Member Info for Bamps21

Hi Redtrader

Until the Decline gets going again we are not going to know what kind of advancement they are going to achieve.

Shaun at the Town Hall talked very positively about the type of rock in the aquifer and then went on to describe how much better the rock is below the cover for mining.

Going back to the 4 layers above the lower aquifer the best average rate I saw was 5.5m per day, so in a better rock they should accomplish 6m per shift easily.

6m is the measure of how far the jumbo can drill in and the explosives can break up the rock. The lower aquifer rock will be easier to drill and break up quicker than the softer rock.

There is the question of stability as the advancement is governed by the mathematics, ie it can’t advance further than the height of the Decline 6.5m.

During going through the lower aquifer the ventilation is not sufficient yet to support 2 shifts.

As the ventilation improves through the basement rocks with the introduction of an Evasee fan at surface more shifts can be introduced plus additional mining fronts will become available.

There’s 2 mining faces immediately available in the lower aquifer so one team can be more efficient and may achieve greater than 6m straight away.

Byrnecut teams are currently working on the Telfer underground this will be running down from H2/24, these will start to become available for Havieron Development Ore and mining fronts.

The main team will keep driving the Decline lower.

Zoros timeline is about right but a bit optimistic on the Development Ore but expect advancement rates to keep increasing as more ventilation becomes available and more gangs move over from Telfer.

If the Production phase doesn’t start at the time the Decline recommences , my one concern is another hold point but Shaun didn’t seem to think it was a problem from earlier comms.

The Lower aquifer cannot be compared with the 2 upper aquifers. The top one was very problematic, it has a clay content from memory I think it was between 10 & 20%. Water and clay are very difficult to work through as compacted clay is impervious if you drill a hole into it the water may not flow towards it.

When disturbed the structural strength is very poor resulting in advancement of 0.5m per day.

The middle aquifer is thinner but is sandstone and water will flow through it. The structural strength when disturbed is also poor but not as bad as the top aquifer. I believe this is non confined aquifer so water flows through it.

The Lower confined aquifer could be ancient water trapped in this strata.

The rock is soaked like a sponge made from the debris of ancient glaciers . Structurally very sound but allows water to trickle through it. Once dryish the Decline can proceed safely at a more advantageous rate.

The evaporation ponds at surface are not showing a lot of water build up from the satellite images. This is either the evaporation rate is equalling the pumping rate or the pumping rate has fallen and the evaporation rate is lower.

A lot of cloud cover like yesterday will reduce the evaporation rate.

Higher rainfall will also dilute the saline solution so the drying salt’s won’t be so apparent.

In my own mind I feel this break is intentional for the contracts to change from an exploration Decline to a Production Decline and still awaiting approvals ( only conjecture on my part but seems logical).

Anyway the aquifer will not be a problem once the Decline recommences.

Yes I mentioned at 8.4moz we have enough tonnage to sit between Switzerland and Japan in the global league 🙂👍

Ninetopprizesof how to be a total prat

Ninetopprizesof how to be a total pillock

Hi Npsol

You should have introduced yourself 🙂

I had to say something to give the session an end.

I only said you all know me as Bamps and the room fell apart laughing 😆 great fun

This is from 2 wheelman as he’s on the bus going home

“Hi Bamps, good to meet you and Richard tonight. I did make a few notes as follows:

The 220m offered by the 3 banks for the 30% could easily be scaled upto 730 for 100% of Hav, but may need 1 or 2 extra banks to spread exposure. SD also said some hedging of the gold price may be looked at to give the banks additional security in that scenario. Plan would be to get a starter mine up and running to get FCF asap, then scale up...said they'd spent 3 yrs I think unpacking what that looked like.

Suggested Ggp's Last right of refusal would deter other bidders for Hav// telfer but stressed several times that he thought this process would be relationship driven.

He seemed very confident as though things are progressing in the background but obviously couldn't say as much. I came away confident in my investment but things won't happen overnight.“

Thank you Donald for organising such a great event one of the best even though Shaun never gave anything away.

Right of last refusal very advantageous

Sorry to make everybody laugh 🤣

Hi Ace

I would have to check but there is a closure document, I would be very surprised if there wasn’t a bond to cover the reclamation costs.

I believe I’ve seen a figure of $500m but don’t hold me to it.

The closure costs should come out of the bond.

On some / most construction projects there are bonds redeemable after completion and maintenance periods lodged with a third party bank.

The closure costs should be redeemable

Hi SAS

From what I’ve seen the reclamation costs are $500m and that would go on liabilities but Telfer has a lot of assets and someone else mentioned the 2 processing trains are worth a fair wedge which would go on current assets.

Using Royalties would be a good way of paying towards the cost of purchase.

The other thing Newcrest must have been doing is putting cash into a bond to cover future reclamations. This would be in a closure plan as part of the approval system.

The government is not going to let Newmont walk away from their responsibilities.

Hi SAS

It’s probably a 2% Royalty fee, that’s what I’m expecting

Hi PP123

I was stood right by him when he said it.

Forget that it won’t happen it’s too far

Rio will not be interested, Full Stop.

Hi Dip

At the last TH Shaun did say the water volumes were higher than first thought, maybe due to further drilling information.

It’s nothing to do with cyclones and heavy rain early last year as this is a contained aquifer with probably ancient water

175,000 m2

Hi Dip

The volumes of water were reported a few years back in the Hydrological Surveys, these volumes were estimated in between a high P90 to low P10. On the high case scenario the evaporation ponds were designed and the hypersaline pond ( the big one ) is 175km2.

I don’t know the exact height but I think it’s 6m, 0.7m for wave height and a 1:100 year flood event.

Shaun said at one TH that the water volumes are on the low side.

If the water is being pumped out from the base of a confined aquifer the strata will dry out from the top of it , therefore allowing the Decline to commence in dryer conditions even if the bottom has still a water volume.

Regarding the decline workers flying back , they might well be working on the Decline at Havieron ( I hope so) but some of those guys work underground at Telfer

Hi SKWalker

Shaun never responded to me questioning my thoughts that the dimensions were incorrect but they’re definitely at the hold point.

Well they were apparently the Decline crew flew back to Telfer from Perth last Thursday

Latest satellite image

Little change

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=777

Latest image suggests maybe they’ve started again

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=873