Member Info for Bamps21

Saffron is in my opinion still a company maker.
The 3 horizons even though not thick could still produce at commercial rates.
When you look back at LGO wells in Goudron the Lower Cruse was very thin but produced the huge initial rates seen at some of the wells. This tailed off dramatically as we all know so what's different, well it's the updip situation. The oil is being pressured towards the updip trap/traps at the 3 horizons if managed properly these should continue to produce. I believe Cerp are managing it correctly and will get the best outcome.
However if this doesn't go to plan the Middle Cruse looks commercial and will still produce revenue growth. I would imagine it to be 50-100 barrels at $40 that's $2,000-4,000 per day $730,000-1,460,000 per annum 2 year pay back.
The Chinese problem won't last forever, growth will return with a sudden jump in oil prices.
With the $4.2m from Prd one of the 12 targets can be started or which I would prefer boost Suriname and South Erin for quick returns and more infills on Bonasse

Nervousness is definitely showing on this board let's just take one step back an look at what's happening.
Oil prices are slipping due to 2 reasons the coronavirus in China stunting growth and oil demand, and the Libyan civil war (that is explained on the oilprice.com)
Schroders are selling out due to company policy of exiting from oil.
I have posted before that this quarter would be a difficult one financially based on the planned work programme in my opinion.
Saffron testing is still ongoing and seems to be hampered by ministry approval, the financials for revenues per barrel are still very good at $40 I'm still very optimistic .

On the Prd board they seem quite adamant that they want Prd to buy Innis,
That would mean $4.2m coming Cerp way probably by diluting their shares. They seem to think that buying Fram will give them access to the workover rig and crew. I doubt that will happen.
Suriname is progressing, oil from Sept

Yes you can have some of this water round Worcester at least Peter is half way up the Malverns:))

Hi Chesh
He is having a hard time at the moment full time care for his wife and says he has no time for anything and not looked at this board for ages. I am in contact through e mail and he looks forward to me updating him. He can't meet at lunchtime now either. I feel for him not something I would not like to do in my eighties .
He thanked you for your support
ATB:))

Hi Tom
That's our Georgie behind the bar, lovely girl. Water going down a bit roads are opening but Shrewsbury is flooding that's 2 more days to get to here.
The Fleet inn at Twyning might be copping it now that's a nice pub on the Avon it's near Tewkesbury

Hi troubles, Tom
Things not good here, Malvern not flooded but very difficult to get anywhere and supermarket shelves emptying.
Floods in Worcester higher than 2007 and a lot muddier.
The Rose and Crown at Severn Stoke is about 4-5' under. I'm worried it won't reopen, when it goes I will offer my help.
At Upton they spent £6m on lifting the road opened a couple of months ago is a foot under.
Oh well keep smiling

Peters not having a good time at moment, so I'm wishing all the best.

I've missed out the word 'support' from my last post, phones playing up , the floods around Worcester must be effecting it

I'm quite surprised at all your thank you.
I would just like to clear one thing up, I did originally filter LLL but to be fair to him does debate subjects even though they are on the negative side of things.

On the CO2 subject I've spent a lot of time reading on the subject as I was on the side of Cerp not selling the asset.
After strong sense of opinion on the Prd board against working with Cerp I hope they do buy it.
When you read and study the last 3-4 Rns of Prd regarding the pilot it's becoming clear to me that the economics are against it.
One remark by their expert says they will achieve from 50% of the recoverable reserves from the Herarra 2 layer.
That means the pilot is only tackling 50% of the recoverable reserves and from the Rns it doesn't sound like they are going for the bottom layers
They seem to have blinkers on , on that board
I decided to sell my remaining few shares on that share.

My local pub underwater, not sure if it will ever reopen:((
Worcester is in a right mess today worst since 2007 , main bridge shut
Only one way to get to Malvern.
Load of photos on Worcester News web site, an aerial shot of Powick Roundabout is quite staggering

Hi Zebra
Prd have funded everything to do with the CO2 injection above ground. Cerp have carried out works to below ground with their workover rig and crew it's not Fram's so won't be included in any sell.

