Member Info for Bamps21

Hi MF

Didn’t quite get your point on the maintenance.

There are 2 trains at Telfer they both have annual shutdowns for maintenance, I’m not sure if they are both down at the same time.

If there will only be 1 train working for Havieron ore, where will any Telfer Ore go unless he’s going to stop the Telfer production to cut costs.

They can’t do the maintenance off site.

I didn’t hear what he said about that.

Hi Speedie

Yes in Newcrest’s last report for Jun22-Jun23 it was $1633 and costs have risen and revenues falling since.

It needs a smaller entity to make it more efficient.

Havieron still needs that plant and also the tailings for the paste fill.

Keeping 30% there is no Telfer costs but a tolling charge.

Gaining the 100% would gain extra costs on Havieron site and a tolling charge.

Having the lot means paying for the plant and all costs for running Telfer but no tolling charge only transport costs

Hi Speedie

I presume your $2500 bounce is based on keeping 30%

The AISC will increase with 100%

Having Telfer is unpredictable effect on the AISC

The 2 mines together could see well over $2000

I’m interested in seeing the copper price accelerate but short term forecasts see a retrace to $3.80, but with large mines struggling to produce enough for demand the long term forecast is nearer $5.50.

This works out at 0.6% at around $15-20m per month profit.

The gold price needs to remain high if Ggp get Telfer

Hi MH

Well I got through half of it.

Havieron hasn’t got oxide ores, it’s pyrrhotite based.

It has magnets to remove or reduce the pyrites.

Telfer has issues with high sulphur content especially in the West Dome.

Train 2 has been converted or in the process of to accept Havieron ores, the 2 ores will not be mixed which is what I’ve been saying for a long time they’re not compatible.

That also goes for the sulphides and breccia at Havieron, they need to keep the high grades going for as long as possible as there’s more value. 3mt pa is probably a maximum to achieve this.

If you believe that De Grey is a better ore do some research before investing in it.

Hi Spud

Too expensive to drill from surface and the depth is too great for most drill rigs.

There needs to be an exploration drive into the ore body so that the underground rigs are not drilling through waste rock and the cores contain mineralised ore.

These rigs are not capable of drilling 1,000m so it will be a progressive drilling campaign from many exploration drives all the way down.

As I’ve said before the sulphides must have come from the source that could be 3,5,10kms down. 2.5km to 3 km would have to be a limit though and would be many years away.

Hi Leicslad

I have thought about that but the gold price would have the same effect on the ones they are keeping .

Those 2 fatalities on the Cerro negro project that they are keeping might make them change their minds on that one, but that’s just my thoughts. It will have a huge effect on that project for sometime and it’s not a Tier 1 yet.

Telfer though is a huge liability and Newmont need their capex funds elsewhere.

They have a willing buyer in Ggp, I can’t see Newmont keeping it.

Oops

Ggp gave an IRR27% @ $1700

🙂

The question whether a rising gold price will increase Havieron reserves by 5% per $100 is doubtful on the Starter mine crescent reserves.

However it will have a dramatic effect on the financial instruments used to determine its viability.

The reserves for the 2mt pa mine plan have now been well defined and Ggp issued their own 3mt pa mine plan with increased boundaries to increase the knowledge of the boundaries. The gold price won’t or can’t affect these boundaries.

The last MRE from Ggp did not issue a reserve figure only resources. These resources have set boundaries, the higher gold prices will increase the gold equivalent value depending on which formula is used.

The resource tonnage was shown at 36mt, the gold price won’t effect this tonnage. The only way to increase this tonnage is by underground drilling but the top 750m or so have been defined so the increase can only happen at depth.

The PFS gave IRR assumptions from Newcrest of:-

IRR16% @ $1400 gold price

IRR 33% @ $2000 gold price

Ggp gave an IRR27% @ $2700

These were for a 2mt plan a 3mt plan may be lower rates.

IRR are used to report future annual income rates for projects in many industries .

From the IRR is calculated NPV values.

As far as other ore outside the MRE the rising gold price has a dramatic effect on the inferred and resources where the boundaries are ill defined . The cut off values can be reduced to allow more economically viable ore to be included in the quantities.

Also the gold price affects the NSR cut offs.

At Havieron the NSR cut off for the Starter mine is $80 with a rising price this allows for more ore within those boundaries to become more economically viable.

Bit long but I hope you understood it.

The rising gold price is a huge beneficial assistance to the robust viability of Havieron.

Oh no I haven’t

You’re not wrong there MH.

Https://groundcover.grdc.com.au/innovation/precision-agriculture-and-machinery/pros-and-cons-of-deep-ripping-on-an-angle

This is similar to how they will remediate the tailings dams, waste rock mounds and the leach pads tops. Top soil if any will be used on the embankments

Hi Spades and Jerry

I still think buying Telfer is a huge leap forward for Ggp .

