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So how did my little prediction go? Well I said open at 24.5, we opened at 24.75, but dropped to 24.5 within the 1st hour. I said a low of 22.5, the low was 23.5, well I guessed it would go down, but I am not complaining it didn't go as low as I predicted. I said a high of 26. Well got that wrong. I was tautologically right about the close, i.e. somewhere between the high and low. Think I will have to be honest and score this reading of the runes as a 3/10 effort.!
In answer to question raised earlier, if we breach the 50 dma it could indicate that longer downward trend. I wouldn't panic yet though. I wouldn't think a continued downward trend could be predicted on the back of dipping below the 50 dma for one day. Also this share moves on news and expectation of news. Further, the most recent low was 22.5 which looks like a minimum support level and we didn't breach that today. I would say this is a time to keep some dry powder back and top on the dips.
For shame :( :(
If I had the funds though I would probably top up.
Also I suspect this has been blown out of proportion as well, so those with the funds to top up could very well be smiling next week!
Good luck all.
I liked bananaman too, can't blame him he played a good game, he took a risk, realised that doubling his money was a good result (let's face it it objectively is) and walked away with his profits (the timing of his selling might indicate that he used charts too). More importantly he hasn't been back trying to deramp to get back in, but just moved on to the next thing.
Grace, sorry to hear that our mutual friend may not be in a good place right now, hopefully focusing thier energy somewhere else other than lse BBs will allow them to get back on an even keel.
I think a target of 28 to 29p is about right over the next week or two. Broadly I would agree with iceman in the broader brushstokes and overall view, it why I would view my own critism nit picking. However I would like to ponit out that there hasn't been a doji of any discription since 14/9/20. Also I pay attention to wick length, personally I get very excited by a marubozu (we actually saw one of those 22/9/20). It's great that iceman is making serious posts and making forecasts on a time scale in which they could be accurate and that those forecasts are based on evidence that people can review for themselves. The key ponit of course is that even a credible forcast does not mean you can skip doing your own homework, I also hope people are googling the chart terms themselves.
Sorry I have to say I am a little less sold on the efficacy of rampers /derampers influencing sp I am surprised anyone could expect to be paid for such a service.
I think where rampers /derampers are effective is in making traders take risks they might not otherwise take. I don't think ST who was a stand out ramper leading up to results day had much of an effect on sp, but I do their enthusiastism convinced to take the risk of buying on the way up. The sudden drop on results day could not have been the result of deramping, the drop was far too severe. It is overwhelming more likely that the rise and full was that result of more significant agency. Of the two rampers and derampers I find that derampers are the lesser evil, they at least encourge people to think about thier position rather than inculcate a corrosive fomo like the rampers.
I wonder if ST will make a return in November leading up to q4 update.
Jenny, I think you have got it spot on. The charts are informative, but it takes real skil to interpret them in a volitile market and they only hint at a possible future at best.
Personally I am more concerned if VAL offers quality. If the quality is there then there is reason to think we will get a return on investment over time as the mcap increases.
Nothing wrong with wanting to derisk either. There is the opportunity cost to consider as well after all. Talking of which I put my proceeds from selling half my VAL shares into BOO. I thought they had cleaned up thier act and then the sp dropped yesterday and people were posting links to stories about boohoo's alliedged links to money laundering! Oh well lol.
As for me I am keeping an eye on things this week. I think we are pretty much at bottom. The only thing that concerns me is the sp falling below the 50 day moving average as this would indicate furher downward movement is possible. I am very close to topping up though.
Comparing SAR and VAL can result in the check out fallicy, i.e. the other queue is moving faster. The fact is that the ponit of putting money into a small cap businesses is that there is scope to grow the business and this results in the increase in sp we are all looking for.
The big issue is whether the investment is an investment in quality. For years there was little to go on other than George's assertion that "it works". However since regime change we have reason to think that there is genuine quality in VAL, first there has been a number of TR1 shareholders, something that was simply impossible under the old regime. TR1 shareholders are not the sort to just throw tonnes of money at a company for no reason. There are also the interim results that are generally favorable. Lastly we are lucky enough to have posters on here who can give sensible evaluation of VAL products and study results. By all means consider putting money into the bio tech (s) of your choice, but if the company has quality, the longer you hold the more you can gain.
Not sure why there is such a marked difference in market cap, but as cancer treatments are such complex area I don't think it is a matter of having to choose a company as the one company that's going to cure cancer. I am in both Val and sclp. If people are interested in cancer focused biotechs there is no harm in investing in a few, just do your research first. The only other thing I would suggest is be careful about the weighting of cancer focused biotech in a portfolio. As we are all aware these can be very volitile shares so any investor should be careful to manage the risk of being exposed to that level of volitlity.
I use the 20, 50 and 200 day MAs as well.
At the begining of the year I was posting that the sp had been below the 200 day MA for petty much 100% of the time i.e. there was a stomg downward trend and I used this along with other arguments to militate for regime change. It was great that Freddie and ValJu were able to effect that regime change.
After regime change the sp started to rise, but I argued that there was still a lot of risk as we hadn't even been able to maintain a sp level for 20 days.
My use of the 20 and 200 day MAs helped me prevent taking unnecessary risks, however others who had averaged down in 2019 or brought in at the 3.5 to 7p (i.e. taking a risk I would not take) had brought shares at levels that would have resulted in fantastic gains.
I also keep an eye on the candlestick length. The longer the greater the buying or selling pressure. I used this a couple of years ago when I made a nice % gain on sclp. The price was going up but the candlestick bodies were getting shorter. On the Friday the candlestick body was short, I sold and I made a profit and I thought I had done well. When Monday came the price shot up furher and the candlestick body was longer again. (wick length is also interesting, it's an element that makes dragonfly and gravestone doji interesting).
The ponit is that graphical analysis is a useful tool and can be very helpful to help manage risks and help people walk away with profits rather than losses, but they do not predict the future. Of course those better versed in their use might have more profit than me under the same circumstances. I would recommend googling candlestick analysis, even a simple google search comes back with informative results. Looking forward to a good day today.
Knuttie, I am here to make money.
Why are you so twitchy about someone who takes ethical issues seriously?
You are the type of invester who puts me off.
Don't worry though, I won't be posting often I am interested in gains not opinions.
I brought into boo last week. The ethics of boohoo have been an issue for me. When I last scandal broke I was considering buying in because there were plenty on here saying it was old news and once the review was done I wasn't so opposed to buying into boohoo. I think it is fair to say that the rag trade is one presents a ethical risk because of the cost drivers and complex supply chains. Boohoo is certainly not the first fashion/clothing company to get caught out this way. However beyond that I have found certain posters on here off putting because they are willing to be complicit and turn a blind eye to ethical issues when their share price is compromised. I wouldn't want to associated with people who have such convenient views. I appreciate this could continue to rear its head again, but the proper responce is militate for better standards, not to turn a blind eye.