RE: Dilution12 Jul 2020 19:45
I want, we should not look past the fact that this is an AIM company. Much of the valuation is based upon IP and potential, of which AFC have lots of both. To be positive, I would say that none of the potential is priced in.
Revenue is the next step for AFC as they commercialise the business with the Hydro x Cell (L) systems. Revenue is what is received by CWR and ITM and therefore they have potential priced in. I would not say that either of their valuations is based upon P/Es which are multiples of net profit as neither seem to have generated this yet.
Taking a look at CWR, much of their revenue is generated from licencing but they have very high operating costs covering R&D. I feel that AFC have done a superb job in keeping operating expenditure down and have been strategic in ensuring that partnerships such as that with De Nora have been worth while.
Because of these low operating costs at AFC there is a very good chance that AFC could become cash positive before someone like CWR and possibly ITM (have not really looked in much detail)
Alkamem could be sold or licenced. As they accelerate the development there is a fair chance that trials have been successful. So now, to produce in the size and scale required will take a little more development, but it feels close.
All this is adding fuel to the potential fire, whilst raising the value of the IP. They have done their R&D and have a commercial product, with some development remaining for the solid system which has been included in the £31.6m raise.
If AFC could be a little more open regarding pipeline or projections is would certainly help raise the 'potential' further. We may not see strong revenue until next year but it certainly won't be the only driver in raising the SP over the next 6 months.