Bit short sighted if you still believe they will be better without Cerp, the $4.2m could become a millstone at these prices.
A joint venture is still the best economical answer for both parties in my view
ATB:))

Hi Zebra, MrMM
If you read back on the Rns from mid 2018 the economics is based on an oil price of upto $68 and the project is made viable by allowing for historical Fram losses against spt
A WTI price of $68 is still only about $37 to Cerp or PRD
With the price of oil dropping to $50 this is the worst possible scenario with the spt tax. $49 is much better as this would give revenues of about $37
Buying Fram is going to cost $4.2m not only that they will be funding all underground work as well which they haven't done so far plus the CO2 costs and all the dealings with Heritage which Cerp have been doing at the moment.
They will also need to source a rig and crew, I doubt very much that Cerp will allow theirs to go in that sell they are like gold dust on Trinidad.
Both firms need each other and to share costs so in my mind to go on their own which either one is going to be a struggle
ATB:))

Hi LGO
I can assure you I am not onceatrader , I don't trade (short) and I always try to help people.
Being attacked with a keyboard is not pleasant but I don't really give a damn.
I like this Board but it's time to call it a day

Hi Garnheim
Cerp would have to buy CO2 from an additional source as Prd apparently have sown that market up.
There's 5m tonnes of ammonia production in Trinidad at present that produces approx 2.8m tonnes of carbon dioxide for each tonne so that's 15m tonnes most of which has customers. Massy being the main supplier.
Working together I think Cerp and Prd is a good bet
Goudron though is a long way off CO2 injection, firstly it's pumping then water flood and last is CO2 but Snowcap looks promising.
I wouldn't be keen on joint venture with some of the companies in Trinidad but only my opinion
ATB:))

I'm of the opinion that Cerp and Prd should continue their joint venture especially as their working very well together.
The benefits for Cerp of a sale is obvious they need the cash to progress their list of assets and also the CO2 supply but the long term financials outway the sale
The benefits for PRD I'm not so sure from an economical point of view
Why
The pilot programme recoverable reserves contain an estimated 890,000 barrels 10% of which can't be recovered so say 800,000 at 350per day = 6 years of production
Cerp have quoted $30 revenue at $60 WTI
But that has come down to $50 so revenues will be around the $25 per barrel
350 bopd x $25 = $3.2m per annum
It will take about 85 days to recover the costs and then Cerp will be entitled to half the revenues
Costs are capped at $10 per barrel so 350x15 =$1.9m divided by 2 =$950,000 per annum for 6 years
This would increase slightly if the spt was not enforced such as WTI below $50
Taking the pilot on it's own it doesn't look viable in my opinion without taking Fram's losses against spt into account.
If the sale goes ahead PRD will have all the costs involved in the maintenance and future CO2 project.
Working as a joint venture the costs are shared
What's in it for Cerp, the reserves will still be classed as an asset for Cerp, continued annual income, future joint ventures with PRD on possibly 5 producing assets and Suriname.
It's only my opinion, hope I have explained it ok
ATB:))

Hi Tom
If you sold £12k and moved it into an ISA there is no cgt
But if you sell £20 and moved it into an ISA you would have to declare the £8k.
Setting up a Trust is the best way to avoid IHT in my opinion
ATB:))

Hi Nige
When I went to see my HSBC bank manager he was trying to get me to open some sort of Trust. You can put your assets into it for your kids , sounds like you need to make an appointment:))

I really don't know what point you are trying to get over my post said "there is no evidence of a bund in the photo and the tanks could be duelled skinned" if you would take the time to look at those sites skids are well used to save expense of craneage.
In my life in construction I have constructed many large projects including the M5 split level section and an oil refinery.
Many site fascilities included double skinned diesel tanks that did not require bunds and many came on skids. Even cement silos come on skids.
As I said I don't really understand your argument apart from calling me an 8 year old.
Signing off better things to do

Real term answers
Tankstore ltd
Roskarentals.com
Standing 400 barrel tanks on you tube

Do you need anymore evidence that skids and double skinned tanks are used

Hi Vmax
Nice to hear from you again
If you google 400 barrel tanks you will see that similar to ones in the photo indeed come on skids and the more expensive ones are doubled skinned.
There designed for ease of transport and unloading
ATB:))

Hi neon
The successful injection of the wells provides hope that this is going to be a success, the only thing that concerns me is that the project is only viable if Fram's losses are put against the spt tax.
There is only 890,000 barrels in the pilot reserves so a max of 6-7 years.

I still can't see where Prd are going to get 4.2m from to buy it outright without more dilution then there's the cost of the project.

I still believe that both parties should see this project through to the end together, as they seem to be working well as partners