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"The subs are what's been on my mind as particularly difficult. No-one knows where they are in theory if protocols are tightly adhered to. It means they cannot be easily dealt with."
Thats the purpose of the subs, deterrencd. US has plenty of them and they are basically impossible to defend against. So if Russia would be stupid enough to use them it would be the end of Russia as we know it as well. So not a good outcome for the world.
But it avoids the chicken race of if we strike first then we will save our self. Due to the subs both sides willl be able to strike regrdless of who strikes first.
I am not a fan of AB.
But, squif I do not understand why you go on and ramble what has been in the past. That is sunk cost and does not affect future returns.
You could argue that hustory shows rhat AB will botch it and Enq will not be a goof investment even with 90$ oil. If this is the case I do not understand why you are invested.
If you are invested it would be interesting to understand why and what upside you see.
"So what is incorrect with my approach to EV?"
Regarding leasing cost I would not add them to the EV. Or at least then you would need to adjust ebitda numbers as well.
How big are the contingent considerations and provisions?
The contigent considerations from my understanding is payments due to profit sharing. So not per se debt, but of course should affect market cap since it reduces cash flow in case they are paid out.
"there is zero chance of a dividend payment or share buybacks until our debt level is below $500m"
I think you are wrong, but probably right ;)
Doubt we will see dividend this year but next year I would expect one. And at the time of dividend we might have debt less than $500m. Assuming dividend is payed out Q2 next year.
"higher capex and decom I get a fcf of $480M for 2022. What does it take to get rid of this parasite??? He must be buddies with Boris."
LOL If 480M FCF for 2022 is the most negative you can come up with it is really good.
480M FCF with low risk to me sounds great. What do you think the share price should be with those numbers?
https://mfn.se/cis/a/enquest/enquest-plc-operations-update-55b35b81
MrC, so you are ok with no OU at all or RNS in february?
To me it is just decency to give a date.
As it is now eveyone speculates when it will come.
If you for some reason can not manage send out RNS and change the date. So do not see how a date would tie Enqs hands.
I guess it is just a cultural difference on what to expect from IR.
For ppl not participating in the Romaron Challenge please post your entries if you would like to participate as reply to this thread at latest end of monday 10/1.
Same rules as Romaron Challenge apply.
If you have the closest guess including the participants in Romaron challenge you will be considered to have won the inclusive competition.
What is the price for the Romaron challenge this year?
BR
/T
Realize I do no need to have a rule about participants.
If a person is not allowed to participate and there is less than 5 participants they have to beat the best in Romarons challenge to be eligable for the prize.
I am Swedish and and thus dislike games where not everybody can participate.
Due to this I am going to offer to sponsor same competition and same rules for ppl not allowed to take part in romarons competition.
Not really clear what the rules or prize is since i usually fall asleep before coming halfway through romarons posts.
Only rule I will have is that at least 5 participants otherwise it just becomes silly. And also need to know what the value of the prize is before commiting 100%. Since I am in Sweden the prize would be in form of gift card or something else with same value easily transferrable.
Alternatively it will be handed over at the 60p party.
As always very humble romaron.
If one would have followed your "build it and they will come" mantra. For what is it now 5 years? How much money would I have made in Enquest?
So maybe should not go around being jerk toward ppl trading Enquest and actually making som money.
"Don't want to be a party pooper towards renewables but can they find the labour to carry on the crusade?"
I doubt we see anything above PE5 on fossil fuels companies. That is IMO a correct maximum. Climate change is real and there will be very hard decisions and a lot of investment to reduce fossil fuel usage.
Regardless what your opinion is the world has choosen to go a other way. This is good for oi prices but not the multiples of oil companies.
Luckily with rising oil prices PE5 is more than is needed for ENQ to be very good investment.
BTW saw that UK is planning to get around 10% of electricity from Marocco around 2030. Apparantly plans to building a big wind and solar park. No idea how probable that this actually happens.
Thanks alot L3. Very informative. Was wondering how it worked with KRG.
And it seems that is what is holding back the oil shares of Kurdistan producers.
I looked a bit more on Gulf Keystone. Would really make Pelle smile. They had 21% dividend yield already this year.
Valued as Enquest, no debt and production of 44k/day that should increase to 50-55.
https://twitter.com/AlaliQasem/status/1441321913414926337?s=20
But will probably keep out of Kurdistan oil producers due to KRG.
Hi,
asking here since you are clearly a smart bunch owning Enquest.
I have Enquest and AOI (africa).
Anybody have any tip on same kind of valuation on companies in US and Canada?
Pareto (norwegian brokerage) is recommending two UK listed companies Genel Energy and Gulf Keystone. Both active in Kurdistan anybody owning them?
I would try to be more humble Romaron and not be a d**k at every chance.
Very fast on complaining about skills of others.
Here is a post by from the past from you:
"RE: Investing26 Feb 2020 14:21
The market is acting like this is the end of civilisation. The virus attacks the old, weak and feeble so oil is a good target as that has been the narrative of fossil fuels. We're only 10 years old and very healthy. We'll survive."
Did it work out well with this opinion?
I assume you were a doctor, CFA and I do not what other degress you need to have said something that stupid in hindsight.
I sold out Enquest beginning of feb 2020 and bought back end of 2020.
Do I think I am the smartest guy in the world, no alot of luck. Especially the buying back
part.
https://www.ft.com/content/c21eb656-8d09-45ce-a13a-7d8419426b05
If true very good for oil prices. But sounds very unamerican that they would not increase production as quick as they possible could at prices above 80. Lets see what happens, but my bet would be that we see quick increase from shale if they can have costless collar with a bottom at 70-80 dollars.
"as oxygen say's, the estimate is around the end of September, not by the end of September."
If you do a deal in february and say it will finish around end of september, then you should finish in september.
They had ample time and reiterated end of september multiple times. The least they could do is to do another RNS with information and new date.
And whay worries me aswell is the wording in tbe email from IR posted here. Something about partly protected if it finishes late, if I recall correctly.