RE: Valuation19 Feb 2021 07:26
You could base it on actual profit but the growth will be significant so what would be the PE ratio to use ?
Just look at Tesla with their PE well over 1000. Its because the tech is disruptive simple PE multiple of 20 for argument sake is not how you value a business like PHE or AFC for that matter. Its not about justification of MCaps today but what they will be worth in the not too distant future.
One of the biggest considerations are the ESG credentials. PHE covers each of these very well so it can be considered an ethical investment.
Anyway, if we were looking to us PE ratios, a PE of 20 would be conservative. However, using that figure PHE would need 300 licences to pull in sufficient revenue and profit to achieve a £3bn MCap. That is not a number which is out of reach by any means. Howard White is talking 100 in Poland and perhaps 100 in each EU country (there is 44), 1000 in Thailand alone, then you have the 77 identified in the UK and not forgetting Asia, Australia and Americas.
So MCap as you can see is based upon potential which is also huge. 1000 units will bring revenues of £500m more or less risk free every year for 20-25 years. PHE do not have to manufacture the units or cover the cost for this.
Is a £280m MCap too high for a company with no revenue ? No its not, not with this tech and this potential. Just look at ITM and CWR not forgetting many other fuelcell and electrolyser companies.