Telfer needs careful handling on the last years of its life, by that I mean it will benefit a smaller entity to get more out of it.

Big conglomerates are only interested in big number crunching.

Ggp should a meaningful contribution to Telfer.

There are still some inferred and indicated resources that may be converted to the next category not a great but some more may be able to convert to reserves. Newcrest’s published Reserves report shows the conversion from 29mt resources to 2mt reserves that’s a huge drop, so a chance to recover some of these possibly for a smaller leaner company.

Newcrest have exploring around Telfer for many years so I’m assuming they’ve accounted for everything. The price of strong gold may bring other targets in play.

The only place I’ve seen a potential anomaly is under the camp and airport from a 2002 report.

There are other anomalies further away from the mine that Newcrest have not found anything substantial, now whether a smaller entity would have a different view I wouldn’t like to comment.

There are a lot of rumours and ifs involved.

The EPA submission that I posted should give people a better feel for the rehabilitation procedures / costs. Most of this work has been an ongoing process and there are many photos on that link to prove it, so I don’t believe there will be high costs.

The benefits of Telfer to Havieron are many but the mine side is diminishing rapidly and talk of high production ounces in the foreseeable future looks overdone.

A negative value is probably about right and the -$240m value of Grant Samuel would reflect decommissioning the plant.

When you look at Newmont quarterly results they are forecasting AISC$2,470 with a $35m of sustaining capital.

Newcrest results from last June are indicating a conversion factor of 6 or 7% from 29mt down to 2mt for the underground this is quoted as 2.1g/t.

There’s been 6 months of production since then to Dec23 2 quarters

84,000 oz or 4.3mt in Sep quarter

43,000 oz or 2.3 mt in Dec quarter

These 2 are a mixture with a grade of 0.61 g/t.

Newcrest were expecting depletion by early FY25 so that’s Jun24- Sep24 but they stopped production due to the dam, so will be later.

There’s no development costs forecast in Newmont results suggesting funding for another cutback is not there.

From these figures I can’t see where 250,000oz will be achieved and may or may not last into the New Year.

That’s only my opinion from published resources I’ve no idea if they have found more.

There’s no top soil issue that I am aware of there was hardly any anyway.

https://www.epa.wa.gov.au/sites/default/files/Referral_Documentation/A1445_R1059_Telfer%20ARI%20Report-main_0.pdf

Page 164/5

I’m expecting record Havieron advance rates through this aquifer.

It’s not like the geology of the other 2 aquifers the Decline has gone through. It’s glacial Tillite ie sand, gravel and boulders compressed over many millions of years forming a structurally sound layer that’s permeable.

When the rock is structurally sound the mathematical advancement can be no more than the greater of the width or height of the Decline which in this case is 6.5m.

Through the first aquifer which had a high clay content the advancement some days was only 0.5m.

The second aquifer was sandstone, wet sandstone is hard to deal with , when disturbed it can go anywhere.

When the Decline gets below the last aquifer into the bedrock further increases in the advancement should be expected.

Getting 250,000oz from Telfer might not be worth it.

The AISC at the moment is over 2,500 per oz.

There will be a limit of 10m tons through one train plus the leach pads.

10mt is 250,000oz at around 0.75 g/t any lower means ounces per 10mt.

Eg:- 15.5mt is 250,000oz at 0.5g/t

The leach pad is for grades below 0.3g/t.

If Ggp get Telfer I would put the open pits on care and maintenance until more exploration finds further targets. This is where the grades are low, Ggp would not have built funds up to fund further cutbacks.

From Newcrests reports the underground grades are 0.3-0.5g/t

Going to be a juggling effect but better to get the ore from Havieron before funding week ore projects

Hi Texlax

Using a gold only AISC of $1080 gives a clearer picture of what gold increases do for gold.

When you are looking at running Telfer and Havieron 100% the gold revenues cover all the costs and leave around $100m over per year.

The increasing copper price is the one to watch that is all pure profit if the gold pays all costs $150-$300 pa depending on price and grade % received.

Newmont pulling out of that jv looks really good for Ggp to get back the Juri 100%.

Antipa sounded confident of NEM funding their drilling on the Parklands target, that doesn’t look so optimistic now.

After Easter should get interesting as news unfolds.

Now is definitely not the time to sell

https://www.mining.com/web/gold-stocks-spring-rally-2024/

A very long explanation of what is happening.

“This upleg has a long way to go”

I think that is just indicating that the pumping out volumes increasing and the increase to the original pond modelling not necessarily the aquifer modelling. I doubt if that would be far wrong but additional water could enter from other underground reservoirs.

Hydrological surveys are quite specific and shouldn’t be far away from initial modelling.