 8-13p for weeks from now until a sustainable news is released
* TCG to go Admin is absolutely out of scenario now.
* People saying why turks and Russian are not buying bonds. fair point, but doing that means you have a non friendly approach and therefore no constructive discussion could be made with BOD or others parties ( Fosun).
* Knowing Russian and Turks ( worked with them for a many projects) they will never get in if they don't have a green light from a big deciders in their countries.
This is my humble contribution and only engage myself. make your decision based on your personnel exposure and investor profil.
NB: negative more than 20K with an average at 13.91 but I will keep my shares and I'm not selling unless 18 or 20p
how L2 looks like?
thanks E_AL let's hope a blue trend today ..even smaller ..the big one is coming.
L2? How it looks like?
No panic an offer is coming or news probably in September . this people don't get in without a plan Russian / Turks buys around 8-9 you think they don't know that possible dilution of share if Fosun take over? are they stupid to loose millions in a couple of months? I don't think so.
just don't panic and sell this SP is around 20p in September
any change on L2?
JJ that's right that's why I'm saying turnover... margin is driven by the performance of the management team and the actual team of TCG is bull****...looks at their booking platform and you will understand how far they are in terms of digital transformation. TCG has a very good potential they have control on all the chain --> distribution network --> own airline--> own hotels so they will be able to keep very good margin with some smart guys on the BOD ( witch's not the case today).
if there's a good cost killing they will perform very well. this is what the turk saw because he's coming from the industry and knows the constraints of such business.
Thanks E_AL keep us posted.
I appreciate all the help and information in this forum although some posts are very negative and I don't like accountants who talks BS only. a business that make 9B a year should be valuated more even with this debit.
at our level if I have to take over a business that generate 90K turnover a year with a debit of 10.3 K and a solid market reputation and good market positioning I will do.
How L2 looks like? don' have access with my broker overseas
Hi,
I'm back again on this crazy SP. Guys no panic it will finish blue today.
you think that the lovely turk will put all this money in shares without a solid plan? Even you get a lot of money you don't risk such amount without having a plan.
@Amers: may be i'm dreaming but this is the foundamentals.
else, a part news about recapitalisation and so on what foundamentals has changed compared to last month 15 or 18 p ?
if i follow you means we buy an over valuated company at this price and market is so stupid then? is that correct?
I agree. i'm more in favor that discussion will collapse. Going private has a very large implication and can be with different scenarios. i don't think lenders want to own the company, it's not their job, what they want get money back and potentially with Benefits.
Fosun can take it private but remember how it goes for ClubMed when they buy it. honestely, no ones knows at this stage what will be the outcome but for sure something is under preparation that's why Q3 outlook was not published to do not give any insight on what's going on. BOD probably are negociating their exit package ( for me theses guys are a complete loosers as they didn't see the market mutation and aggressive strategy of web holiday package sellers. TCG still got too much fixed cost with store and too many employees ... only people 55 years and more are going to a store to buy a package else is on the web.
let's wait and see, i get prepared already to loose all but i think there's a good chance to see TCG on the 15p for the next quarter if no deal happened in between.
Soutar,
if they take TCG private means there's an offer for actual SH? isn't?
Guys,
Even i'm quite new in this forum, i would like to make a humble contribution.
i'm holding a quite few TCG share with an average of 13.91p showing a loss of almost 17K now. but i'm not selling and i hope you are not selling too.
Some facts:
+TGC Brand will not disapear --> Else Fosun will loose more, remember that they have majority in TCG China. It's not in their interest to have TCG going Admin that will make customer afraid and will not help the business in the other part of the world.
+ Banks are not idiots : they will block Fosun if they will see that it will impact their bond value.
+ Almost 20% of SP on the market are pivate investors means 80% by institution --> do you think they will let things goes like that and have their share diluated.
+ SP will increase in September, TGC can't hold publishing Financial outlook for too long. Else LSTE will remember them that they have some obligations in front of the SH and the market if they still want to trade.
+ my recommendation : i know it's a gambling but loosing 70% with no chance is not acceptable. i'm ready to loose 100% but with a chance to get 100% of my investment even in 2 or 3 years.
+ My analysis : in 1 or 2 Months you will have the BOD coming and say --> after an internal evaluation of the FOSUN offer and in order to maximize value for our SH bla bla bla we decided to look for other alternatives ( Airline sell). Airline bidders are on the starting blocks, they are keeping pressure now as they know TGC is in a stress situation, banks will finally give another credit facility for the winter operations with re-organisation of priorities on lenders positions.
this is my humble contribution and sorry for my English if it's not that good.
TCG will will not go in admin.... if it comes to that you can say goodbye to TCG as no one will book anymore with them. I don't know who advise TCG BOD on communication but they are really not good at all.
make an annoucement of recap in the middle of the summer is a big mistake --> many customers will change their holiday provider eventough they know they are insured.
Citi are playing a dirty game to make this deal the better for their customer ( Fotsun)...they will keep pressure on the SP until the deal is finalized.
The BOD needs to leave soon... new BOD will give more confident to investors.
Thanks.
that's means no news for the market and hence no expected move up for the SP except the talk with Fosun witch i believe will not be finalized before Sep or Oct --> if this deal went through then we are done.
Thanks.
that's means no news for the market and hence no expected move up for the SP except the talk with Fosun witch i believe will not be finalized before Sep or Oct --> if this deal went through then we are done.
Is the Q3 results still planned on the July 18th?
Hi, I'm new in this chat and i'm very pleased to see all this comments about TCG SP.
my opinion TGC SP will stay in a range of 8-13 until a new news is coming out.
Q3 result will have an effect on SP up to 20p.
Airline sales if the deal is finalized will take SP to 35 -50 p
if no deal TGC will not collapse, too big to fall and if Fotsun is taking the TO business the valuation of SP without airline is arround 40p ( TGC brand only have a value of more then the actual market value)
this is my point of view ( my current average is 13.95 and i'm not selling) even if it drop to 8.
Big fishes are making money on the emotional behaviour of investors, nothing justify that TGC will collapse even with this big debt. ask yourself one question value of SP was 85 when debt was 900M why it should be 0 SP when it's 1.5b? knowing that cost saving will bring an expected saving of 200M a year.
that's was my humble contribution guys....